In our latest installment of the “Saturday Script” series, we dove deep into the number crunching to reveal the impact of an NFL Wide Receivers’ height on their fantasy football performance. Our research in Part 4 has unveiled two critical ranges regarding the height of top-performing receivers. These ranges are a “soft range” where noticeable increases in performances occur, and a “hard range” where more significant increases occur. Further, we highlight five rookies worth keeping an eye on due to being within the “hard range.”
Methodology: Meticulous Wide Receiver Data Mining
Our search for answers began with compiling the top 50 fantasy football wide receivers for every year since 2003. To maintain consistency and try to eliminate variables, we sourced our data exclusively from NFL draft combine measurements. This approach allowed us to draw comparisons on a level playing field, examining how physical attributes measured at the beginning of careers influences future success.
Initial Findings: Seeking Patterns Amidst the Numbers
The first step in our analysis was to calculate the average heights for the top 1, 5, 10, 11-30th and 31-50th place finishers for every season.
At first glance, the data hinted at a subtle trend: the top 5 finishers appeared on average to be slightly taller than the 11-30th and 31-50th finishers. Although, this trend was not clear enough to declare this conclusion.
A Deep Dive into Detailed Wide Receiver Analytics
Unsatisfied with the averages, we transitioned to a more segmented evaluation. Therefore, we plotted the heights of every top 10 NFL wide receiver since 2003 on a chart in 1/8 inch increments. Mirroring this, we also charted the bottom 10 NFL wide receivers to create a visual comparison. Both can be seen below:
As performance increased, an increase in height at both the 6’0” and 6’2.75” marks became apparent. To solidify our findings, we constructed a differences chart. This compares each height segment (and the subsequent quarter inch) among the top finishers while subtracting the corresponding data from the bottom 10. Essentially, the Top 10 finishers chart minus the Bottom 10 Finishers chart (seen above) for each .25 inch beginning at the indicated height. This process revealed a significant range where height appears to be a predictive factor in a wide receiver’s performance. Between 6’2.5″ and 6’2.75″ you’ll see the largest increase indicating higher performances within this threshold. Then you add the .25″ that this chart includes at the indicated height and you get a range from 6’2.5″ to 6’3″ being the best range.
Soft Height Range: A General Observation
Our first significant finding showcases what we term as the “soft range” for receiver heights, spanning from 5’11” to 6’3”. This interval was initially identified as a common height range among high-performing receivers. Although, this wasn’t where the most notable differences in performance metrics were observed.
Hard Height Range: The Performance Leap
Contrastingly, the “hard range,” a more narrow and specific interval between 6’2.5″ and 6’3″, is where we noticed the highest increase in performance. This range can be seen on the differences chart above. Moving forward in this study, this “hard range” is our focal point for further analysis since it seemed to be the sweet spot for receiver height correlating with superior on-field effectiveness.
Extensive Data Analysis
To solidify our newfound focal point, we compared the height metrics of 840 receivers who ranked between 11th to 50th in performance during the same period under review. 51 of these athletes fell within our identified height range, representing 6.1%. This number served as a baseline so we can compare back to the top 10 performers to see if we found an average NFL wide receivers’ height, or if we found an average top performing NFL wide receivers’ height.
A Surprising Trend Among Top Wide Receiver Performances
To figure this out, we took the dive into examining the top 10 finishers from 2003 to 2023. 26 out of 210 top finishers were within the defined height range, accounting for 12.4%. This represented a subtle yet notable 6.3% increase over the baseline, indicating a stronger correlation between this specific height range and peak performance levels.
Decadal Comparisons: Shifting Trends
In pursuing further insights, we compared the prevalence of this “hard range” across different decades, specifically looking at top 10, 11-40th, and bottom 10 finishers. The findings were as follows:
- 2004-2013:
- Top 10: 12%, 11-40th: 7.7%, bottom 10: 2%.
- 2014-2023:
- Top 10: 14%, 11-40th: 5.3%, bottom 10: 8%.
This decade analysis suggests a gradual shift towards receivers being higher performing within this hard range than not.
Looking Forward: 2024 Rookie Wide Receivers
In our investigation of how the rookie wide receiver class in the NFL matched up with this specific height criteria, we classified them into three distinct groups based on their heights: those within the “hard height range,” within just the “soft height range,” and those falling outside both ranges. Again, the soft range is 5’11” to 6’3″ and the hard range is from 6’2.5″ to 6’3″. The findings are as follows:
In hard range
Brian Thomas
Rome Odunze
Cornelius Johnson
In soft range
Malik Nabers
Xavier Worthy
Adonai Mitchell
Brenden Rice
Xavier Legette
Ladd McConkey
Troy Franklin
Jermaine Burton
Ryan Flournoy
Luke McCaffrey
Jamari Thrash
Jalen McMillan
Devontez Walker
Jalen Coker
Ja’Lynn Polk
Javon Baker
Bub Means
Outside soft range
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Keon Coleman
Roman Wilson
Johnny Wilson
Anthony Gould
Jacob Cowing
Lideatrick Griffin
Jha’Quan Jackson
DeVaughn Vele
Malik Washington
Isaiah Williams
Conclusion
The exploration into NFL Receiver heights has revealed two distinct ranges with varying degrees of correlation to on-field success. The hard height range, in particular, stands out as a the more significant performance booster, which ranges from 6’2.5″ to 6’3″. By no means do we think if a player is outside the hard or soft range that they will not be a good NFL player, but using analytics to help aide your opinions on players is a smart tactic.
More Data Next Week!
Stay tuned for our weekly data-driven explorations which will be released every Saturday. We will dive deep into the world’s most intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis similar to this. We thrive on curiosity and welcome your input—so please, leave comments or reach out to us with topics you’re eager to see dissected next. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 5 of The Saturday Script is an examination of Wide Receiver Weights: Does that impact performance? If so, what’s the ideal weight for a WR? Your insights and questions fuel our research, so join us in this analytical journey. Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a short question and we will go to work for you!
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