Can College Career ADOT Help Predict A Wide Receivers’ NFL Success?
05/24/2025
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In part 60 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we dove into the question of whether a college Wide Receiver’s career Average
Nico Collins, standing at 6’4” and weighing 215lbs, represents a situation worth monitoring for fantasy football owners. Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2021 NFL Draft out of Michigan, Collins boasts the physical attributes and the draft capital investment that makes him an intriguing prospect. However, as we dive into the reasons for retaining, buying, or selling Nico Collins in fantasy football leagues, several factors emerge. These factors all culminate in us urging a cautious hold position for Collins.
Nico Collins is on the verge of becoming an unrestricted free agent after the upcoming season. This precarious position places Collins in a limbo of sorts. While he has demonstrated his capability on the field, his future with the Texans is far from certain. In an offense full of talents such as Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Dalton Schultz, and Tank Dell, the question arises whether Collins is a long-term option for the Texans. This uncertainty is the main gist of the argument for holding Collins in fantasy football. The potential for a change of scenery introduces a level of risk that shouldn’t be ignored.
The Houston Texans’ offensive lineup shines with stars that could potentially overshadow Collins. The presence of powerhouse names like Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon complicates the target distribution for Collins. Moreover, with emerging talents like Tank Dell in the mix, the team’s offensive game plan may not be in Collins’ favor. While his individual talent is undeniable, fantasy success often hinges on opportunity and target share. This makes his situation less than ideal if you were looking for a reason to have confidence in his depth chart spot.
On the brighter side, Collins had an exceptional year. He accumulated 1,297 yards and 8 touchdowns in CJ Stroud’s emerging year which cannot be overlooked. The duo’s chemistry on the field appears phenomenal and presents a justified argument for Collins’ potential long-term value. Should the Texans decide to capitalize on this chemistry long-term, Collins’ fantasy stock could soar. However, this potential alone is not sufficient to warrant an outright buy amidst the uncertainties we’ve mentioned here.
Collins’ draft capital and physical advantages gives him a foundation that can’t be ignored. A high draft pick reflects the Texans’ faith in his abilities and a reason for them to feel the need to start him. Further, his build is ideal for an NFL wide receiver. These factors contribute to his appeal as a fantasy asset but must be balanced against the broader context of his situation.
Given these factors – pending free agency, competitive team depth chart, undeniable chemistry with CJ Stroud, and solid physical and draft foundation – Collins becomes a cautious hold in fantasy football. The potential is there, but so is the uncertainty. If Collins is already on your roster, hold and be ready to sell if needed. Monitor how his situation unfolds, particularly how the Texans address his impending free agency and his role in the offense. If you don’t have him, it’s too risky of a gamble to pursue him. It’s a wait-and-see approach, one that acknowledges both the promise and the potential downfall.
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