Linebacker Weight: Does It Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis

In Part 35 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked to find whether a linebacker’s weight could predict their success in the NFL. By crunching the numbers, we found an optimal weight range that might help inform your future rookie draft decisions.

Methodology

To conduct this research, we examined the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003. The “bottom 10”, which you will see throughout this study, is defined as those finishing 41st-50th each season.

Why the top 50? Choosing the top 50 allowed us to find a “happy medium.” Examining past this would involve fringe roster players, unlikely to finish within the top 10 rankings, thereby just skewing our data. By focusing on the 41st-50th place finishers, we were still able to get a comparison between the best and the worst.

LB Weight Averages Chart Analysis

To begin, we created an averages chart which highlights the average weights of players finishing in the top 5, top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th since 2003. Interestingly, our data suggested a subtle trend: smaller linebackers seemed to finish in the top 5 more frequently than those in the 31st-50th slots. In 13 out of the 21 seasons (62%), top 10 finishers exhibited the same, or lower, average weights compared to those in the bottom 10.

Segmented Top and Bottom 10

For a more in depth analysis, we segmented the top 10 finishers’ weights into 1-pound increments. This data revealed a slight lean towards weights around 242 pounds within the top 10, driven mainly by the large increase at 242 pounds.

Differences Chart

To uncover an optimal weight range, we constructed our differences chart. This tool compared the top 10 performers to the bottom 10 across incremental weight brackets, specifically focusing on each weight, plus the next 5 pounds. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the desired consistent top level performances we are hoping for. By looking at each weight, adding the next 5-pound increments, and subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10 results, initial findings highlighted 256 pounds as a possible top-end threshold. We will next attempt to verify, or debunk, this threshold.

Verifying the Optimal LB Weight Range

We next wanted to verify the 256 pounds and below threshold. By using our spreadsheet. After running the numbers, we found that adjusting the range to 217-252 pounds prevailed the highest producing range. This range boasted an 18.8% higher appearance rate in top-10 finishers since 2003 when compared to the bottom 10. Therefore, this is our optimal range and will be the subject of this research going forward.

Establishing the Critical Weight Threshold for Linebackers

By breaking down fantasy football finishers into the top 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50, we established a critical threshold for linebackers’ weight. The critical threshold is essentially a threshold at which a change in performance can be expected when it is crossed. Here is that breakdown, with the highest weights seen at different thresholds since 2003:

• Top 10 Max: 270lbs
• Top 20 Max: 289lbs
• Top 30 Max: 289lbs
• Top 40 Max: 289lbs
• Top 50 Max: 305lbs

Due to this, we determined that a weight of 289lbs will serve as a critical threshold for linebackers in our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model. This model will attempt to forecast potential successes and busts. Essentially, Linebackers must measure in at 289lbs or lower in order to not be considered a certain future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2027 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:

LB Weight Pearson Value

We applied standard statistical analysis to measure our data for statistical significance:

• Pearson Value: 0.098

This value indicates no significant correlation between linebacker weight and fantasy production. We are hoping for a value above 0.1 when studying world-class athletes. Therefore, this is a near miss for statistical significance per standard statistical methods. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges that matters in prospect scouting and to show accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.

Decadal Differences

To find whether this is an evolving or dying trend, we applied our optimal range to fantasy leaderboards across decades and to the top 10, places 11-40, and the bottom 10. The recent decade prevailed a greater rate of our optimal weight range within the top 10 versus the bottom 10, which indicates this optimal range is a growing trend, not a dying one.

Application to 2024 Rookie LB NFL Class

We next applied our weight optimal range to the 2024 Rookie Linebacker class. For this, we aligned their NFL Combine measurements with our optimal range of 217-252 pounds. The full class breakdown can be seen below:

2024 NFL Rookies in our optimal range (217lbs to 252lbs):

2024 NFL Rookies out of our optimal range:

Conclusion

Through a deep analysis, we’ve pinpointed a promising weight range for linebackers that correlates with higher success rates. Although, while weight shows some correlation with NFL success among linebackers, it’s not an absolute predictor, due to just barely missing when it came to standard statistical methods.

More Data Next Week!

Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. Premium Analytics subscribers get priority. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 37 of “Does It Matter?” will be an examination of Linebacker 40 Yard Dashes: Does it matter? If so, what’s the 40-time threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you.

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