Quarterbacks: When To Sell? A Comprehensive Analysis
05/03/2025
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Part 54 of our “Does It Matter?” series focused on identifying when a quarterback is likely to decline in their career, crucial
In the 56th installment of our “Does It Matter?” series, we dive into college PFF Passer ratings to see whether they can help predict NFL success or not. We aimed to determine if a quarterback’s peak college PFF Passer Rating truly correlates with NFL success, specifically in terms of fantasy football success. Here are all of our findings:
To tackle this question, we looked at the top 30 fantasy football finishers since 2017, since that is the beginning of PFF Passer Ratings. We defined the “bottom 10” as finishers ranked 21st to 30th each season. Also, we excluded rookie years to not allow the typical rookie struggles in the NFL to skew our data. All PFF passer Ratings seen in this article are the top PFF Passer Rating season, not the combined or just the senior season.
We constructed an averages chart to compare the average top 5, top 10, 11th-20th, and 21st-30th finishes from 2017 onward using their top college PFF Passer Rating scores. This showed that higher top PFF Passer rating seasons more frequently translated to superior NFL fantasy scores than bottom. In 5 out of 7 (71.4%) of the studied seasons, quarterbacks finishing in the top 5 had equal or superior top PFF Passer rating seasons compared to those in the 21st-30th bracket.
We further dissected top 10 finishers since 2017, segmenting the data into 1.0 passer rating increments. This unveiled the same clear pattern: higher top college PFF passer rating seasons aligned with more successful fantasy outcomes. This is seen by the weight and distribution differences between both of these charts, with the top 10 coming first:
To pinpoint a threshold where increased top level performances occur, we developed a differences chart. This chart compares each PFF Passer Rating season with the next 5.0 PFF Passer Rating, subtracting the bottom 10 from the top 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. From this chart, an 81 PFF Passer Rating and above emerged as a potential top-performing range, guiding us closer to a possible optimal range. We will next attempt to verify this as the top producing range.
With this initial range in sight, we made adjustments to see if it is the top producing range or not. By testing numbers near the identified range, we discovered that adjusting this threshold to 83 and above produces a 29.6% top 10 appearance rates over the bottom 10. Therefore, the 83+ range becomes the focus of this study and is the optimal range you should hope to see in prospects.
To find a bare minimum that should be expected from QB’s before they enter the NFL, we found the minimums ever seen in different thresholds. We broke this down into different thresholds – top 10, 20, and 30. The minimums for each group were as follows:
Due to this, 75 top college PFF passer rating season will be the critical threshold for our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will attempt to predict quarterback successes and potential busts. Essentially, Quarterbacks must have at least one season where they have a 75 PFF passer rating to not be considered a surefire future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2026 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:
By employing standard statistical methods we looked to find what the statistical correlation is between peak college PFF passer ratings and NFL performances. Those findings were as seen below:
These results showed a significant – though underwhelming compared to our recent QB findings – correlation between a QB’s peak college PFF Passer Rating season and their NFL fantasy production. Given our focus on world-class athletes, a Pearson value over 0.1 or under -0.1 is significant for indicating predictive power. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.
Armed with these findings, we turned our attention to the 2024 and projected 2025 QB draft classes. We primarily wanted to see how recent talents measure up against our identified optimal range. This helps in understanding which rising talents fit the mold of successful NFL players. Players who fall outside of the optimal range should only be valued less, not completely disregarded.
2024 and 2025 NFL Draft classes in our optimal range (83 and above top PFF Passer Rating season):
| Bo Nix | 93 |
| Jayden Daniels | 92 |
| Spencer Rattler | 92 |
| Shadeur Sanders | 91 |
| Kurtis Rourke | 91 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 91 |
| Drake Maye | 91 |
| Carson Beck | 91 |
| Cam Ward | 91 |
| Caleb Williams | 90 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 90 |
| Jordan Travis | 88 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 87 |
| Quinn Ewers | 86 |
| Devin Leary | 85 |
2024 and 2025 NFL Draft classes outside our optimal range (82 and below top PFF Passer Rating season):
| Joe Milton | 82 |
| Garrett Nussmeier | 82 |
| Michael Pratt | 81 |
| Drew Allar | 79 |
| Jalen Milroe | 78 |
Our findings revealed the value of a peak college PFF Passer Rating season of 83 and above as a helpful indicator of NFL success. This range will be helpful, but not the top metric used in our StarPredictor Score model we are developing. Any Quarterbacks who fall above the treshold of 83 and above should have an increased value above those who do not. Although, this is not saying those who fall under this threshold are certain busts.
What metric matters the most when scouting a rookie Running Back? What threshold should Running Backs achieve within that metric to be considered an elite prospect? How much should you value that stat above all other stats? Couldn't answer those questions? Rest easy, we have it handled for you. That's what this chart answers. Sort by importance and/or filter by position. Unlock by signing up with the links provided. $9.99/Year or $24.99 Lifetime access. Cancel anytime.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 57 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Quarterback Rookie YPG: Does It Matter? If so, what’s the YPG threshold necessary for success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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Part 54 of our “Does It Matter?” series focused on identifying when a quarterback is likely to decline in their career, crucial
In Dynasty Fantasy Football, Finding late-round value risers can be significant to ensuring long term success. Leveraging the Star-Predictor Score (SPS) Value
Understanding whether a Quarterback’s College Passer Rating can predict their NFL success is the question we looked to answer for part 55
