For part 52 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into whether a Quarterback’s NFL success can be predicted by their draft capital. Our main goal was to find whether the draft capital spent on a Quarterback can predict their NFL success, and subsequently where you should hope for your favorite athlete to be drafted at. Here are all of our findings:
To structure our study, we examined the top 30 fantasy football finishers since 2003. The “bottom 10”, which you will see throughout this study, refers to quarterbacks finishing 21st-30th each season. All numbers are rounded to the nearest 10th overall draft capital.
To begin, we created a chart to visualize averages across 4 different leaderboard ranges: top 5, 10, 11-20, and 21-30th place finishers since 2003. This revealed an obvious trend: quarterbacks with higher valued draft capital consistently achieved better fantasy scores. As you can see, 95.2% of the time (20 out of 21 seasons), the top 5 finishers were drafted equally or earlier compared to those finishing in the bottom 10.
To further visualize this pattern, we charted the top 10 finishers from 2003, breaking down the data into 10 overall pick increments. Here, too, higher valued draft capitals showed a strong correlation with higher fantasy performances. This is evident by comparing the weight of both charts:
Our next goal was to pinpoint an applicable threshold where the highest increase of performances in quarterbacks occur at the top of leaderboards. To achieve this, we created a differences chart to compare each overall pick, plus the next 30 overall picks by subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10 across that range. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. This chart revealed the following: quarterbacks drafted 50th overall and earlier consistently demonstrated superior performances. This assisted in defining a potential optimal range for top-level performances, which we will verify next.
When we adjusted the numbers within our spreadsheets and tested various other thresholds and ranges to verify this as the top producing range or to find another one, we determined that the 1st-50th overall range yields a 33.3% higher rate of top 5 appearances compared to bottom 5 finishes since 2003. This range is therefore the optimal range and will be the basis of this study going forward.
In applying standard statistical methods to evaluate this as a possible predictor of NFL success, we focused on the Pearson correlation value:
This value showcases a correlation between a quarterback’s draft capital and their fantasy production. Given our focus on world-class athletes, a Pearson value over 0.1 or under -0.1 is significant for indicating predictive power. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.
To detect trends over time, we compared our data in the last two decades to assess the significance of our identified draft capital threshold for those finishing in the top 10, 11-20th, and bottom 10 positions. Our decadal differences chart revealed that while the optimal range remains a declining trend, it still had significance in the most recent decade.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 5 | 6 through 24 | Bottom 5 | |
| All count | 50 | 200 | 50 |
| All 55 OVR and below | 40 | 121 | 20 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 80.0% | 60.5% | 40.0% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 5 | 6 through 24 | Bottom 5 | |
| All count | 50 | 200 | 50 |
| All 55 OVR and below | 40 | 145 | 26 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 80.0% | 72.5% | 52.0% |
To determine how upcoming talents align with our established range, we analyzed the 2024 Rookie QB NFL class. By mapping their draft positions against our findings, we found all who should be seen in good light and those who should be valued less.
2024 NFL Draft class in our optimal range (55th Overall and below):
| Caleb Williams | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 2 |
| Drake Maye | 3 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 8 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 10 |
| Bo Nix | 12 |
2024 NFL Draft class outside our optimal range (55th Overall and below):
| Spencer Rattler | 150 |
| Jordan Travis | 171 |
| Joe Milton | 193 |
| Devin Leary | 218 |
In summary, our dive into draft capital and quarterback success has revealed that higher valued draft capital translates into greater fantasy football success. We defined the 50th overall and earlier threshold as the optimal range, which is essentially 3/4 through the 2nd round.
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Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 53 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Quarterback Best College Yardage Season: Does it matter? If so, what’s the yardage threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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