Can Draft Capital Help Predict Tight End Success?
06/07/2025
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In our 63-part analytical series, “Does It Matter?”, we next wanted to look into the intriguing question of whether a Tight End’s
Deebo Samuel’s blend of rushing and receiving abilities has made him one of the most exciting NFL players to watch. But despite this, there are justified reasons to consider selling him in fantasy football leagues. The gist of this argument revolves around his age, historical production, and high market value.
Deebo’s age is becoming an increasingly relevant factor. The reality of the NFL is brutal; it’s a young man’s game. Especially for wide receivers whose production typically starts to decline as they hit their late 20s. Deebo is edging closer to this critical age, which makes it an opportune time to sell for fantasy managers looking to maximize value.
Samuel’s best season was in 2021 where he had 1,405 yards and 6 touchdowns. Although this was a great season, a closer examination of his career reveals a pattern of very average production. Aside from his breakout 2021 campaign, Samuel’s performance has been very underwhelming considering his high fantasy draft cost. His 2023 season sums up this narrative. Samuel ended with a stat line of 802 yards and 3 touchdowns, ranking him as the 15th best wide receiver in PPR leagues. This marked his second best season. This level of production doesn’t quite live up to the expectations many have for Samuel. Once again especially when comparing to his high price tag in fantasy trades and drafts.
Samuel’s market value remains high, largely due to his prominent role in the San Francisco 49ers’ dynamic offense, which is set to remain his home through the 2027 season. His situation is also a concern, playing alongside talents like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, rookie Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle. This many talents on one offense creates a concern that there may be too many mouths to feed.
While the 49ers’ offense is among the league’s best, this very fact could work against Samuel’s fantasy outlook. With so many mouths to feed, Samuel’s target share could see a decline. The potential departure of Aiyuk could ease some concerns, but the reality is that Samuel’s role may not be as fantasy-friendly moving forward as some might hope.
Given Deebo Samuel’s situation, the wise move for fantasy managers is to sell while his value is still at its peak. While he remains an electric talent in one of the NFL’s top offenses, the signs point toward a decrease in fantasy production as he ages and competes for targets. By trading him now, fantasy owners can capitalize on his current high value and avoid the risk of diminishing returns in the coming seasons.
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In our 63-part analytical series, “Does It Matter?”, we next wanted to look into the intriguing question of whether a Tight End’s
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