In Part 32 of the “Does It Matter?” series, we dove into the question of whether a Defensive Backs’ 40-yard dash time can be a predictor for their NFL success. Here are all our findings:
To conduct our analysis, we explored data from the top 50 fantasy football scorers from 2003 onwards, focusing on PPR (Points Per Reception) scoring. Our primary goal was to find whether there is correlation between 40-yard dash times and Fantasy Football success, defined by fantasy football rankings. Within this article, the “bottom 10” term refers to players finishing in 41st-50th place each season.
Why the top 50 players only: we wanted to maintain focus on impactful performances while avoiding fringe roster players who could simply skew results. This top 50 range is a “happy medium” which allows us to compare the best and worst, while allowing us to really compare the best to the worst. Essentially, comparing the top 10 to a number which includes the 11th place finisher does not satisfy our personal itch for finding a trend.
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The first step of this research involved creating an averages chart. This highlights the trends among the top 5, 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th place finishers since 2003. Upon reviewing this chart, no trends emerged. Surprisingly, in 12 out of 21 seasons (57.1%), the 40-yard dash times for Top 10 finishers were equal to, or even higher, than those for the 31st-50th finishers. This chart usually shows us how the regression testing will end up, therefore, these results led us to begin doubting 40-times as a predictor for DB success. The averages chart can be seen below:
To find deeper insights, we examined the top and bottom 10 fantasy finishers by sorting them according to their 40-times in increments of 0.01 seconds. This segmentation was an attempt to make it more obvious where the higher performances occur at in accordance with 40-times. Contrary to expectations, this analysis showed slower 40-yard dash times occurring more frequently in the top 10 finishers. This shows that faster DB’s were not consistently outperforming their slower peers.
Our primary goal was to find a sweet spot in Defensive Back 40 yard dash times. To achieve this, we created a differences chart. This chart accounts for each 40-time with the next 0.05-seconds, subtracting the bottom 10 from the top 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the desired consistent top level performances we are hoping for. From this, we found that the range between 4.52 to 4.67 seconds appears to be a top-performing threshold, which we will attempt to verify next.
We now want to backtest this range against historical data from DBs finishing in the bottom 10 since 2003. Out of 136 players, 53 had 40-yard dash times within 4.52 to 4.67 seconds, accounting for 38.2%. This percentage now serves as our baseline to determine whether this range represents an average DB’s 40-time, or a top-performing DB’s 40-time.
To validate this, we looked at the 147 top 10 finishers with a 40-time from 2003 to 2023. We found that 75 of these finishers fell within this same range, accounting for 51.0%. This was a 12.8% increase compared to the baseline, suggesting this 40-time range is possibly the top performing range. Although, we want to slightly alter this to attempt to verify this as the top-producing range, or find a better producing one, which we will do next.
When we Utilized our spreadsheet for quick adjustments, we discovered that adjusting the range to 4.53 to 4.68 seconds resulted in a 17.7% higher appearance rate among top 10 finishers than in the bottom 10. Therefore, this will be the subject of this study going forward.
We further wanted to determine critical 40-yard dash time values for different finishing thresholds. The critical value is simply the threshold at which an outcome change could occur. Here are those findings:
Due to this, 4.75 seconds will serve as a critical threshold for when we produce our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model. Essentially, Defensive Backs must run the 40 in under 4.75 seconds in order to not be considered a future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2025 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:
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Using standard statistical methods, we analyzed the correlation between a DB’s 40-time and their fantasy production. Here is what prevailed from that:
These results indicate no meaningful correlation between 40-times and fantasy performance. Our goal is to reach a Pearson value of >0.1 or < -0.1 when studying world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.
To identify this as an emerging or dying trend, we broke our optimal 40-time threshold down across decades for the top 10 finishers and those ranked 11th to 40th and bottom 10. This chart shows this 40-time range becoming even less significant in the most recent decade. That can be noticed when comparing the Bottom 10 to Top 10 differences in each decade.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 66 | 202 | 63 |
| All Between 4.53 and 4.68 seconds | 38 | 81 | 19 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 57.6% | 40.1% | 30.2% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 79 | 210 | 69 |
| All Between 4.53 and 4.68 seconds | 41 | 86 | 28 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 51.9% | 41.0% | 40.6% |
Finally, we evaluated how the 2024 Rookie DB NFL class fits within our optimal 40-time range. We broke it down into players within our optimal range and players outside of it. That breakdown can be seen below:
| Ryan Watts | 4.53 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 4.54 |
| Josh Proctor | 4.55 |
| Daijahn Anthony | 4.55 |
| Kitan Oladapo | 4.58 |
| Andre Sam | 4.59 |
| Jaylen Key | 4.60 |
| Demani Richardson | 4.60 |
| Evan Williams | 4.60 |
| Kalen King | 4.61 |
| Sione Vaki | 4.62 |
| Isaiah Johnson | 4.64 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 4.65 |
| James Williams | 4.65 |
| Nate Wiggins | 4.28 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 4.33 |
| Decamerion Richardson | 4.34 |
| Nehemiah Pritchett | 4.36 |
| Daequan Hardy | 4.38 |
| Jarrian Jones | 4.38 |
| Deantre Prince | 4.38 |
| Max Melton | 4.39 |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 4.41 |
| D.J. James | 4.42 |
| Millard Bradford | 4.42 |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | 4.44 |
| Elijah Jones | 4.44 |
| M.J. Devonshire | 4.45 |
| Cole Bishop | 4.45 |
| Jaylin Simpson | 4.45 |
| Marcellas Dial | 4.46 |
| Willie Drew | 4.46 |
| Tykee Smith | 4.46 |
| Dwight McGlothern | 4.47 |
| Mike Sainristil | 4.47 |
| Javon Bullard | 4.47 |
| Andru Phillips | 4.48 |
| Calen Bullock | 4.48 |
| Renardo Green | 4.49 |
| Terrion Arnold | 4.50 |
| Cam Hart | 4.50 |
| Khyree Jackson | 4.50 |
| Myles Harden | 4.50 |
| Jaylon Carlies | 4.50 |
| Josh Newton | 4.51 |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | 4.51 |
| Dominique Hampton | 4.51 |
| Tarheeb Still | 4.52 |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. |
| Caelen Carson |
| Ryan Cooper Jr |
| Cooper DeJean |
| Johnny Dixon |
| Kamal Hadden |
| Carlton Johnson |
| Kamari Lassiter |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry |
| Christian Roland-Wallace |
| T.J. Tampa |
| Ro Torrence |
| Josh Wallace |
| Tyler Nubin |
| Beau Brade |
| Jaden Hicks |
| Patrick McMorris |
| Malik Mustapha |
| Tyler Owens |
The hypothesis that 40-yard dash times could predict Defensive Backs’ success in the NFL did not find support in our study. Averages and Pearson value analyses suggested that having a faster 40-time is not a guaranteed ticket to a top tier NFL performance.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 33 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Defensive Back RAS (Relative Athletic Score): Does it matter? If so, what’s the RAS threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
Here is all our analytics content! Type in your desired position in the "Position of Topic" to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.49/month! 1 week free trial. Cancel anytime.
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