In Part 31 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we look to find if a Defensive Back’s weight can predict their NFL success. By crunching numbers and analyzing data from 2003 to 2023, we found an optimal range that you should hope for in your favorite athletes.
For our methodology, we examined the top 50 fantasy football finishers for each season since 2003. We looked at Cornerbacks, Free Safeties, and Strong Safeties for this research. Also, the term “bottom 10”, which you will see throughout this study, is defined as those who finished 41st to 50th each season.
Why top 50? The reason we chose the top 50 is to find a happy medium. We don’t want to go further than the top 50 and start getting close to the fringe roster players whom obviously are not going to score top 10. These players could therefore just weigh the data. On the other hand, We want to compare the worst to the best still. Comparing the top 10 to the 11th place finisher, or an average number that takes into account the 11th place finisher, doesn’t satisfy our personal itch to try to find trends.
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To begin finding obvious trends, we created an averages chart showcasing the weight of the top 5, top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th fantasy finishes since 2003. From this, we noticed that in 81.0% of the seasons (17 out of 21), the top 10 finishers either matched, or exceeded, the weights of those in the 31st-50th positions. This suggests a potential close correlation between higher weights and better fantasy scores, as this chart has predicted in the past.
Next, we wanted to segment out the bottom and top 10 pound-by-pound to see where each chart is weighted when compared to each other. This segmentation revealed a weight towards higher weights within the more elite (top 10) group. This once again suggests a possible pattern where increased weight correlates to higher rankings within the top 10 finishers.
The overall goal of this research was to pinpoint the weight range where the most significant increase in performance occurs. To achieve this, a differences chart was created. This compares each weight incrementally with the next 5 pounds. Essentially, this is subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10 results, within each 5-pound group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the desired consistent top level performances we are hoping for. From this, it became evident that a weight of 197 pounds and above is where the top performance threshold appears to be. This chart can be seen below:
Next, we looked into this range to compare it against all DBs who finished in the bottom 10 since 2003. Out of 197 DBs with NFL Combine weight data, 117 were at, or above, the 197-pound threshold, accounting for 59.4%. This percentage set the baseline for determining this as an average DB weight, or an average top-performing DB weight.
To verify if the 197-pound threshold is the top performing threshold, we next compared this range with the top 10 finishers from 2003 to 2023. Amongst 192 top 10 finishers in this time frame, 144 were within this weight range, accounting for 75.0%. This shows a 15.6% increase from the bottom 10 group. Further, after fine-tuning this range to attempt to find a higher producing range and threshold, we could not find one. Therefore, this is our optimal DB Weight range and will be the subject of this research going forward.
For our SPS system, we wanted to establish a critical value. The critical value is simply the threshold at which an outcome change could occur. Here is the break down of the minimum weights seen across different performance tiers:
Due to this, 173lbs is our critical threshold for DB’s when we produce our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model which will attempt to predict successes/busts. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2025 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:
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We applied standard statistical analysis to measure how strong the correlation is using standard methods:
This value indicates no significant correlation between Defensive Backs weight and fantasy production. We are hoping for a value above 0.1 or less than -0.1 when studying world-class athletes as we are. Therefore, this is a near miss for weight correlating to fantasy football success with Defensive Backs. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.
The next part of our analysis involved comparing our optimal weight range across different decades for the top 10, 11th to 40th, and bottom 10 finishers. This analysis revealed no definitive trend, suggesting that weight remained as significant in the most recent decade as it did in the earlier decade.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 89 | 273 | 90 |
| All 197lbs and above | 69 | 180 | 55 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 77.5% | 65.9% | 61.1% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 97 | 295 | 99 |
| All 197lbs and above | 73 | 203 | 58 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 75.3% | 68.8% | 58.6% |
We next assessed how the 2024 NFL Draft DB class aligns with the optimal weight range we identified. All the players are broken down into the categories seen below:
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 197lbs |
| Javon Bullard | 198lbs |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 199lbs |
| Evan Williams | 200lbs |
| Christian Roland-Wallace | 201lbs |
| Cooper DeJean | 202lbs |
| Cam Hart | 202lbs |
| Tykee Smith | 202lbs |
| Kamren Kinchens | 203lbs |
| Beau Brade | 203lbs |
| Isaiah Johnson | 205lbs |
| Tyler Nubin | 205lbs |
| Cole Bishop | 206lbs |
| Patrick McMorris | 207lbs |
| Ro Torrence | 208lbs |
| Ryan Watts | 208lbs |
| Jaylen Key | 208lbs |
| Josh Proctor | 209lbs |
| Malik Mustapha | 209lbs |
| Demani Richardson | 210lbs |
| Sione Vaki | 210lbs |
| Dominique Hampton | 215lbs |
| Jaden Hicks | 215lbs |
| Kitan Oladapo | 216lbs |
| Tyler Owens | 216lbs |
| Jaylon Carlies | 227lbs |
| James Williams | 231lbs |
| Carlton Johnson | 173lbs |
| Nate Wiggins | 173lbs |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | 179lbs |
| Jaylin Simpson | 179lbs |
| Daequan Hardy | 179lbs |
| D.J. James | 181lbs |
| Mike Sainristil | 182lbs |
| Deantre Prince | 183lbs |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | 183lbs |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 184lbs |
| Elijah Jones | 185lbs |
| Dwight McGlothern | 185lbs |
| Josh Wallace | 185lbs |
| Ryan Cooper Jr | 186lbs |
| M.J. Devonshire | 186lbs |
| Renardo Green | 186lbs |
| Kamari Lassiter | 186lbs |
| Max Melton | 187lbs |
| Johnny Dixon | 188lbs |
| Decamerion Richardson | 188lbs |
| Calen Bullock | 188lbs |
| Terrion Arnold | 189lbs |
| Tarheeb Still | 189lbs |
| Marcellas Dial | 190lbs |
| Jarrian Jones | 190lbs |
| Josh Newton | 190lbs |
| Andru Phillips | 190lbs |
| Nehemiah Pritchett | 190lbs |
| Andre Sam | 191lbs |
| Millard Bradford | 191lbs |
| Willie Drew | 191lbs |
| Kalen King | 191lbs |
| Kamal Hadden | 192lbs |
| Caelen Carson | 193lbs |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | 194lbs |
| Khyree Jackson | 194lbs |
| T.J. Tampa | 194lbs |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 195lbs |
| Myles Harden | 195lbs |
| Daijahn Anthony | 195lbs |
Our breakdown revealed that 197 pounds and above is the optimal range for Defensive Backs. Although there was a near miss with regression testing, if you are still a believer in weights corresponding to DB success, 197 pounds and above is the range you should be hoping for in your favorite athletes.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 32 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Defensive Back 40 Yard Dashes: Do they matter? If so, what’s the 40 Yard threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
Here is all our analytics content! Type in your desired position in the "Position of Topic" to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.49/month! 1 week free trial. Cancel anytime.
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