For part 10 of our “Saturday Script” series, we looked into whether height matters for NFL running backs. After finding a correlation in part 9 for RB BMI, In this article we unearth a specific height range that is directly linked to increased top level consistent production on the field. The excitement also increased when we found only 2 rookie running backs who fell within our height range who could be possible sleeper picks.
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Methodology:
We analyzed the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003. We focused exclusively on NFL draft combine numbers to maintain consistency in our data. The PPR fantasy scoring system is what we used due to its popularity. Additionally, throughout this study we refer to the “Bottom 10”. This is defined as the 41st-50th place finishers in fantasy scoring each year.
Finding the Golden Height
We first wanted to look at our averages chart that compares heights across different Running Back finisher categories. The insights were appealing – the top 5 finishers consistently had taller heights compared to those at the bottom of the rankings for 71.4% of seasons since 2003. That averages chart where that is seen can be seen below:
Segmented Charts
Zooming in further, we wanted to segment out the top 10 finishes amongst NFL Running Backs to view their heights in 1/8″ increments. When we did this, we discovered significant increases in production at a couple specific heights when comparing to the bottom 10. Notably, 6’0″ and 6’1″ showed the most significant increase in performance going from the bottom 10 to the top 10, hinting at a potential hard range. These charts can be seen below:
Introducing the Differences Chart
Throughout this series, the differences chart has emerged as a crucial tool in our analysis. This helps pinpoint sweet spot ranges where performances not only peak, but shows us top level production consistency. Essentially, we can use this to see what heights prevailed more than just the “one hit wonders” of the NFL. In this chart, you will see both unique (orange) and non-unique players (blue) that showed up in our data. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences and a positive number for non-unique differences. This desired outcome would show that when NFL Running Backs show up in the top 10, they are most likely to appear in the top 10 again.
With this chart, we identified a critical height range – from 6’0.5″ to 6’1.875″. This is where the highest increases occur from the top 10 compared to the bottom 10. We also identified a soft range from this ranging from 5’10.5″ to 6’0.5″. The soft range is where a smaller increase occurs, just not the more significant sweet spot. The hard range will be the focus of this study going forward, as it shows the most high-level and consistent production increase.
Correlation and Confirmation
Our regression testing did not come back as a strong correlation when put against standard statistical methods. With a P-value of 0.064227, a slight trend is verified. Typically speaking, a 0.05 and below is what indicates a strong correlation when looking at P-values. When looking at the regression chart, we can see that as height increases, fantasy production typically increases as well. This helps solidify our findings which supports higher value towards the taller backs, although this should be taken with a grain of salt since it failed the typical regression testing analysis.
An Average RB Height, or The Most Frequent Top Performing RB Height?
To dive deeper into our findings, we wanted to compare our height range against all top and bottom 10 finishers. This could show us whether we found an average RB’s height, or an average top performing RB’s height. For the bottom 10, out of 210 running backs, 31 fell within this height range which accounts for 14.8%. This sets our baseline for comparing back to the top 10. If more than 14.8% appeared in the top 10, then we found the most frequent top performing RB’s height and not just an average RB’s height. When looking at the top 10 finishers, 54 out of 210 were within the same range. This represents 25.7%, a significant 10.9% increase when compared to the bottom 10 finishers!
Decade-by-Decade Trends
Since we found this 10.9% trend, we wanted to look into time based trends. Therefore we split all of our data into two decades and ran the same exact calculations as we did for all of the data where we found that 10.9% increase.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 100 | 300 | 100 |
| Between 5’10.5” to 6’0.5” | 26 | 121 | 29 |
| % (soft zone/all) | 26.0% | 40.3% | 29.0% |
| Between 6’0.5” to 6’1.875” | 28 | 51 | 21 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 28.0% | 17.0% | 21.0% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 100 | 300 | 100 |
| Between 5’10.5” to 6’0.5” | 36 | 102 | 29 |
| % (soft zone/all) | 36.0% | 34.0% | 29.0% |
| Between 6’0.5” to 6’1.875” | 25 | 44 | 7 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 25.0% | 14.7% | 7.0% |
A noticeable trend emerges which indicates a shift towards our identified height range in the most recent decade. In the 2004-2013 decade, there is a 7% increase from the bottom 10 to the top 10. As you can see in the most recent decade there is a glaring 18% increase which is where we arrived to that conclusion of this height range being a more recent trend.
Unveiling the 2024 Rookie RB Landscape
After all of our findings we wanted to turn our attention turned towards the 2024 rookie running back class. We set out to see how these newcomers stacked up against the height ranges we identified. Here’s a list of our findings:
Out of both ranges
- MarShawn Lloyd (5’9”)
- Blake Corum (5’8”)
- Ray Davis (5’8”)
- Dylan Laube (5’10”)
- George Holani (5’10”)
- Keilan Robinson (5’8”)
- Jase McClellan (5’10”)
- Emani Bailey (5’7”)
- Bucky Irving (5’9”)
- Cody Schrader (5’8.5”)
- Kimani Vidal (5’8”)
- Jaden Shirden (5’8”)
- Daijun Edwards (5’10”)
- Jawhar Jordan (5’9.5”)
- Miyan Williams (5’8.5”)
- Frank Gore Jr. (5’8”)
In soft range (5’10.5” to 6’0.5”)
- Jonathan Brooks (6’0”)
- Trey Benson (6’0”)
- Jaylen Wright (5’10.5”)
- Tyrone Tracy (5’11”)
- Will Shipley (5’11”)
- Isaac Guerrendo (6’0”)
- Audric Estime (5’11”)
- Isaiah Davis (6’0”)
- Rasheed Ali (5’11”)
- Dillon Johnson (6’0”)
- Sione Vaki (5’11”)
- Michael Wiley (5’10.5”)
In Hard Range (6’0.5” to 6’1.875”)
- Braelon Allen (6’1”)
- Kendall Milton (6’1.5”)
Conclusion
In conclusion, our number crunching has revealed a connection between height and RB success. The hard range we’ve uncovered appears 10.9% more frequently in the top 10 versus the bottom 10.
If you want to use this data to your advantage, here’s what it means as far as its applicability: Running backs within the hard height range who are projected to be in the top 50 have a 10.9% higher chance of ending the season in the top 10 rather than at the bottom of the leaderboard.
More Data Next Week!
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics, and this latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday We will dive deep into the most intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis similar to this. We thrive on curiosity and welcome your input — so please, leave comments or reach out to us with topics you’re eager to see dissected next. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 11 of The Saturday Script is our next examination of NFL Running Backs: Does 40 time matter? If so, what’s the 40 time threshold necessary for success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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