For part 15 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we aimed to determine whether the 10-yard split times from NFL draft combine events could be used to predict the success of wide receivers in fantasy football. We hoped that burst metrics would be more significant for wide receiver success, especially since last week in part 14 of this series we found no correlation between 40-yard dash times and success. Here is how that hope unfolded:
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We compiled data from the top 50 fantasy football finishers in PPR (Points Per Reception) leagues since 2003. To maintain consistency, only NFL draft combine numbers were used. Throughout this study, you will hear the “bottom 10” which is defined as fantasy football finishers 41-50th place.
For our analysis, we created an average 10-yard split time chart for different groups and charted them to visualize any potential trends. The four groups are as follows:
Our chart of the average 10-yard split times for each group since 2003 prevailed no significant trend. The times are scattered without any obvious correlation between split times and higher fantasy points.
We looked at the top 10 finishers’ times deeper by segmenting them into 0.01-second increments. Our goal was to identify the 10-yard split times that consistently correlated with higher performance by comparing to the bottom 10 chart. The biggest increase at the top level appears to happen at 1.53, indicating possibly where the top range may be.
We examined our differences chart to find a threshold, or range, where increased consistent top level producers occur. This is done by comparing the segmented top 10 and bottom 10 charts, then including the next 0.03 seconds at each indicated interval. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the desired consistent top level performances we are hoping for. That range, from 1.53 to 1.63, appears to be the range where WRs finishing at the top consistently fell within as shown by the chart.
By examining 119 WRs in the bottom 10 since 2003, we found that 94 fell within this range, which equates to 79.0%. This sets the baseline to compare with the top 10 performers. If a higher rate than 79.0% occurs in the top 10, then we found an average top performing WR’s 10 yard split time and not just an overall average WR’s 10 yard split time. For the top 10 from 2003-2023, 105 out of 125 top 10 finishers had 10-yard splits between 1.53 to 1.63, accounting for 84.0%. This is a 5.0% increase over the baseline, suggesting that this range is associated with higher-performing WRs.
To provide better findings for you, we upgraded our spreadsheet for quick range adjustments. This is to ensure it identifies the actual highest producing range. Upon further testing, we found that splits between 1.53 and 1.62 seconds occurred most frequently in the top 10 results (15.1%) compared to the bottom 10. Therefore, this range will be the focus of our study going forward.
Jarvis Landry holds the record for the highest 10-yard split in our data with a time of 1.73 seconds. However, he ran the 40-yard dash while injured. If we exclude his time, the next highest 10-yard split is 1.70 seconds. We will use this 1.70-second time as the critical value in our StarPredictor Score (SPS) system.
We conducted regression testing to try to find standard statistical correlations between 10-yard splits and fantasy points. The results were underwhelming as you can see below:
We assumed we were going to see a strong correlation here to begin our WR burst metrics research since the 40 yard dash prevailed the same results. Perhaps multiple regression testing (testing multiple variables at once for correlation) will need to be used here to find any correlation for WR’s amongst NFL combine testing metrics. Of course, 10-yard splits are apart of the 40 yard dash. Despite this there still was hope for more correlation. For reference to data which prevailed correlation, part 13 of our “Does It Matter?” series found that BMI predicts 1.4% of the changes in WR fantasy points.
We compared our 10-yard split range over the last two decades for believers, despite no regression testing support. Therefore, we analyzed the 10-yard split range for top 10, 11-40th place finishers, and bottom 10 across the last 2 decades. By doing this, we observed a slight decline in the identified threshold’s strength in the most recent decade.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 47 | 186 | 46 |
| Between 1.53 & 1.62 | 39 | 146 | 29 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 83.0% | 78.5% | 63.0% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 73 | 217 | 69 |
| Between 1.53 & 1.62 | 62 | 168 | 51 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 84.9% | 77.4% | 73.9% |
For those who still wish to trust this metric as a predictor, we looked for rookie WR’s who fit our 10-yard split range. Here is every rookie WR who ran between 1.53 to 1.62:
Our in-depth analysis shows that while 10-yard split times among top WRs might offer some insights, Any patterns found were not statistically significant enough to rely upon for predictive purposes as shown by a lack of regression testing support. If anyone wished to to use 10 yard split times to evaluate players regardless of having no statistical backing from regression testing, 1.53 to 1.62 appears to be the range you should be looking for in prospects. This is made evident by this range appearing 15.1% more often in the top 10 than the bottom 10.
In future parts of the “Does It Matter?” series, we will continue to explore more burst metrics to understand if any matter. Especially since the 40 yard dash prevailed no correlation as well, we are expecting burst metrics to reveal importance.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 16 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of WR Vertical Jumps: Do they matter? If so, what’s the Vertical Jump threshold necessary for success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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