NFL Wide Receivers: Does BMI Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis

For our ongoing 13 part “Does It Matter?” series, this week we dove into the numbers to see if Body Mass Index (BMI) could be used to predict the success of NFL wide receivers. After analyzing historical data, we found a BMI threshold correlating which has an increased production. Further, we found 3 2024 rookie WR’s who have much higher bust probability due to falling under the critical BMI threshold. 1 of those 3 is going in the first round of rookie dynasty drafts. Here’s a comprehensive analysis of our process and findings.

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Methodology

To ensure consistency, our study focused on the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003, exclusively using NFL Draft Combine numbers. We used PPR fantasy scores for our data and rounded each BMI to the nearest 0.1 for simplicity. Throughout this article you will see “bottom 10” which is defined as fantasy football finishers 41-50.

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Beginning: The Averages

We compiled averages for the top 1, 5, 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th finishers since 2003. This data revealed that the top 5 finishers boasted higher BMIs compared to the 31-50th finishers in 15 out of 21 seasons, accounting for 71.4%. The consistency in these averages suggested that BMI could play a role in WR success.

More In Depth Historical WR Look

We segmented the top 10 and bottom 10 finishers into 0.1 BMI increments and compared both charts. This aimed to visualize where performance significantly increases. As you can see, both charts look unimodal, although the top 10 looks more weighted around higher BMI’s.

Differences Chart and the WR BMI Threshold

We created a differences chart comparing each BMI plus the next 1.0 by subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10. The purpose of this chart is to find a threshold, or range. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate consistent top level performance. Overwhelmingly positive numbers after a BMI of 26.0 established this as our preferred threshold. Therefore, a BMI of 26.0 became the focus of our study going forward.

An Average WR BMI, Or An Average Top Performing WR BMI?

To establish a baseline, we analyzed WRs who finished in the bottom 10 (41st to 50th place) by fantasy points from 2003 to 2023. Out of 210 WRs in this range, 143 had a BMI at or above 26.0. This accounts for 68.1% and established our baseline for what could be considered an “average” WR’s BMI threshold. If more than 68.1% occurs in the top 10, then we found a BMI that occurs more frequently. For the top 10, these 210 WRs had 177 with a BMI above 26.0. This equates to 84.3%. and marked a significant 16.2% increase from the bottom 10 finishers! This suggests that a higher BMI is a common trait among top-performing WRs.

Verifying the Optimal WR BMI Range: Fine-Tuning

To make sure we found the optimal range, we upgraded our spreadsheet to quickly adjust and test various BMI ranges. This allowed us to efficiently identify the threshold which produces the highest percentage of top 10 finishes. Through this, we realized that altering the range to 26.3 BMI and above resulted in a 21.0% increased appearance rate in the top 10 when compared to the bottom 10 since 2003. Therefore, this range will be the subject of this research going forward and will be our optimal range for Wide Receiver BMI.

Establishing the Critical BMI Threshold for Wide Receivers

We next looked to identify our critical value for BMI amongst Wide Receivers. The critical value is simply the threshold at which an outcome change could occur. Here is the breakdown of different thresholds and the minimum BMI seen in each threshold since 2003:

• Top 10 Max: 23.0
• Top 20 Max: 23.0
• Top 30 Max: 23.0
• Top 40 Max: 23.0
• Top 50 Max: 23.0

Due to these findings, 23.0 is our critical value when it comes to BMI for Wide Receivers. This critical value will be a crucial part for producing our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will focus on predicting successes and busts. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2025 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:

Decadal Differences

We also compared BMI thresholds across different finishers categories (top 10, 11-40th place, and bottom 10) over the last two decades. The following insights can be seen:

• 2003-2013: Our BMI threshold was less influential, showing less improvement from the bottom 10 to the top 10.
• 2014-2023: A significant shift occurred where our BMI threshold became more substantial among top 10 finishers.

Regression Testing

To solidify our findings, we ran regression tests comparing BMI to fantasy points. The p-value was an astounding 0.000153 (anything below a 0.5 P-Value indicates a correlation). The R² value was also 0.0135, meaning that BMI can explain 1.4% of the variation in fantasy production, while 98.6% can be attributed to other factors. Our regression chart showed that as BMI increases, so do fantasy points.

The 2024 Rookie WR Class

Applying our threshold to the current batch of rookie WRs, we identified three players to avoid due to BMIs lower than the lowest found in the top 50 since 2003. One of which is a player being hyped due to his landing spot and 40 time: Xavier Worthy. Here are all of the Rookie WR findings:

26.3 and Above (Increased Value):

Lower than 26.3 (Reduced Value):

Lower than 23.0 (Critical Threshold Where Nobody Has Finished Top 50 Since 2003):

Conclusion

Our thorough examination revealed BMI as a predictor of WR success in the NFL. A BMI threshold of 26.3 corresponds to a 21.0% increase in production from the bottom 10 to the top 10 fantasy finishers between 2003 and 2023. This was accompanied by a great P-Value and R².

More Data Next Week!

Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics, and this latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday We will dive deep into the most intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis similar to this. We thrive on curiosity and welcome your input — so please, leave comments or reach out to us with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 14 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of WR 40 Yard Dashes: do they matter? If so, what’s the 40 time threshold necessary for success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!

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