Linebacker 40 Yard Dash: Does It Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis
12/21/2024
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For part 37 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we attempted to find whether a linebacker’s 40-yard dash time can predict their
In our latest installment of the “Does It Matter?” series, we dove deep in the number crunching to reveal the impact of an NFL Wide Receivers’ height on their fantasy football performance. Our research in Part 4 has unveiled a range where the average top-performing receiver falls into. Essentially, this range is where more elite performances occur. Further, we found a critical range where prospects must measure above or else be considered a bust.
Our search for answers began with compiling the top 50 Fantasy Football PPR wide receivers for every year since 2003. To maintain consistency and try to eliminate variables, we sourced our data exclusively from NFL draft combine measurements. This approach allowed us to draw comparisons on a level playing field, examining how physical attributes measured at the beginning of careers influences future success.
Everybody Knows Stats Are Cool. But Which Stats Are The Coolest and Mean The Most? Additionally, what are the target benchmarks athletes should aim to achieve in each statistic? That's what this chart answers. Type in your desired position in the "Position" field to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Then, filter the success boost or Pearson value from highest to lowest to see which stats mean the most. Pearson values of 0.1 and higher OR -0.1 or lower indicates correlation. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.49/month!
The first step in our analysis was to calculate the average heights for the top 1, 5, 10, 11-30th and 31-50th place finishers for every season.
At first glance, the data hinted at a subtle trend: the top 5 finishers appeared on average to be slightly taller than the 11-30th and 31-50th finishers. Although, this trend was not clear enough to declare this conclusion.
Unsatisfied with the averages, we transitioned to a more segmented evaluation. Therefore, we plotted the heights of every top 10 NFL wide receiver since 2003 on a chart in 1/8 inch increments. Mirroring this, we also charted the bottom 10 NFL wide receivers to create a visual comparison. Both can be seen below:
As performance increased, an increase in height at both the 6’0” and 6’2.75” marks became apparent. To solidify our findings, we constructed a differences chart. This compares each height segment (and the subsequent quarter inch) among the top finishers while subtracting the corresponding data from the bottom 10. Essentially, the Top 10 finishers chart minus the Bottom 10 Finishers chart (seen above) for each .25 inch beginning at the indicated height. This process revealed a significant range where height appears to be a predictive factor in a wide receiver’s performance. Between 5’11” and 6’2.75″ you’ll see the largest increase indicating higher performances within this threshold. Then you add the .25″ that this chart includes at the indicated height and you get a range from 5’11” to 6’3″ being the apparent best range.
Our finding showcases what we term as the “optimal range” for receiver heights, spanning from 5’11” to 6’3”. This interval was identified as a common height range among top-performing receivers specifically. To verify or debunk this, we looked at all bottom 10 finishers and wanted to see what percentage of them fall with the identified range. This will set the baseline to compare to the top 10 finishers next. So here it is: Out of 210 bottom 10 finishers, 110 fell within this optimal range. This accounts for 52.4%.
We now compared this baseline to the heights of all top 10 finishers from 2003 to 2023. Out of 210 top 10 finishers, 138 fell within our height range, accounting for 65.7%, a 13.3% increase! Although this is great, we’re not done there, as we want to adjust this range to verify this as the top producing height range, which you will see next.
By fine-tuning this height range, we found that expanding the upper end of this range produces the same exact results. Therefore, the optimal height range for WR’s will be 5’11” to 6’3-1/8″. This range also occurs in the top 10 13.3% more frequently than the bottom 10 and will be the subject of this research going forward.
We wanted to find a height which has never occurred at different leaderboard thresholds. Therefore, we looked at top 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 PPR fantasy football leaderboards to see what the smallest heights were. Those are as follows:
Due to these findings, 5’8-1/8″ will be our critical value. This is for our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, where we will be attempting to predict NFL successes or busts. Essentially, athletes must measure in at, or over, 5’8-1/8″ in order to not be considered a bust. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2025 NFL season.
In pursuing further insights, we compared the prevalence of our optimal range across different decades, specifically looking at top 10, 11-40th, and bottom 10 finishers. The findings were as follows:
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 100 | 300 | 100 |
| Between 5’11” and 6’3-1/8” | 64 | 191 | 58 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 64.0% | 63.7% | 58.0% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 100 | 300 | 100 |
| Between 5’11” and 6’3-1/8” | 68 | 172 | 45 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 68.0% | 57.3% | 45.0% |
This decade analysis suggests a significant shift towards receivers being higher performing within this hard range. This is seen by the 23.0% increase in the most recent decade, with only a 6.0% in the previous decade when going from bottom 10 to top 10 performers.
Next, we wanted to put all data points we accumulated up to the test of standard statistical methods. Namely, linear regression testing. What we are hoping for here is a P-Value of 0.05 or less, which would indicate strong correlation of height and fantasy points. Next, we are hoping for a minimum of 0.01 Rsquared, which would mean 1% of variances in fantasy points can be explained by height. Or in other words, 99.0% of variances in fantasy points could be described by other metrics. When studying world-class athletes, 1.0% is the minimum we are hoping for. Here are the regression results:
To interpret this; there is a strong correlation between height and fantasy points. Although, the Rsquared is under our desired amount. This Rsquared shows that 0.5% of the variances in fantasy points are described by height. Further, the regression chart shows that while height increases, fantasy points are also expected to increase.
In our investigation of how the rookie wide receiver class in the NFL matched up with this specific height criteria, we classified them into three distinct groups based on their heights: those within the optimal range, and those falling outside this range. Also, we looked for anyone who measured below our critical threshold. The findings are as follows:
The exploration into NFL Receiver heights has revealed an optimal range which stands out as the more significant performance booster. This range is from 5’11” to 6’3-1/8″. By no means do we think if a player is outside the hard or soft range that they will not be a good NFL player, but using analytics to help aide your opinions on players is a smart tactic.
Stay tuned for our weekly data-driven explorations which will be released every Saturday. We will dive deep into the world’s most intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis similar to this. We thrive on curiosity and welcome your input—so please, leave comments or reach out to us with topics you’re eager to see dissected next. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 5 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Wide Receiver Weights: Does that impact performance? If so, what’s the ideal weight for a WR? Your insights and questions fuel our research, so join us in this analytical journey. Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a short question and we will go to work for you!
Everybody Knows Stats Are Cool. But Which Stats Are The Coolest and Mean The Most? Additionally, what are the target benchmarks athletes should aim to achieve in each statistic? That's what this chart answers. Type in your desired position in the "Position" field to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Then, filter the success boost or Pearson value from highest to lowest to see which stats mean the most. Pearson values of 0.1 and higher OR -0.1 or lower indicates correlation. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.49/month!
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For part 37 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we attempted to find whether a linebacker’s 40-yard dash time can predict their
In Part 35 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked to find whether a linebacker’s weight could predict their success in
In the pursuit of finding whether a linebacker’s height plays a critical role in their NFL success, we found a height range
