Linebacker 40 Yard Dash: Does It Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis
12/21/2024
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For part 37 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we attempted to find whether a linebacker’s 40-yard dash time can predict their
Quentin Johnston of the Los Angeles Chargers was drafted 21st overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. With this high draft price came high expectations for him in LA. Unfortunately, his rookie season stats were far from impressive. Johnston recorded only 431 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first year, numbers that often signal a potential bust rather than a future star. Historically, first-year stats for wide receivers can be strong indicators of their future success or failure, and Johnston’s performance has many justifiably questioning his long-term value.
Adding to Quentin Johnston’s struggles is his concerning drop rate of 11.8%, which is considered extremely poor for an NFL receiver. Drops can be a major concern as a trust issue with the quarterback begins to creep in. While there are players like DK Metcalf who have overcome poor drop rates, it’s not a common trajectory for most receivers. DK had a college drop rate percentage of 9.5%, while QJ had 10.2%. QJ’s rookie season was notorious for drops, therefore he will need to make substantial improvements in this area to break past his current limitations.
This season Johnston is listed as the Chargers’ WR2, which gives him an opportunity to make an impact. However, his position is far from secure. The Chargers’ top WR draft pick this year, Ladd McConkey, is listed right behind him. McConkey’s presence means Johnston could easily slip down to WR3 if his performance doesn’t dramatically improve. With this competition, Johnston’s fantasy value remains incredibly volatile.
Given his poor rookie season stats, high drop rate, and strong internal competition, Johnston’s outlook is filled with too many red flags. While it’s possible he could turn things around, the odds are stacked heavily against him. For these reasons, the buy, hold, sell rating leans strongly towards selling Johnston before the season begins. The risks are simply too high to justify holding onto him in hopes of improvement.
In conclusion, trading Quentin Johnston is the wisest move for fantasy football managers at this point. The combination of a disappointing rookie season, drops, and competition suggests that waiting for a turnaround could be a mistake. Sell high while there’s still some perceived value.
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For part 37 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we attempted to find whether a linebacker’s 40-yard dash time can predict their
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