Linebacker RAS: Does It Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis
12/28/2024
No Comments
In Part 38 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked to solve the question of whether a Linebacker’s Relative Athletic Score
In part 39 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we dove into the potential correlation between a wide receiver’s best college yardage season and their success in the NFL. Using statistical analysis, we hoped to determine if there’s a pattern that could lead us to value specific players over others for fantasy football purposes. Here are all our findings:
To explore this potential trend, we examined the top 50 fantasy football finishers in the PPR format from 2003 onward. Our primary focus was the wide receivers’ best yardage seasons from their college careers using All-Purpose Yardages, which we theorized might show top-end potential, and could serve as a predictive measure of future NFL success. Throughout this study, you will see the term “bottom 10,” which is defined as those finishing 41st-50th each season since 2003.
Why the top 50? We chose the top 50 to maintain a “happy medium”. Going further than that will have players who are fringe roster players and therefore could just skew our data. On the other hand, we wanted to compare the best to the worst without including the 11th place finisher to compare to the top 10, or a finisher anywhere close to the top 10.
Everybody knows stats are cool, but which stats are the coolest and mean the most? Additionally, what are the target benchmarks athletes should aim to achieve in each statistic? That's what this chart answers. Type in your desired position in the "Position" field to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Then, filter the success boost or Pearson value from highest to lowest to see which stats mean the most. Pearson values of 0.1 and higher OR -0.1 or lower indicates correlation. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.49/month!
Our averages chart revealed an intriguing pattern: In 16 out of 21 seasons (76.2%), players who finished in the top 5 had better top AP yardage seasons during their college career compared to those who finished 31st-50th. This trend hints at a likely correlation between higher college AP yardage seasons and elite NFL performances.
Further, we plotted the top and bottom 10 finishers’ yards into 50-yard increments. This showed a heavier weight for higher best college AP yardage seasons amongst the top 10 more than the bottom 10, as you can see below:
To find an optimal and applicable threshold, we constructed a differences chart. This chart compared each best AP College yardage season, along with the next 250-yard increments, subtracting bottom 10 results from top 10 results. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the desired consistent top level performances we are hoping for. Our initial findings suggested that 1,300 AP Yards and above signaled a top-performing threshold. However, we wanted to verify or debunk this threshold, which we will do next.
Using our spreadsheet, we made range adjustments to attempt to find the actual top producing threshold. By crunching numbers around the identified range, we discovered that adjusting the threshold to 1,100 AP Yards and above resulted in a 13.8% higher appearance rate in the top 10 compared to the bottom 10. To explain this clearly, what this is saying is as follows: if you finish one college season with 1,076 (before rounding) or more AP Yardage and have a role on an NFL roster, you are more likely to finish top 10 PPR at least once in your career than not. This threshold will be the subject of this study going forward, and will be our optimal range for this metric.
We divided the top 50 fantasy finishers up into smaller groups, ranging from the top 10 to the top 50. The minimum AP Yards for each category were as seen below:
From this analysis, we identified 100 AP Yards as a critical threshold for our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model. This model will be designed to attempt to predict successes and busts in NFL prospects. Essentially, Wide Receivers must have at least one season where they have 76 AP Yards in order to not be considered a future bust by our model, which we understand isn’t saying much for this metric. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2027 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:
Support these analytics and unlock our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, where all of our research comes together in one table for all positions. 7 day free trial. Cancel anytime.
Employing standard statistical methods, we calculated a Pearson Value of 0.138. This shows a strong correlation between a wide receiver’s best AP college yardage season and fantasy production. Typically, for evaluations of world-class athletes as we are looking at, a Pearson value exceeding 0.1 (or below -0.1) indicates meaningful correlation. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.
Next, we examined our optimal range across different decades. This revealed how significant this best AP college yardage season range is for top 10, 11th-40th, and bottom 10 finishers. This showed the following trend: the significance of our optimal range remained a steady predictor across the last two decades.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 92 | 282 | 95 |
| All 1,100 and above | 58 | 148 | 46 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 63.0% | 52.5% | 48.4% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 100 | 299 | 97 |
| All 1,100 and above | 75 | 205 | 59 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 75.0% | 68.6% | 60.8% |
We now wanted to assess how the 2024 Rookie WR class aligns with the optimal best AP college yardage Season range we identified. Our findings are shown in the following breakdown, showcasing the promising prospects of the 2024 class.
| Jalen McMillan | 1100 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1109 |
| Jamari Thrash | 1127 |
| Javon Baker | 1139 |
| Brian Thomas | 1171 |
| Ja’Lynn Polk | 1191 |
| Xavier Legette | 1246 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 1295 |
| Malachi Corley | 1382 |
| Troy Franklin | 1383 |
| Jacob Cowing | 1429 |
| Malik Washington | 1433 |
| Malik Nabers | 1570 |
| Rome Odunze | 1677 |
| Jha’Quan Jackson | 562 |
| Cornelius Johnson | 650 |
| Jordan Whittington | 652 |
| Casey Washington | 670 |
| Devaughn Vele | 691 |
| Bub Means | 721 |
| Anthony Gould | 740 |
| Brenden Rice | 791 |
| Jermaine Burton | 798 |
| Keon Coleman | 798 |
| Roman Wilson | 799 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 846 |
| Ainias Smith | 857 |
| Tejhaun Palmer | 858 |
| Ladd McConkey | 896 |
| Johnny Wilson | 897 |
| Devontez Walker | 950 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1023 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 1027 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1049 |
| Tahj Washington | 1072 |
The decadal differences chart indicated that the discovered optimal range, particularly 1,100 AP Yards and above, consistently led to top performances more than bottom performances. Further, we had statistical support to back up our theory that a WR’s best AP yardage season can predict NFL success. Look for players at or above 1,076 AP Yards for a boost in their NFL potential. If they finish at least one college season with 1,076 AP Yards or higher and if they have a role on an NFL team, they are more than likely to finish top 10 PPR than not at least once.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 40 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Defensive End Height: Does it matter? If so, what’s the height threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
Everybody knows stats are cool, but which stats are the coolest and mean the most? Additionally, what are the target benchmarks athletes should aim to achieve in each statistic? That's what this chart answers. Type in your desired position in the "Position" field to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Then, filter the success boost or Pearson value from highest to lowest to see which stats mean the most. Pearson values of 0.1 and higher OR -0.1 or lower indicates correlation. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.49/month!
Support these analytics and unlock our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, where all of our research comes together in one table for all positions. 7 day free trial. Cancel anytime.
BrainyBallers Buy-Hold-Sell Chart (All Players)
Make Money on BrainyBallers’ (Or anyone’s) content if it turns out to be incorrect!
Get Your Products 100% Refunded By Predicting The Next SuperBowl Winner!
In Part 38 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked to solve the question of whether a Linebacker’s Relative Athletic Score
For part 37 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we attempted to find whether a linebacker’s 40-yard dash time can predict their
In Part 35 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked to find whether a linebacker’s weight could predict their success in
