For part 17 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into an intriguing question: Can NFL combine broad jumps predict NFL wide receiver success? Here are all the details of our findings and insights we discovered.
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To start, we looked at the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003. For scoring, we used the Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy scoring system. Throughout this article, you will see the term “bottom 10.” This refers to finishers ranked 41-50 each season.
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We created an averages chart for the top 5, top 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th place finishers since 2003. This chart is made to help us observe potential patterns among elite and less successful WRs. From this chart, it is tough to spot any trends.
To compare top and bottom 10 finishers since 2003, we segmented out all finishers in both of these groups into 1-inch increments. The goal was to identify where the highest performance increases occur by comparing the top 10 to bottom 10 charts below. If there is any trend, it appears as though there is more weight towards higher broad jumps in the top 10 when compared to the bottom 10.
We constructed a differences chart which compares NFL Combine broad jump measurements over a 10-inch spread. By subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10, the goal with this was to hone in on identifying the most productive range. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the desired consistent top level performances we are hoping for. The findings from this chart are that the most significant performance range appears to be between 125 and 145 inches.
Next, we wanted to verify if this range was significant for all wide receivers, or specifically top-performing ones. In the bottom 10, 111 WRs completed the broad jump at the NFL Combine. Out of those 111, 23 fell into the 125-145 inch range, accounting for 20.7%. This percentage serves as a baseline for our comparison. If more than 20.7% occurs in the top 10, then we found the threshold of an average top performing WR, not just an average WR.
In the top 10 since 2003, there were 112 who had broad jump measurements taken at the combine. 34 of these 112 had a broad jump between 125-145, which equates to 30.4%, and a 9.7% increase over the bottom 10 finishers.
Our study didn’t stop at the initial increased production range we just emphasized. We upgraded our spreadsheet to be able to adjust the broad jump ranges quickly to pinpoint the highest producing range, using the 125-145 inch range as a baseline. Upon fine-tuning this range, we found that the 126 to 138-inch range occurs at a 15.1% higher rate in the top 10 versus the bottom 10 since 2003! This range will be the subject of our study going forward.
We then asked the question of what broad jump has never happened at different thresholds since 2003. This was to find a minimum requirement for broad jumps for our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model where we will attempt to predict busts and successes. The hopes is to have this ready by the beginning of the 2025 season. Here is a breakdown of the top 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 of the minimum broad jump measurements that occurred in each of those thresholds.
| Top 10 min | 105 |
| Top 20 Min | 105 |
| Top 30 Min | 103 |
| Top 40 Min | 103 |
| Top 50 Min | 103 |
Due to these findings, 105 will be the critical value in our SPS model which prospects must achieve to not be considered a future bust.
Next, we looked to use standard statistical methods to see if there is a correlation between broad jump distances and fantasy production. Here are the findings:
Generally, a P-Value below 0.05 indicates a strong correlation. Therefore, our P-Value suggests a lack of significant correlation between broad jump performance and fantasy points. The Rsquared value indicates the percentage of variance in fantasy points that can be explained by broad jump distances. An Rsquared of 0.00056 tells us that only 0.056% of the variation in fantasy production can be attributed to broad jump performance. Thus, a staggering 99.94% of fantasy points variances are due to other factors. Generally, we are hoping for a minimum of 1.0% Rsquared if there is correlation in the P-Value since we are studying world class athletes. For reference to data which prevailed correlation, part 13 of our “Does It Matter?” series found that BMI predicts 1.4% of the changes in WR fantasy points. Here is the regression chart for reference:
Even though there was no regression testing support, we wanted to understand how our broad jump range evolved across the last two decades. Our results indicated similar trends in both decades, although in the most recent decade this range diminished slightly, as seen by the decrease in frequency by a 2.9%.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 41 | 141 | 41 |
| Between 126 and 138 | 11 | 33 | 4 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 26.8% | 23.4% | 9.8% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 68 | 206 | 66 |
| Between 126 and 138 | 21 | 46 | 11 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 30.9% | 22.3% | 16.7% |
Next, we wanted to compare how the 2024 rookie WR NFL class’ broad jump data fits within the range we identified. Further, we were hoping to use our critical value to identify any prospects who may have a much higher probability of being a bust. Here is the breakdown:
Across all athletes in our dataset (since 2003), we calculated an average NFL Combine broad jump distance of 121.3 inches and a median distance of 121.0 inches.
Although broad jumps alone aren’t a standard metric for predicting NFL WR success, our data shows that a range of 126 to 138 inches is optimal. This is evident from the fact that it is more prevalent among top 10 fantasy finishers than bottom 10 finishers. This metric, while tested alongside other combine measurements, could be a valuable tool for scouting potential WR talent. We will eventually attempt to put together models which test different variances of metrics.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 18 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of the WR Shuttle drill: Does it matter? If so, what’s the Shuttle time threshold necessary for success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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