Defensive Back Height: Does It Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis

For part 30 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into the question of whether a defensive back’s height can be a predictor of their success in the NFL. By utilizing our collected data, we found an optimal range which has a higher appearance rate in the top performers. Here are all of our findings:

Methodology

To conduct this study, we used the top 50 fantasy football finishers each season since 2003. Our primary focus was on identifying any notable differences between players who finished in the top 10 and those in the “bottom 10,” defined as finishers ranking 41st to 50th each season.

Why the top 50? The reason we chose the top 50 is to find a happy medium. We don’t want to go further than the top 50 and start getting close to the fringe roster members whom obviously are not going to score top 10. These players could therefore just weigh the data. On the other hand, We want to compare the worst to the best still. Comparing the top 10 to the 11th place finisher, or an average number that takes into account the 11th place finisher, doesn’t satisfy our personal itch to try to find trends.

Analyzing DB Height Averages

The first thing we did was create an averages chart to depict the height trends among various groups of finishers. Those finisher groups are as follows: the top 5, top 10, finishes ranked 11th-30th, and those ranked 31st-50th. This analysis revealed a solid trend: in 16 out of 21 seasons (76.2%), players who finished in the top 10 had heights that were equivalent to or taller than players in the 31st-50th group.

This suggests a potential correlation where taller defensive backs are more likely to achieve higher fantasy scores.

Segmented Top & Bottom 10 Finishers Since 2003

Further, we segmented the top 10 finishers since 2003 into increments of 1/8″. This attempt aimed to identify any significant height-related trends amongst top-performing defensive backs. However, this segmentation did not reveal any clear or significant correlations. As you can see below, the top 10 has a larger sample size, but the weight of the graph does not appear to change going from the top 10 to the bottom 10.

Differences Chart

Our main goal was to determine a specific height threshold, or range, for Defensive Backs that corresponds to the highest performance increase. To achieve this, we developed a differences chart comparing each height, plus the following two inches, and subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10 finishers. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the desired consistent top level performances we are hoping for. This analysis revealed 5’10-1/8” and above as the potential performance threshold, as you can see from the chart below:

Verifying the Optimal DB Height Threshold: Bottom 10

Our next step involved comparing this height threshold to all DBs who finished in the bottom 10 from 2003 onwards. Out of 190 DBs, 153 were at or above this height threshold, representing 80.5%. This figure served as a baseline for comparison to the top 10. This comparison will help us decide whether we identified the average height for all DBs, or specifically top-performing DBs. If over 80.5% of the top 10 finishers were above this threshold, it would confirm the latter of those two.

Verifying the Optimal DB Height Threshold: Top 10

Looking into the top 10 finishers from 2003 to 2023 revealed that 164 out of 186 finishers fell within this height threshold, accounting for 88.2%. This indicates a 7.6% increase compared to the baseline. This considerable increase led us to believe that we had pinpointed the average height for specifically top-performing DBs. Although, we wanted to adjust this threshold to be sure we found the top performing one.

Verifying the Optimal DB Height Threshold: Fine-Tuning

To verify the accuracy of this threshold, we experimented with various thresholds near the differences chart’s findings. Upon testing, setting the height threshold to 5’10-3/8” and above yielded a 14.1% higher rate of top 10 appearances than bottom 10 finishes. This refined height threshold of 5’10-3/8” and above will be the focus of this study going forward.

Establishing the Critical Height Threshold for DB Height

Our next analysis started by separating the top 50 fantasy players into subsets of 10 in an attempt to find the critical values. This will allow us to define critical height thresholds for DBs. The critical value is simply the threshold at which an outcome change could occur. This essentially is the absolute minimum. Here is the breakdown:

From this, 5’7-3/4” is our critical threshold for DB’s when we produce our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model which will attempt to predict successes/busts. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2025 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:

DB Height Regression Testing

Our examination of standard statistical methods yielded the following results:

• P-Value: 0.024
• R²: 0.00522

A P-Value below 0.05 identifies a strong correlation between a DB’s Height and their fantasy points. Although, The low R² value indicates that only about 0.5% of variance in fantasy points can be attributed to DB height, which is lower than our desired minimum. When studying world-class athletes as we are, an R² value of 0.01 (1.0%) and above is what we are hoping for. The DB Height regression chart can be seen below:

Decadal Differences

We further extended our study by trying to find timely trends in heights for DB’s across the last 2 decades. By comparing top 10, 11-40, and bottom 10 players over 2 decades, we determined this to be a very slightly diminishing trend.

Application to 2024 Rookie DB NFL Class

We applied our optimal height threshold to the 2024 rookie class to explore who fell within, or outside, our optimal range. All the players are broken down into both categories below:

2024 NFL Rookies in our optimal range (5’10-3/8” and above):

2024 NFL Rookies out of our optimal range (5’10-1/4” and below):

Conclusion

While DB height has a minor statistical impact, we found an optimal range that appears in the top 10 more than the bottom 10. Although, heights for defensive backs will hold extremely small weight in our SPS model. If you are a believer in DB Heights, 5’10-3/8” and above is the range you should look for in athletes.

More Data Next Week!

Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 31 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Defensive Backs Weight: Does it matter? If so, what’s the weight threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!

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