Can Rookie Yards Per Game Predict A Quarterbacks’ NFL Success?

For our 58th installment of the “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into whether a quarterback’s rookie Yards Per Game (YPG) can be used as a predictor of their future success in fantasy football. By using historical data since 2003, we aimed to identify what the trend is, if any, for predicting future performances. Here are all of our findings:

Methodology

To understand what the future impact of rookie YPG is, we looked at the top 30 quarterbacks each year since 2003. We lined up every players’ yearly Fantasy Football leaderboard finish with their Yards Per Game total in their rookie season. We defined rookie Yards Per Game as the season they started at least 5 games, then we took their yardage total for that season and divided it by how many games they played in. Throughout this study, you will hear the term “bottom 10”, which we define as those finishing 21st to 30th. To ensure rookie-year struggles didn’t skew our results, we deliberately excluded rookie seasons from the Fantasy leaderboards while obviously still taking into account their rookie YPG for their future fantasy leaderboard data entries.

QB Rookie YPG Averages Chart Analysis

Our analysis began by compiling the average YPG scores for several groups of finishers on a yearly basis since 2003: the top 5, top 10, the 11th-20th, and the 21st-30th place finishers. This data revealed a clear connection between higher rookie YPG and higher fantasy scores. As you can see, 18 out of 21 seasons (85.7%), the top 5 finishers had equal or superior rookie YPG compared to those in the bottom 10 group.

Segmented Top & Bottom 10 Finishers Since 2003

To further understand this trend, we examined top and bottom 10 finishers and sorted them into 10 YPG increments. The distribution of both of these charts showed that quarterbacks with superior rookie YPG typically had better future fantasy football scores. Those charts can be seen below, with the top 10 coming first:

QB Rookie YPG Differences Chart Analysis

Our main goal was to find a passing yards-per-game threshold where the highest performance increases occur and also which showcases high-performing consistency. To achieve this, we created a differences chart which subtracts the bottom 10 performers’ YPG from the top 10 across each possible 30 YPG segment. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. This analysis indicated that achieving 180 rookie YPG and above consistently correlated with top-level fantasy performances. We will next attempt to verify this as the top producing range.

Verifying the Optimal QB Rookie YPG Range

By testing ranges and thresholds close to what the differences chart revealed to us, we further refined our findings. We determined that 190 and above YPG has a 28.8% increased rate of appearances in the top 10 over the bottom 10. Therefore, and before rounding, 186 and above passing yards per game is what you should look for in a Quarterback who for the first time in their career have 5 games started in a season.

Star-Predictor Score (SPS) Predictive Model

Due to these findings, rookie YPG could play a factor in our Post-Rookie Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profiles. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here.

QB Rookie YPG Pearson Value

Applying standard statistical methods to the relationship of rookie ypg and all future fantasy points by the athletes revealed a Pearson correlation value of 0.228, indicating a strong relationship between a quarterback’s rookie YPG and their future fantasy performance. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value. This means Rookie YPG to future success means equally as much as draft capital to Running Backs, just in opposite ways.

Decadal Differences

Nest, we split this range up across the last two decades to see how this trend is evolving. We split it up into different ranges: top 5, 6th-24th place, and bottom 5. As you can see, although the optimal range’s significance is weakening, it still holds significance over all.

Start Dominating Rookie Drafts!

What 3 metrics matter the most when scouting a rookie Quarterback? What threshold should Quarterbacks achieve within those metrics to be considered an elite prospect? How much should you value those stats above all other stats? Couldn't answer those questions? Rest easy, we have it handled for you. That's what this chart answers. Sort by importance and/or filter by position. Unlock by signing up with the links provided. $2.99/Month, $19.99/Year, or $59.99 Lifetime access. Rookie Star-Predictor Score (SPS) grades included. Cancel anytime.

Conclusion

Our analysis provided evidence that a quarterback’s rookie passing yards per game is a significant predictor of future fantasy success. We established the 190 YPG threshold as the predictor of more probable top 10 appearances than bottom 10. With standard statistical support, the higher a rookie’s passing yards per game, the better and more likely they are to reach the top 10 past their rookie season.

More Data Next Week!

Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 59 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Quarterback Rookie TD/G: Does It Matter? If so, what’s the Touchdowns per game threshold necessary for success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!

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