Defensive End 40 Yard Dash Times: Do They Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis

In part 42 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we collected and examined data to find the significance of a Defensive End’s 40-yard dash time in predicting their success in the NFL. From this, we found an optimal 40 yard dash time range and applied standard statistical analysis to find out how predictable fantasy points are using 40-times for Defensive Ends.

Methodology

For our data, we strictly used measurements from the NFL Draft Combine, applying them to the top 50 fantasy football finishers annually since 2003. We excluded any player labeled as a Defensive Tackle. Throughout this study, you will see the term “bottom 10”, which is defined as the 41-50th fantasy football finishers each season.

Why the top 50? Our selection of analyzing the top 50 players stems from the desire to maintain a “happy medium.” Going further than the top 50 would include fringe roster players. This could simply skew our data. On the other hand, we wanted to truly compare the “best” to the “worst,” which would not be simply the top 10 to the next 10 (11th to 20th place).

Analyzing DE 40-Times Averages

To begin our study, we categorized the annual leaderboards into several tiers: the top 5, 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th place finishers. This allowed us to spot obvious trends in where the slower or faster 40-times finish in terms of fantasy production. From this, we spotted a significant trend: 16 out of 21 seasons (76.2%), the top 5 finishers had the same, or quicker, 40-times than those in the 31st-50th positions. This gives validation to the theory that faster Defensive Ends often translate to higher effectiveness in fantasy football.

Segmented Top & Bottom 10 Finishers Since 2003

To look into the data further, we broke down the 40-yard dash times of the top and bottom 10 finishers since 2003 into 0.01-second increments. This analysis revealed that the top 10 chart is more weighted towards quicker 40 yard dash times. Those charts can be seen below, with the top 10 coming first:

DE 40-Times Differences Chart Analysis

We next wanted to identify a threshold where performance significantly increases, with consistency following, avoiding the one-hit wonders of the league. To achieve this, we created a differences chart. This chart compared each 40-yard dash time plus the next 0.03 seconds, subtracting the bottom 10 performers’ results from the top 10’s. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. From this, the 4.84-second threshold emerged as a possible optimal range. However, we will next attempt to verify this as the top producing range.

Verifying the Optimal DE 40-Times Range

Number crunching in our spreadsheets allowed us to refine the range further. By adjusting the 4.84 second and below threshold, we discovered that the best performing range was between 4.61 and 4.83 seconds. This range boasted a 35.1% higher appearance rate in the top 10 compared to the bottom 10. This will therefore be our optimal range for DE 40-times, and will be the subject of this research going forward.

Establishing the Critical DE 40-Times Threshold

Next, we wanted to split the top 50 fantasy finishers into increments: top 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50. This is for our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will attempt to verify successes and busts. Essentially, this is for finding the bare minimum (or max in this case) desired amount for a DE’s 40-time.

Max 40-Yard Dash Times

• Top 10: 5.11 seconds
• Top 20: 5.11 seconds
• Top 30: 5.11 seconds
• Top 40: 5.11 seconds
• Top 50: 5.11 seconds

Due to these findings, 5.11 seconds became our critical threshold for Defensive Ends in our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model. Essentially, Defensive Ends must run at most 5.11 seconds in order to not be considered a future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2027 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:

DE 40-Times Pearson Value

Using standard statistical methods, we calculated a Pearson value of -0.0709. This value indicates no significant correlation between a DE’s 40-yard time and their fantasy production. Typically, we are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.

Decadal Differences

Next, we applied our optimal 40-time range across both of the last two decades to track trends among the top 10, 11-40th finishers, and bottom 10. Despite a declining trend, the T10 to B10 difference remained significant in the most recent decade. Although, overall this is a dying trend.

Application to Rookie DE NFL Class

Lastly, we explored how the 2024 rookie DE class aligns with our optimal 40-time range. We broke this down into rookies who fell within our optimal range, those who fell out of it, and those who did not run the 40 yard dash. That breakdown can be seen below:

2024 NFL Draft Rookies in our optimal range (4.61 to 4.83 seconds):

2024 NFL Draft Rookies out of our optimal range:

2024 NFL Draft Rookies with no recorded 40-times:

Conclusion

Through our data analysis, we were able to pinpoint an optimal range. While speed does appear to be influential, it apparently does not serve as a sole determinant of success. 4.61 to 4.83 seconds is the optimal range, but without standard statistical support, it becomes hard to validate 40 yard dashes as a reliable indicator of fantasy football success. Due to it being a near miss per the Pearson value, it will have little weight in our SPS model.

Key Stats Every NFL Scout Should Know, Ranked

Everybody knows stats are cool, but which stats are the coolest and mean the most? Additionally, what are the target benchmarks athletes should aim to achieve in each statistic? That's what this chart answers. Type in your desired position in the "Position" field to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Then, filter the success boost or Pearson value from highest to lowest to see which stats mean the most. Pearson values of 0.1 and higher OR -0.1 or lower indicates correlation. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.99/month!

More Data Next Week!

Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 43 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Defensive End RAS (Relative Athletic Score): Does it matter? If so, what’s the RAS threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!

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