In our extensive 65-part “Does It Matter?” series, we have explored various metrics to gauge their effectiveness in predicting an NFL player’s future success. This article focuses on whether a Tight End’s 10-yard split can serve as a reliable predictor, possibly showcasing their burst coming off the line. By crunching numbers since 2003, our findings offer insights that can aid decision-making in player evaluations. Here are all of our findings:
For the structure of our research, we analyzed the top 50 PPR fantasy football finishers from 2003 onwards. As far as the 10-yard split data, we only used NFL Draft combine split data. In this study, the term “bottom 10” is frequently used. This refers to fantasy finishers ranked 41st-50th each season.
Why the top 50? Our goal was to strike a “happy medium.” Including more than the top 50 would mean using close to fringe roster players, who clearly won’t score in the top 10 and therefore could only distort the data. Although, we wanted to be able to compare the best to the worst to find where the differences are. To effectively do this, we focused on comparing the top 10 to those ranked 41st-50th.
To identify any clear trends, we split all finishers into four categories then charted them to spot obvious visual trends. Those categories are as follows:
By averaging the 10-yard splits over these tiers since 2003, a trend began to emerge: in 19 out of 21 seasons (90.5%), the Top 5 finishers exhibited lower 10-yard splits compared to those in the 31st-50th place finisher bracket. This suggests a potential link between a faster 10-yard split and increased fantasy performance.
By further segmenting out the top 10 finishers’ split times into 0.01-second increments we can see a much more granular insight into the bottom and top 10 finishers. From this, you can see that there is a higher frequency of quicker 10-yard splits in the top 10 when compared to the bottom 10. This is evident from the contrast in distribution and weight across the two charts.
In our pursuit to pinpoint an effective threshold where performance significantly improves and player consistency is maximized, we developed a differences chart. This chart compares each 10-yard split time, plus the next 0.05 seconds, subtracting the bottom 10 from the top 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. Based on this analysis, a 10-yard split time of 1.61 seconds and below emerged as a potential top performing range, which we will attempt to verify or debunk next.
In order to verify this range, we looked to our spreadsheet to make range adjustments to confirm this as the highest producing threshold. By testing various splits near our identified thresholds, we concluded that maintaining the range at 1.61 seconds and below led to a 24.6% higher appearance rate in the top 10 compared to the bottom 10. This range has therefore been designated as the optimal range you should look for in your favorite athletes.
Due to these findings, 10-yard splits could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. Since 1.5 seconds is the lowest 10-yard split seen since 2003 in the top 10, that will be the critical value in the SPS. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profiles. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here.
Using standard statistical methods, we’ve validated these findings with a Pearson Value of -0.191. This strong inverse correlation between a TE’s 10-yard split time and their future fantasy production confirms the significance of the identified range. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
Next, we compared performances across decades to observe how our optimal range influences the ranking of top 10, 11th-40th, and bottom 10 finishers to compare decades. It was evident from the decadal differences chart that our optimal range is becoming an increasingly significant factor in predicting high-level performances.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 53 | 179 | 61 |
| All 1.61 and below | 16 | 38 | 9 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 30.2% | 21.2% | 14.8% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 60 | 164 | 56 |
| All 1.61 and below | 32 | 66 | 11 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 53.3% | 40.2% | 19.6% |
What 3 metrics matter the most when scouting a rookie Quarterback? What threshold should Quarterbacks achieve within those metrics to be considered an elite prospect? How much should you value those stats above all other stats? Couldn't answer those questions? Rest easy, we have it handled for you. That's what this chart answers. Sort by importance and/or filter by position. Unlock by signing up with the links provided. $9.99/Year or $24.99 Lifetime access. Cancel anytime.
Our study supported the hypothesis that a Tight End’s 10-yard split holds substantial weight in predicting their future NFL success. Perhaps due to showing how quick they get off the line, 10-yard splits should be taken into account when evaluating up-and-coming talents. 10-Yard Split’s integration into our StarPredictor Score model will hold a significant weight due to its strong Pearson correlation value. As far as scouting, everyone should hope for a 1.61 seconds and below 10-yard split from their favorite athletes.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 66 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Wide Receiver Arm Length: Does It Matter? If so, what’s the arm length threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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