Defensive End RAS: Does It Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis

In part 43 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked to answer the question of whether the Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of Defensive Ends can predict their success in the NFL. This analysis is especially useful for choosing between two players or coming to a conclusion on one specific player, but it shouldn’t be seen as a conclusive predictor of a player’s success or failure potential. We’ve crunched the numbers and analyzed our data from the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003. From this, we found an optimal range which we applied to the 2024 rookie DE NFL draft class. Here’s a breakdown of all our findings.

What Is RAS?

Relative Athletic Score (RAS) is a metric used to evaluate the athleticism of NFL prospects based on their performances in Combine and Pro Day drills. Developed by Kent Lee Platte in 2013, RAS takes various physical attributes such as speed, agility, explosiveness, and size to normalize them on a scale from 0 to 10. The results are then color-coded to provide a quick visual comparison of a player’s athletic traits relative to other players of the same position. This system helps teams and analysts quickly assess the athletic potential of prospects. Us at BrainyBallers have used RAS religiously in evaluating talents.

Methodology

To answer our primary question, we chose the top 50 fantasy football finishers each season since 2003. For clarification, the “bottom 10”, or “B10”, refers to those finishing between 41st and 50th place each season. For our data, we excluded anyone who had a defensive tackle label.

Why the top 50? Choosing the top 50 allowed us to achieve what we call a “happy medium”. Extending beyond this would include fringe roster players who are unlikely to enter the top 10 and therefore would only skew the data. Although, by focusing on the top and bottom 10, we can truly compare the best to the worst.

Analyzing DE RAS Averages

We developed an averages chart which highlights the average RAS of finishers in the top 5, 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th places. Over the 21-year dataset (2003-2023) in this chart, we found no trends. In 47.6% of the seasons, the top 5 players recorded equal or lower RAS compared to those finishing 31st-50th.

Segmented Top & Bottom 10 Finishers Since 2003

More interesting findings came when we segmented the top 10 finishers into 0.1 RAS increments. Here, the data skewed towards higher RAS scores in the top 10 versus the bottom 10. This indicates potential predictive potential in these ranges. You can see both of those charts next, with the top 10 coming first:

DE RAS Differences Chart Analysis

Our goal was to pinpoint a range that occurs the most in the top 10 versus the bottom 10 while also being aware of the one-hit wonders of the league. To achieve this, we created our differences chart. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for.

By comparing each RAS score, plus the next 0.5 RAS, and subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10, we seen an obvious pattern. A RAS of 8.3 and above appeared to be a high-performance threshold, bringing us closer to identifying the optimal range. It is worthwhile to note that the reason this chart was mainly positive was due to an imbalance of RAS available for the top 10 versus the bottom 10 since 2003. Even though there is an imbalance, it is the appearance rate of a range we are trying to hone in on. therefore, we will next attempt to verify 8.3 and above as the top-producing range.

Verifying the Optimal DE RAS Range

To verify this range, we utilized our spreadsheet to alter this threshold to various ones to attempt to find a better producing one. Testing various numbers in proximity to our initial findings did lead to a higher producing range. We discovered that setting our threshold at 8.7 RAS and above resulted in a 20.2% increase in top 10 appearances compared to the bottom 10. Thus, this range will be a subject in of this research going forward.

Establishing the Critical DE RAS Threshold

Next, we broke down the top 50 fantasy finishers into groups of top 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50. Through this, we identified critical thresholds for RAS for our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will attempt to forecast future successes or busts. Those findings are as follows:

• Top 10 Minimum RAS: 2.73 RAS
• Top 20 Minimum RAS: 2.73 RAS
• Top 30 Minimum RAS: 1.75 RAS
• Top 40 Minimum RAS: 1.75 RAS
• Top 50 Minimum RAS: 1.75 RAS

Due to these findings, 2.73 RAS became our critical threshold for Defensive Ends in our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model. Essentially, Defensive Ends must have at least a 2.73 RAS in order to not be considered a future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2027 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:

DE RAS Pearson Value

While examining our data using standard statistical methods, the Pearson value came back as 0.083. This shows no significant correlation between a DE’s RAS and their fantasy output using standard methods. Typically we are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 while studying world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.

Decadal Differences

We further broke down our optimal range across decade, comparing the impact of it on the top 10, 11th-40th place finishers, and bottom 10. The decadal differences chart revealed that the optimal range we pinpointed is consistently significant over time, as you can see below:

Application to Rookie DE NFL Class

Finally, we turned our attention to the 2024 Rookie DE NFL class. We assessed how these rookies align with the optimal RAS range we identified. We broke it down into players who fell within our optimal range, those who are not in it, and those with no RAS.

2024 NFL Draft Rookies in our optimal range (8.7 and above):

2024 NFL Draft Rookies out of our optimal range:

2024 NFL Draft Rookies with no recorded RAS:

Conclusion

Through our analysis on DE RAS, we were able to pinpoint an optimal range. While RAS is not a sole determinant of NFL success, it apparently does have some influence if success. 8.7 and above RAS is the optimal range, but without standard statistical support it is hard to validate RAS as a reliable indicator of fantasy football success by itself. Due to it being a near miss per the Pearson value, it will have little weight in our SPS model.

Key Stats Every NFL Scout Should Know, Ranked

Everybody knows stats are cool, but which stats are the coolest and mean the most? Additionally, what are the target benchmarks athletes should aim to achieve in each statistic? That's what this chart answers. Type in your desired position in the "Position" field to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Then, filter the success boost or Pearson value from highest to lowest to see which stats mean the most. Pearson values of 0.1 and higher OR -0.1 or lower indicates correlation. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.99/month!

More Data Next Week!

Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 44 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Wide Receiver Draft Capital: Does it matter? If so, what’s the Overall threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!

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