The Projected 100.0 SPS QB In The 2026 NFL Draft
11/12/2025
No Comments
To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the
For the next installment in our 82-part “Does It Matter?” series, we wanted to look into a critical metric for long-term dynasty success: the Draft Age of a Tight End. Does a prospect’s age when they enter the league genuinely help predict whether they will become a league winner? We wanted to find whether it does it matter, how much it matters, and a benchmark for identifying success. Here are all of our findings.
To conduct this analysis, we gathered data for the top 50 PPR fantasy football Tight End finishers every season since 2003. For comparison purposes, we segmented the field into the high-end performers and the low-end performers. Throughout this article, references to the “Bottom 10” refer specifically to those players who finished 41st through 50th in annual PPR scoring.
Why only the top 50? The selection of the Top 50 annual finishers provided a “happy medium” for our analysis. We needed a large enough sample to establish meaningful variance without dipping into true fringe players — those who are guaranteed to finish outside the Top 50 and would only skew results.
Our first step was creating an averages chart that compared several different performance tiers: Top 5, Top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th place finishers. From these averages, a slight but undeniable trend emerged: lower draft ages typically correlated with higher fantasy scores. In 15 out of 21 seasons (71.4%), the average draft age of the Top 5 finishers was lower than the average draft age of the 31st-50th place finishers. This indicated that youth, on average, was correlated with eventual elite output.
While the averages showed a possible correlation, the precise age-related sweet spot was not yet clear. To find the definitive benchmark, we charted every Top 10 finisher since 2003 and segmented the results into 0.1-rounded draft age buckets. From this, you can see a slight weight and distribution difference in the top 10 where it leaned more towards younger Tight Ends. You can see these charts next, with the top 10 coming first.
To move beyond averages and spot a truly applicable benchmark that signals top-level consistency (minimizing the appearance of unique, outlier players), we created a Differences Chart. This directly compares the Top 10 elite performers against the Bottom 10 players. This chart takes each 0.5-year draft age bucket and subtracts the frequency of Bottom 10 results from the frequency of Top 10 results within that same bucket. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). From this chart, the age of 21.7 and below appeared to be a strong initial signal for a top-performing range, getting us much closer to defining the optimal window.
With the 21.7 range identified as our initial target, we performed quick, iterative range adjustments in our spreadsheet to ensure we identified the absolute highest producing range possible that maximizes the signal-to-noise ratio.
After testing various numbers close to the range our Differences Chart showed, we discovered that altering this threshold to 21.2 and below maximizes the signal. This precise range produces a 16.0% higher Top 10 appearance rate compared to the Bottom 10. This is the optimal age threshold that you should hope for in your favorite athletes and will be the subject of our study going forward. This range will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view seen here:
Due to these findings, Draft Ages could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
It is essential to test our findings against standard statistical methods to understand the nature of the correlation across the entire dataset. Our standard statistical analysis produced a Pearson Value of -0.081.
For context, the accompanying Pearson value for QB draft capital – a metric everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting – prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value. When studying world-class athletes as we are, a Pearson value greater than 0.1 (or less than -0.1) is considered significant. Therefore, this -0.081 value shows no significant linear correlation between a Tight End’s draft age and their future fantasy production when looking at the entire dataset.
Finally, we compared decades to spot timely trends and gauge how significant our optimal TE draft age range is within each decade. We separated the data into three performance buckets: Top 10, 11th-40th place finishers, and Bottom 10.
This analysis is perhaps the most compelling finding of all. Our 21.2 and below optimal range is a decreasing trend in the most recent decade, showcasing a 28.3% frequency decrease in Top 10 finishers compared to the prior decade. This suggests that the NFL is concerned less about having youthful tight ends, making this draft age benchmark less important now than ever before.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 64 | 217 | 73 |
| All 21.2 and below | 22 | 31 | 5 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 34.4% | 14.3% | 6.8% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 67 | 158 | 48 |
| All 21.2 and below | 12 | 22 | 9 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 17.9% | 13.9% | 18.8% |
Tight End Draft Age is not a strong predictor of fantasy football success. The analysis did locate a specific, 21.2 and below window. Over the last two decades, this has produced the most top 10 fantasy performances. Although, it is recommended to not use this metric unless it adds to the predictive ability of a larger model.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 83 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Vertical Jumps: Do They Matter? If so, what’s the draft age threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
BrainyBallers Buy-Hold-Sell Chart (All Players)
Get Your Products 100% Refunded By Predicting The Next SuperBowl Winner!
To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the
Welcome to our now 86-part “Does It Matter?” series dedicated to finding out which metrics matter for fantasy football production. In this
To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the