Can College PFF Passer Rating Help Predict A Quarterbacks’ NFL Success?
05/03/2025
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In the 56th installment of our “Does It Matter?” series, we dive into college PFF Passer ratings to see whether they can
Jaxson Dart’s journey into the spotlight of the Big Apple began in the town of Kaysville, Utah. Born here, his early years set the stage for what would become an illustrious career in football. Here is the story of Jaxson Dart, and why we think he is destined to be the next great NFL Quarterback.
Dart’s football beginning took precedence during his initial years at Roy High School, where he spent his freshman to junior years. Seeking greater opportunities, Dart transferred to Corner Canyon High School in Draper, Utah, for his senior year. Corner Canyon two years prior sent Zach Wilson to BYU – a probable reason Dart transferred. This move proved to be successful, providing him with the platform to exhibit his full potential. As a senior, Dart amassed 4,691 passing yards, breaking state records with 67 touchdowns and only four interceptions. His dual-threat capability was on full display as he also rushed for 1,195 yards and 12 touchdowns. This iconic season earned him the prestigious titles of Gatorade Football Player of the Year and MaxPreps National Player of the Year.
Over his high school career, Dart accumulated remarkable statistics: 10,688 passing yards and 117 touchdowns. His skills extended beyond the football field, as he was a two-time all-state third baseman, showcasing his athletic versatility. As a football recruit, he achieved a four-star rating from Rivals and 247 Sports, with an ESPN grade of 89.
Turning his attention to college, Dart then committed to the University of Southern California (USC), choosing the Trojans over Arizona State. Dart’s entry into college football was nothing short of dramatic. On September 18, 2021, during a game against Washington State, he replaced the injured Kedon Slovis in the second drive. Despite a rocky start with an interception, Dart quickly found his rhythm. He threw a 38-yard touchdown pass and finished the game with 391 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. His performance not only led USC to a resounding 42–14 victory, but also set a new record for most passing yards ever by a USC QB in a debut.
Following the 2021 season, Lincoln Riley made headlines by departing Oklahoma to accept a position as head coach at the University of Southern California (USC). This unexpected move sparked a whirlwind of rumors and uncertainty, particularly surrounding Oklahoma’s talented quarterback, Caleb Williams. Would Williams follow his coach to USC? Spoiler: he did.
As speculation swirled, Jaxson Dart decided to enter the NCAA transfer portal. Seeking clarity and opportunity, Dart and fellow USC teammate Michael Trigg made the decision to enroll at Ole Miss. Under his new head coach Lane Kiffin, Dart quickly rose to become the primary starting quarterback, a role that would soon catapult him into the national spotlight.
At Ole Miss, Jaxson Dart left an impressive resume. He led Ole Miss to a victory in the 2023 Peach Bowl against Penn State. Dart overcame this tough challenge against one of the nation’s top defenses and eventual 3rd overall NFL draft pick Abdul Carter.
Over his career at Ole Miss, Dart started 38 games, leading his team to consecutive 10-win seasons. Further, he surpassed Eli Manning’s school record in passing yards with 11,970. His impressive stats undoubtedly cemented his legacy in the Ole Miss program.
Measuring in at 6’2”-1/4, weighing in at 223 lbs with a 30 inch armspan, Dart showcased his near perfect physical attributes at the NFL Combine. His previously mentioned stats formed the basis of his perfect 100/100 grade in the Star-Predictor Score (SPS), which was only waiting on the draft to finalize the formula on Dart’s analytical profile. Even if Dart fell to round 3 in the draft, he would’ve been close to a 100 SPS. After the New York Giants traded up to select Dart with the 25th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, it was confirmed: Dart achieved an unprecedented SPS grade of 100. This set a new benchmark that surpassed even established legends like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen:
In case you’re unfamiliar with the SPS; The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) was built as a prospect scouting tool aimed at maximizing investment potential while minimizing risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. The all-time SPS can be found here, or by clicking on the image below:
There are many comparisons that can be made between Josh Allen and Jaxson Dart. Mainly, their raw abilities coming out of college, all while having sky-high potential. The justified concerns for Dart include not throwing with good timing, issues with his throwing motion, and not yet having shown he can independently run an offense or read a defense. While Dart’s raw talent invites comparisons, he is less raw than Allen was upon entry to the NFL. Further, The Giants’ faith in Dart’s development is bolstered by the presence of Brian Daboll, the coach who played a pivotal role in Josh Allen’s development into a top-tier quarterback. If you want anyone to develop Dart, it’s Daboll. He successfully transformed Josh Allen into a top quarterback despite the pressure of an entire fanbase.
As far as the concern regarding Dart never having shown the ability to run an offense, Lane Kiffin typically controls every aspect of his offenses. Therefore, it’s unfair to claim Dart can’t run an offense; he just hasn’t had the opportunity yet. It’s like leading a horse to water – you can’t make it drink. Similarly, you can instruct a QB on how to execute a D1 offense, but you can’t do it for them, which Dart has done.
Jaxson Dart’s collegiate track record, unprecedented SPS, and promising start in the NFL is a reason for optimism. Given Brian Daboll’s track record in developing quarterbacks, there should be mounting anticipation for Dart’s maturation and success in the league. With the right guidance and development, Dart has the opportunity to become the cornerstone of the Giants’ for the next decade.
When the dust settles on prospects who end up being great, it’s easy to forget how they weren’t the perfect prospect. Patrick Mahomes couldn’t read defenses until halfway through his second year and said himself “I was just playing.” Mahomes also had footwork issues which was compared to Kenny Pickett and Zach Wilson. Lamar Jackson’s extremely concerning college completion percentage led to his most persistent weakness of accuracy issues in the NFL. Then, there’s Josh Allen. Point being: when you have raw talent and an extremely high SPS, all you need is a little patience.
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