Linebacker RAS: Does It Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis

In Part 38 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked to solve the question of whether a Linebacker’s Relative Athletic Score (RAS) can predict their success in the NFL. After running the numbers, we found an optimal range, tested our data for statistical significance, and applied our optimal range against the 2024 NFL Rookie LB class. Here are all of our findings:

What Is RAS?

Relative Athletic Score (RAS) is a metric used to evaluate the athleticism of NFL prospects based on their performances in Combine and Pro Day drills. Developed by Kent Lee Platte in 2013, RAS takes various physical attributes such as speed, agility, explosiveness, and size to normalize them on a scale from 0 to 10. The results are then color-coded to provide a quick visual comparison of a player’s athletic traits relative to other players of the same position. This system helps teams and analysts quickly assess the athletic potential of prospects. Us at BrainyBallers have used RAS religiously in evaluating talents.

Methodology

Our analysis focused on the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003. We concentrated particularly on two different groups within that top 50: the top 10 finishers and the “bottom 10,” defined as those finishing from 41st to 50th each season.

Why the top 50? Choosing the top 50 allowed us to maintain a “happy medium.” Including finishers beyond this threshold would risk skewing the data with players who are fringe roster players and naturally won’t score top 10. Conversely, comparing the top 10 to a number which includes the 11th place finisher, or a number close to that, does not satisfy our itch for finding trends.

LB RAS Averages Chart

To begin, we created our averages charts for various finisher groups: Top 5, Top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th place finishers. Contrary to some expectations, this averages chart didn’t reveal a clear trend linking RAS scores to top-tier performances. Interestingly, 13 out of 21 seasons (61.9%), the Top 5 finishers often had the same, or even lower, RAS compared to finishers from 31st-50th place. This trend was the beginning of us doubting RAS as a predictor for Fantasy Football success.

Segmented Top & Bottom 10 Finishers Since 2003

We examined the top 10 finishers since 2003 and segmented their RAS scores into 0.1 RAS increments. This analysis revealed a slightly different story than the averages chart – a tendency for higher RAS scores to cluster more densely within the top 10 chart. This appears to be due to more top 10 finishers finishing under 5.0RAS than the bottom 10, which is not displayed on this chart.

LB RAS Differences Chart

To find an applicable range or threshold, we developed a differences chart. This chart compared each RAS, and added the next 0.5 RAS increment, while subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the desired consistent top level performances we are hoping for. From this, it appears as though 8.9 RAS and higher is a promising threshold. We next will attempt to verify this as the top producing range, or find another.

Verifying the Optimal LB RAS Range

To verify this is the highest producing optimal range, we made adjustments to this range within our spreadsheet to attempt to find a higher producing one. This effort revealed that a RAS score of 9.2 and above produced a 9.8% increased presence in the top 10 leaderboards when compared to the bottom 10. This range will be our optimal range for LB RAS and will be the subject of this research going forward.

Establishing the Critical RAS Threshold for Linebackers

To find the critical threshold where the minimum RAS’s occurred in different finisher categories, we looked at the top 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 finishers since 2003. Those findings are seen below:

• Top 10 Min: 2.6 RAS
• Top 20 Min: 1.7 RAS
• Top 30 Min: 1.7 RAS
• Top 40 Min: 0.2 RAS
• Top 50 Min: 0.2 RAS

This established that a RAS of 1.7 is a critical threshold for linebackers in our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will aim to forecast potential successes and busts. Essentially, Linebackers must have at least a 1.7 RAS in order to not be considered a future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2027 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:

LB RAS Pearson Value

Standard statistical methods yielded a Pearson value of 0.016, demonstrating no significant correlation between a linebacker’s RAS and fantasy production. For meaningful insights, a Pearson value exceeding 0.1 or below -0.1 is desired when analyzing world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.

Decadal Differences

By applying our optimal range to all athletes across the last two decades, we were able to see whether this is a growing or dying trend. Our analysis revealed an increasing significance of this optimal range in the most recent decade, showing it may possibly be growing in importance.

Application to Rookie LB NFL Class

We now turn our attention to the 2024 Rookie Linebacker class to see how it fits into the identified optimal RAS range. That breakdown can be seen below:

2024 NFL Rookies in our optimal range (9.2 and above):

2024 NFL Rookies out of our optimal range:

2024 NFL Rookies with no RAS:

Conclusion

From this study, we’ve identified an optimal RAS range that occurred more frequently among the top 10 performers compared to the bottom 10. Further, we found 10 rookie Linebackers had a RAS within this optimal RAS range. Although, the Pearson value came back as extremely underwhelming. Therefore, these results can be taken with a grain of salt, and we are recommending to not use RAS alone for Linebacker scouting. If you still believe in it, the RAS optimal range is 9.2 and above RAS.

More Data Next Week!

Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 39 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Wide Receiver’s Best College Season Yardage: Does it matter? If so, what’s the yardage threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!

Key Stats Every NFL Scout Should Know, Ranked

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