For the 12th part of our “Saturday Script” series, we ventured into the the numbers to see if Relative Athletic Score (RAS) can be used to forecast NFL running back success. Excitingly, our deep dive into the data has uncovered a threshold that has a higher likelihood of increased performance. Further, we found 3 rookie running backs with a RAS that is lower than any top 10 player’s RAS since at least 2003. Therefore, 3 running backs who we are avoiding at all costs.
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What Is RAS?
Relative Athletic Score (RAS) is a metric used to evaluate the athleticism of NFL prospects based on their performances in Combine and Pro Day drills. Developed by Kent Lee Platte in 2013, RAS takes various physical attributes such as speed, agility, explosiveness, and size to normalize them on a scale from 0 to 10. The results are then color-coded to provide a quick visual comparison of a player’s athletic traits relative to other players of the same position. This system helps teams and analysts quickly assess the athletic potential of prospects. Us at BrainyBallers have used RAS religiously in evaluating talents.
Methodology: Crunching the Numbers
We scrutinized the top 50 fantasy football finishers each season since 2003, exclusively using NFL draft combine data for consistency. For easier visualization, we simplified our charts by rounding each RAS score to the nearest 0.1. PPR fantasy scores was the format used for leaderboards due to its popularity. Here’s a breakdown of our initial process:
- Averages Chart: We calculated the average RAS scores for various finisher brackets: top 1, top 5, top 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th for each season. These findings revealed that the top 5 finishers boasted higher RAS scores compared to the 31-50th place finishers in 18 out of 21 seasons (85.7%). This was the beginning of the verification that higher RAS’s typically produces higher fantasy scores.
- Incremental Segmentation: We segmented the top 10 finishers’ RAS scores into increments of 0.1 (rounded) to facilitate comparing against the bottom 10 finishers. Those charts can be seen below:
- Differences Chart: To pinpoint performance-critical RAS thresholds, we created a differences chart which subtracts bottom 10 results from top 10 results. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate consistent top level performance and not just the one-hit wonders of the league. Further, this chart considers the next 0.30 higher RAS in the calculation, which helps find the range. As you can see, the data was overwhelmingly positive when RAS scores exceeded 7.6.
An Average RB RAS, Or An Average Top Performing RB RAS?
To further understand the Relative Athletic Score threshold’s impact on NFL Running Back success, we began by analyzing the RAS scores of RBs who finished in the bottom 10 in fantasy points between 2003-2023. Among 184 RBs, 93 scored at or above a RAS of 7.6, which equates to 50.5%. This provided our baseline for comparing the effectiveness of this threshold against top-performing RBs. If more than 50.5% occurred in the top 10, then we found an average top 10 RB’s RAS and not just an average NFL Running Back’s RAS. The results were astounding.. Out of 183 top 10 finishers during this timeframe, 135 had RAS scores at or above 7.6, accounting for 73.8%. This is a 23.3% increase from the bottom 10! Last week we found a 24.3% increase when looking at 40 times which was our largest RB finding yet, therefore this closely challenged that as our top RB findings.
Examining RB Trends Over Decades
We wanted to lay the numbers out across the last two decades so we can see if this is a recent trend or not. The results revealed this is indeed more of a recent trend. As you can see, from 2014-2023 there is a much larger increase from the bottom 10 to the top 10 than what is seen in the earlier decade.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 84 | 230 | 78 |
| All at or below 7.6 | 63 | 144 | 50 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 75.0% | 62.6% | 64.1% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 93 | 282 | 99 |
| All at or below 7.6 | 67 | 135 | 37 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 72.0% | 47.9% | 37.4% |
Regression Analysis: Strong Correlation with a Caveat
Our regression testing further initially showed a strong correlation between Relative Athletic Score and fantasy points, then the R^2 value reduced that excitement. Here are the results:
- P Value: 0.000393758
- R-Squared Value: 0.015363
As far as the P-Value, this confirms a significant correlation between RAS and fantasy points (anything below 0.05 indicates strong correlation). However, it’s important to approach this with cautious optimism due to having a R-Squared value this low. This shows RAS is a small piece of the puzzle when trying to predict success. Essentially, this shows that RAS is 1.5% of the reasoning behind fantasy production. 98.5% of fantasy production can be explained by other factors.
2024 Rookie RBs
We applied our NFL Running Backs RAS threshold to the incoming class. 12 rookies scored at or above our 7.6 threshold. Further, we noticed that the lowest RAS in the top 10 since 2003 was 2.3. We identified 3 rookie RB’s in the 2024 class who scored lower than a 2.3, which is apparently the critical threshold.
Higher than or at 7.6
- Kendall Milton (8.1)
- Isaiah Davis (8.9)
- Dylan Laube (8.8)
- Blake Corum (8.3)
- George Holani (8.4)
- Tyrone Tracy (9.8)
- Kimani Vidal (8.9)
- MarShawn Lloyd (8.6)
- Trey Benson (9.8)
- Jaylen Wright (9.8)
- Will Shipley (9.6)
- Sione Vaki (7.9)
- Isaac Guerrendo (9.9)
Lower than 7.6
- Jawhar Jordan (4.6)
- Michael Wiley (7.2)
- Jaden Shirden (6.3)
- Keilan Robinson (7.3)
- Audric Estime (6.6)
- Dillon Johnson (6.8)
- Cody Schrader (2.3)
- Emani Bailey (2.3)
Lower than 2.3 (top 10 hasnt been lower than 2.3 since at least 2003)
- Frank Gore Jr. (0.6)
- Bucky Irving (2.2)
- Daijun Edwards (1.9)
No RAS:
- Jonathan Brooks
- Ray Davis
- Rasheed Ali
- Braelon Allen
- Jase McClellan
- Miyan Williams
Conclusion: A Path Forward
Part 12 for The Saturday Script has yielded a key insight: a NFL Running Backs Relative Athletic Score of 7.6 or higher occurs at a 23.3% higher rate than in the bottom 10. 2.3 RAS is the critical threshold. For standard statistical analysis, the P-value showed a strong trend, although this should be taken with a grain of salt as the R-Squared value was low. As we continue our research on our way to try to develop a model that predicts NFL success, a RAS of 7.6 is a minimum value we will be utilizing.
More Data Next Week!
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics, and this latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday We will dive deep into the most intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis similar to this. We thrive on curiosity and welcome your input — so please, leave comments or reach out to us with topics you’re eager to see dissected next. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 13 of The Saturday Script is our next examination of NFL WR’s: Does BMI matter? If so, what’s the BMI threshold necessary for success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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