Can Overall Draft Capital Predict A Quarterbacks’ NFL Success?
04/05/2025
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For part 52 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into whether a Quarterback’s NFL success can be predicted by their
In part 48 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into Quarterback college completion percentages to see if it can predict their NFL success. We had great results with standard statistical methods and applied our optimal range to the 2024 and 2025 NFL Draft class. Here’s everything that our number-crunching prevailed:
Our study focused on the top 30 fantasy football finishers each season since 2003. The data came from College Football Reference, and we only used the career completion percentage, not the top or senior season. Further, we excluded rookie seasons to not include quarterbacks before they typically mature.
To set the stage, you will see the term “bottom 10” throughout this study. This is used to describe fantasy finishers ranked 21st to 30th each season.
To understand any obvious patterns, we created an averages chart for quarterbacks based on their fantasy finishes. From this, we noticed that In 17 out of 21 seasons (80.9%), top 5 finishers had higher average college completion percentages compared to the 20th-30th place finishers. From this, it started becoming obvious that higher college completion percentages probably led to better fantasy scores.
Next, we charted the top and bottom 10 finishers since 2003 and segmented them into 0.1 increments. This segmentation further showcased the apparent correlation that quarterbacks with higher college completion rates often had higher fantasy football success. Those charts can be seen below, where you can compare the weight of both, with the top 10 coming first:
To pinpoint an optimal range where higher fantasy football finishes occurred at, we first constructed a differences chart. This involved comparing each college completion percentage with the subsequent 1.0% increment, subtracting the bottom 10 performance results from the top 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. From this analysis, a clear pattern emerged: quarterbacks with a completion percentage of 60.9% and above stood out as the probable top performers. We next will attempt to verify that threshold.
Our next step was refining this range to ensure it represented the highest performing threshold. Through adjustments, we altered this threshold to a slightly broader completion percentage of 60.7% and above. This threshold resulted in a 37.4% higher appearance rate in the top 10 compared to the bottom 10. Therefore, this range will serve as the basis of this study moving forward, and will be our optimal range for QB College Completion Percentages.
We next wanted to find the bare minimum completion percentage seen amongst the top 30 fantasy finishers since 2003. To do this, we split the top 30 into 3 different categories: top 10, 20, and 30. From our findings, a critical threshold emerged for quarterbacks’ StarPredictor Score (SPS):
Due to these, 50.7% will serve as our critical threshold when we create the StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will attempt to predict quarterback successes and potential busts. Essentially, Quarterbacks must have at least a 50.7% College career completion percentage to not be considered a surefire future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2026 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:
Utilizing standard statistical methods, we looked to see if there was statistical significance between college completion percentages and NFL fantasy football points. The Pearson value can be seen below:
This value shows strong correlation between a quarterback’s college career completion percentage and their fantasy production. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 while studying world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value. This comparison means these stats have very similar significance, just in opposite ways (lower draft capital is better, whereas higher completion percentages are better).
Understanding trends over time can provide more valuable insights. By applying our optimal range over the last two decades, we observed that our identified optimal range, though on a decline, remained a relevant indicator of success for quarterbacks. That can be seen in our chart below, where the blue numbers show the bottom 5 and top 5 prevalence of our optimal range for each decade:
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 5 | 6 through 24 | Bottom 5 | |
| All count | 49 | 183 | 47 |
| All 60.7 and above | 38 | 81 | 13 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 77.6% | 44.3% | 27.7% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 5 | 6 through 24 | Bottom 5 | |
| All count | 50 | 195 | 46 |
| All 60.7 and above | 41 | 151 | 26 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 82.0% | 77.4% | 56.5% |
We next were curious about how the recent and upcoming NFL draft class talents align with our threshold. Therefore, we looked at the 2024 class and included the projected 2025 Rookie QB NFL class, breaking it down into players who fell within our optimal range and those who fell out of it.
| Shadeur Sanders | 71.8% |
| Spencer Rattler | 68.5% |
| Carson Beck | 68.2% |
| J.J. McCarthy | 67.6% |
| Kurtis Rourke | 67.2% |
| Caleb Williams | 66.9% |
| Bo Nix | 66.4% |
| Jayden Daniels | 66.3% |
| Cam Ward | 66.1% |
| Quinn Ewers | 65.3% |
| Dillon Gabriel | 65.0% |
| Jalen Milroe | 65.0% |
| Drake Maye | 64.9% |
| Drew Allar | 64.3% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 63.3% |
| Garrett Nussmeier | 62.2% |
| Jordan Travis | 62.0% |
| Joe Milton | 61.6% |
| Michael Pratt | 60.6% |
| Devin Leary | 59.1% |
Our analysis found a significant link between college completion percentages and NFL quarterback success. Our study identified a threshold of 60.7% and above for college completion percentages, with higher ones being a reliable predictor of NFL quarterback success. This stat will no doubt serve as a foundation for the StarPredictor Score (SPS).
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Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 49 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Quarterback ADOT: Does it matter? If so, what’s the ADOT threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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