For the 47th installment of the “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into quarterback college sack rates. The objective was to see if sack rate percentages were consistently predictive of either high or low fantasy finishes. From this research, we found an optimal sack percentage range that occurred at a higher rate, and applied it to the 2024 NFL Draft class. Here are all of our findings:
Our research focused on the top 30 fantasy football finishers since 2003, utilizing PPR (Points Per Reception) scores as the league scoring system. Throughout this study, you will see the term “bottom 10”, which refers to those ranked 21st to 30th each season.
To begin our research, we constructed an averages chart which analyzes quarterbacks who finished in the top 5, top 10, 11th-20th, and 21st-30th place in fantasy leagues since 2003. This approach yielded little insights as we struggled to identify trends in sack rate percentages amongst these groups when compared to each other.
To dive deeper into this analysis, we segmented the sack rate percentages of top and bottom 10 fantasy finishers into 0.1 increments. This was an attempt to see if one of the charts had an obvious weight difference between each other. Although, this data did not prevail any obvious differences. Those charts can be seen below, with the top 10 coming first:
Our main goal was to pinpoint a range where notable performance increases occur in the NFL. To do this, we developed a differences chart. This chart compares each sack rate percentage, plus the next 1.0%, by subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. From this analysis, we discovered that a sack rate of 6.9% and below consistently appeared to be a top-performing range, bringing us closer to understanding the potential optimal range for this stat, which we will attempt to verify next.
The next step involved some number-crunching. We made adjustments in our spreadsheet to help identify the most productive sack rate range. Through testing various numbers near the range identified by our differences chart, we concluded that altering this range to 2.4% to 6.5% produced a 17.3% higher top 10 appearance rate compared to the bottom 10. Therefore, this range will serve as the basis of this study moving forward, and will be our optimal range for QB College sack rates.
We further broke down the top 30 fantasy finishers since 2003 into top 10, top 20, and top 30 segments to see what the maximum college sack rates were for each QB in each threshold. Those results can be seen below:
Due to these, 8.4% will serve as our critical threshold when we create the StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will attempt to predict quarterback successes and potential busts. Essentially, Quarterbacks must have at most a. 8.7% College sack rate to not be considered a surefire future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2026 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:
Utilizing standard statistical methods prevailed no significant findings:
This value shows no strong correlation between a quarterback’s college sack rate and their fantasy production. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 while studying world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.
Our focus now shifts to assessing how the 2024 rookie QB NFL class aligned with this optimal sack rate range. We broke it down into Quarterbacks who fell within our optimal range and those who fell outside of it below:
| Bo Nix | 2.6% |
| J.J. McCarthy | 4.0% |
| Devin Leary | 5.3% |
| Joe Milton | 5.5% |
| Jordan Travis | 6.2% |
| Drake Maye | 6.3% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 1.8% |
| Caleb Williams | 6.6% |
| Spencer Rattler | 6.6% |
| Jayden Daniels | 7.2% |
| Michael Pratt | 7.7% |
While our study identified a specific percentage that appeared far more frequently within the top 10 fantasy finishers compared to the bottom 10, it is crucial to acknowledge the lack of statistical correlation when using standard methods. College sack rates may provide some insight into a quarterback’s potential success, but they are not singularly predictive. If you use this to evaluate Quarterbacks, look for Quarterbacks with a college sack rate between 2.4% to 6.5%.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 48 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Quarterback college completion percentage: Does it matter? If so, what’s the completion percentage threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
What metric matters the most when scouting a rookie Running Back? What threshold should Running Backs achieve within that metric to be considered an elite prospect? How much should you value that stat above all other stats? Couldn't do it? Rest easy, we have it handled for you. That's what this chart answers. Type in your desired position in the "Position" field to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Then, filter the success boost or Pearson value from highest to lowest to see which stats mean the most. Pearson values of 0.1 and higher OR -0.1 or lower indicates correlation. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.99/month! Cancel anytime.
Support these analytics and unlock our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, where all of our research comes together in one table for all positions. 7 day free trial. Cancel anytime.
BrainyBallers Buy-Hold-Sell Chart (All Players)
Make Money on BrainyBallers’ (Or anyone’s) content if it turns out to be incorrect!
Get Your Products 100% Refunded By Predicting The Next SuperBowl Winner!
In part 48 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into Quarterback college completion percentages to see if it can predict
For part 46 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we investigated whether a Running Back’s college yards per carry (YPC) can predict
In the 45th Part of our “Does It Matter?” series, we dove into the statistical relationship between a wide receiver’s college yards
