For part 46 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we investigated whether a Running Back’s college yards per carry (YPC) can predict their NFL success. We found an optimal range where an increased rate in the top 10 occurs and applied standard statistical methods. Here are all of our findings:
We gathered data on the top 50 Fantasy Football PPR (points per reception) standings since 2003. Within this article, you will see the term “bottom 10”, which is defined as those ranking 41st to 50th in fantasy points each season.
Why the top 50? We opted to examine the top 50 finishers to strike a “happy medium.” Analyzing further down the leaderboard would include fringe roster players unlikely to finish in the top 10, potentially just skewing the data. On the other hand, we wanted to compare the best to the worst, therefore we went down to the 41st-50th place finishers to achieve this.
To begin understanding the connection between college YPC and NFL performance, we looked to our averages chart which compares the top 5, top 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th place finishers each season. A slight trend emerged: in 14 out of 21 seasons (66.7%), the college YPC averages of the top 5 finishers were equal to, or higher, than those in the 31st-50th range. This suggested a potential correlation between higher college YPC and elevated NFL fantasy success.
Further, we segmented the data of top and bottom 10 performers since 2003 into 0.1 increments. This revealed a clear weight towards higher YPC more frequently resulting within the top 10 finishers. This concentration of higher YPC in the top 10 reinforced the hypothesis that higher college YPC often prevails higher NFL success. Those two charts can be seen below, with the top 10 coming first:
Our primary objective was to identify a YPC range or threshold that maximizes performance gains. We wanted to do this while also maintaining consistent player appearances in the top 10. In other words, trying to not count the one-hit wonders of the league. To do this, we created our differences chart, which compares each YPC increment, plus the next 0.5 YPC, subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. From this, A possible optimal range stood out which was 5.8 YPC and above. We next will attempt to verify this as the top producing range.
With these findings, we now wanted to sharpen the College YPC optimal range. By testing various numbers adjacent to our possible optimal range, we discovered that a threshold of 6.0 YPC and above significantly boosts top 10 appearances—14.1% higher than all bottom 10 players. Therefore, this optimal range will be the subject of our research going forward.
To find our critical threshold, we looked to find the minimum College YPC seen in the top 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 Fantasy finishers since 2003. Those findings are seen below:
| Category | Minimum YPC |
|---|---|
| Top 10 | 4.0 |
| Top 20 | 4.0 |
| Top 30 | 4.0 |
| Top 40 | 4.0 |
| Top 50 | 4.0 |
Due to this, 4.0 YPC is our critical threshold for RB College YPC’s. This will be for our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will be aimed at predicting potential stars and busts. Essentially, Running Backs must have at least a 4.0 College YPC to not be considered a surefire future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2026 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:
We next employed standard statistical methods, which revealed the following results:
These findings reveal no strong correlation between college YPC and fantasy production while strictly using statistical standards. Although, we noticed that from 2012 onward there was correlation, as seen above as well. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 while studying world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.
To identify timely trends, we compared our YPC optimal range across the last two decades, examining the top 10, 11-40th, and bottom 10 finishers. The data shows that the 6.0 and above YPC threshold is a growing trend, reinforcing its significance.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 94 | 275 | 95 |
| All 6 and above YPC | 17 | 59 | 15 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 18.1% | 21.5% | 15.8% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 96 | 281 | 92 |
| All 6 and above YPC | 59 | 116 | 34 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 61.5% | 41.3% | 37.0% |
Lastly, we applied our optimal range to the 2024 NFL Draft class. This could help identify future stars, which it has appeared to do so already. Namely, Audric Estime and Jaylin Wright appear to be two names worth targeting due to their underrated prices still at this point.
| Isaac Guerendo | 6 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 6.5 |
| Audric Estime | 6.2 |
| Bucky Irving | 6.2 |
| Jaylen Wright | 6.2 |
| Trey Benson | 6.1 |
| Jonathan Brooks | 6.2 |
| Dylan Laube | 5.1 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 5.8 |
| Jase McClellan | 5.6 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5.1 |
| Rasheen Ali | 5.5 |
| Braelon Allen | 5.9 |
| Ray Davis | 4.9 |
| Will Shipley | 5.2 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 5.2 |
| Blake Corum | 5.5 |
Our analysis revealed a trend where higher college YPC predicts better NFL success. While scouting college prospects, you should hope for a 6.0 and above YPC. While college YPC can be a promising metric, it’s best to be viewed as a small piece of the predictive puzzle rather than an absolute indicator. It will hold weight in our SPS model, but not a majority amount of it.
What metric matters the most when scouting a rookie Running Back? What threshold should Running Backs achieve within that metric to be considered an elite prospect? How much should you value that stat above all other stats? Couldn't do it? Rest easy, we have it handled for you. That's what this chart answers. Sort by importance and/or filter by position. Unlock by signing up with the links provided. $9.99 For LIFETIME access!
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 47 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Quarterback college sack rate: Does it matter? If so, what’s the sack rate threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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