SPS Value Flips
SPS Value Flips

Star-Predictor Score (SPS) Rookie Value Flips Guide

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In Dynasty Fantasy Football, Finding late-round value risers can be significant to ensuring long term success. Leveraging the Star-Predictor Score (SPS) Value Flip formula helps spot these potential gems by identifying players with a probable value increase. Numerous viewers have requested insights on mid to late-round players, as the SPS primarily focuses on rounds 2 to 3, depending on the position. While there is a valid reason for that practice, we noticed when there’s a difference between SPS and draft rankings – when a player’s SPS ranking is higher than their draft ranking – in later rounds, these players typically increase in value. This observation formed the basis of this rookie value flip guide.

Qualifying Players and Their KTC Value Changes

Players on the SPS Value Flip list have shown a significant positive change in their KeepTradeCut (KTC) value. If a player isn’t on the list, they simply didn’t meet the necessary criteria. Therefore, we aren’t saying others outside this list will not increase in value, just that they didn’t qualify for this list. Further, this is for flipping assets for a profit, not necessarily for finding starters. Most late-round sleepers never ascend to a high enough production level to qualify as starters.

What Is It?

The SPS Value Flip formula is an offshoot of the broader Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model, which was built as a prospect scouting tool aimed at maximizing investment potential while minimizing risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. The Value Flip formula identifies and targets players beyond the top prospects, recognizing their potential hidden value. Some underlying reason justifies drafting these players higher. The public will eventually recognize this discrepancy, leading to an upward trajectory in the player’s value.

Track Record of Success

The SPS Value Flip formula has recently identified players like Bucky Irving and DeVon Achane, who have seen significant value increases. What you will see in the table is all the players who qualify for the formula since 2017. You’ll see players’ draft day KeepTradeCut values alongside their career peaks in KTC value. Green highlights players flipped for profit, while red marks those who decreased in value. Any grey player is either due to being drafted before KTC player values originated (2020), or due to being a rookie this season. For transparency, we assumed Donnel Pumphrey’s value should be in the red, even though he was drafted before 2020. Below this paragraph, you will see the average player increase. This is possibly the most insightful aspect, as it can help guide you when to sell these players. Without further ado, here are the averaged and the table, which will be updated annually with new rookies and refreshed values:

Current average KTC value profit/loss from all known values: +2,567

SPS Value Flips

wdt_ID wdt_created_by wdt_created_at wdt_last_edited_by wdt_last_edited_at Name College Draft Draft Value (KTC) Peak Value (KTC) Value Gain (KTC)
1 zachr08 05-01-25 05:43 PM zachr08 05-01-25 05:43 PM RJ Harvey UCF 2025 2223 N/A 0
2 zachr08 05-01-25 05:43 PM zachr08 05-01-25 05:43 PM DJ Giddens Kansas State 2025 2047 N/A 0
3 zachr08 05-01-25 05:43 PM zachr08 05-01-25 05:43 PM Brashard Smith SMU 2025 720 N/A 0
4 zachr08 05-01-25 05:43 PM zachr08 05-01-25 05:43 PM Quinshon Judkins Ohio State 2025 4757 N/A 0
5 Braelon Allen Wisconsin 2024 2625 4011 1,386
6 Bucky Irving Oregon 2024 1780 5590 3,810
7 De'Von Achane Texas A&M 2023 2881 7571 4,690
8 Rachaad White Arizona State 2022 2340 4689 2,349
9 Pierre Strong South Dakota State 2022 1076 1707 631
10 Brian Robinson Jr. Alabama 2022 1825 4652 2,827
11 Chuba Hubbard Oklahoma State 2021 3251 4423 1,172
12 Kenneth Gainwell Memphis 2021 3640 3428 -212
13 AJ Dillon Boston College 2020 1278 5313 4,035
14 J.K. Dobbins Ohio State 2020 6244 7424 1,180
15 zachr08 05-01-25 05:55 PM zachr08 05-01-25 05:55 PM Antonio Gibson Memphis 2020 489 7116 6,627
16 Justice Hill Oklahoma State 2019 Unknown Unknown 0
17 David Montgomery Iowa State 2019 Unknown Unknown 0
18 Devin Singletary Florida Atlantic 2019 Unknown Unknown 0
19 Derrius Guice LSU 2018 Unknown Unknown 0
20 Nick Chubb Georgia 2018 Unknown Unknown 0
21 zachr08 05-01-25 05:41 PM zachr08 05-01-25 05:41 PM Donnel Pumphrey San Diego State 2017 Unknown Unknown -1
22 zachr08 05-01-25 05:35 PM zachr08 05-01-25 05:35 PM Joe Mixon Oklahoma 2017 Unknown Unknown 0

Conclusion

The SPS Value Flip formula is transforming our draft strategy. By understanding and applying this insight, managers can more reliably and consistently identify late-round value risers. This approach results in greater long-term success in keeper leagues by consistently enhancing team asset value.

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