2026 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft 1.0
02/10/2026
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As the 2026 NFL Draft approaches, we are gearing up with our first rookie fantasy football mock draft. In this draft, we
For our 96-part “Does It Matter?” series, we next wanted to figure out whether a Tight End’s highest single-season college first down season total can help predict their NFL fantasy football points or not. Further, we wanted to know the desired optimal range if it does help and how much weight this metric carries in predicting NFL success. Here are our findings:
To structure our study, we analyzed the top 50 PPR fantasy finishers at the Tight End position for every season since 2015. Each prospect’s top 1st downs season was sourced from PFF.
Why the top 50? We were targeting a “happy medium” in our data set. If we expanded the search to the top 100, the data would be heavily skewed by fringe roster players who never had a realistic path to elite production. Conversely, we needed a large enough gap to compare the “best” to the “worst.” By focusing on the Top 10 versus the “Bottom 10” (those finishing 41st–50th), we created a clear contrast between elite starters and replacement-level players.
Our first step was to create an averages chart which segments finishers into three tiers: the Top 10, the 11th–30th range, and the 31st–50th range (since 2018). Initially, the results were not clear. There was no immediate, linear trend suggesting that a higher college first-down season automatically resulted in a higher NFL fantasy finishes. However, a slight lean did appear: in 66.7% of the seasons studied (4 out of 6), the Top 5 finishers possessed higher college first-down peak seasons than those in the 31st–50th range. While this hinted at a connection, it wasn’t yet the “smoking gun” we were looking for.
To dig deeper, we charted every Top 10 finisher since 2015 and segmented them into buckets rounded to the nearest whole first down. When comparing the weight and distribution of these buckets against the lower-tier finishers, the correlation appeared to lean towards higher peak first-down college seasons correlating more with top 10 finishes than bottom 10. You can compare the weight and distribution of both these charts, where you will see the top 10 first:
To find an optimal range that signals consistent top-level performance rather than one-off “outlier” seasons, we developed a “Differences Chart.” This chart compares each player’s top first-down season, plus a rolling window of the next 3.0 while subtracting the Bottom 10 results from the Top 10 within that group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). From this, a clear range began to surface: players with 29 or more first downs in their peak college season showed a higher likelihood of becoming top performers in the NFL than the bottom. We will next test this threshold and adjust if needed.
After identifying the initial range, we performed iterative “number crunching” to fine-tune the threshold. By testing various benchmarks near our findings, we discovered that adjusting the requirement to 30 or more first downs yielded the most significant results. Specifically, this “30+” range produces a 27.6% higher Top 10 appearance rate compared to the Bottom 10. For fantasy managers, this is the optimal range to look for in prospects and will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, Top 1st Down Seasons could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL – some of which are proprietary to BrainyBallers – providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
Don’t just draft for this year. Gain the knowledge needed to position yourself to secure your future with SPS rookie data.
To ensure our findings weren’t just a result of confirmation bias, we applied standard statistical methods to the entire dataset.
This value demonstrates a strong correlation between a Tight End’s top first-down college season and their future fantasy production. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when studying world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value – meaning earlier drafted QB’s perform better.
These findings suggest that while the metric might not tell you exactly how many points a player will score, it acts as a vital “threshold filter.” If a player falls within this ideal benchmark of 30+, their probability of reaching a Top 10 increases compared to those falling outside it. If you are banking on a player who never reached the 30+ mark, you are betting against nearly a decade of historical trends. Of course it is not the end-all be-all, but it can be used as a helpful tiebreaker to decide between two players.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 97 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Shuttle Times: Do They Matter? If so, what’s the Shuttle Time threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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