2026 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft 1.0
02/10/2026
No Comments
As the 2026 NFL Draft approaches, we are gearing up with our first rookie fantasy football mock draft. In this draft, we
In part 92 of our “Does It Matter?” series we crunched the numbers to determine if a Tight End’s Agility Score (as defined by PlayerProfiler) can help predict future fantasy football success. If it can, how important is it and what is the ideal benchmark we should be looking for? Here are all of our findings.
To ensure our study was structured correctly, we analyzed the top 50 fantasy football finishers (PPR) since 2005 – which is when the first Agility Scores are available on PlayerProfiler for anyone in the top 50 fantasy finishers. For the purpose of this study, we established two distinct groups to create a contrast:
Why the top 50? You might wonder why we stopped at 50. The goal was to find a “happy medium” between statistical significance and practical relevance. Expanding the data set beyond the top 50 introduces fringe roster players who would only skew the data. However, to truly identify what makes a player elite, we needed a control group that differed significantly from the top tier. Isolating the 41st through 50th place finishers allowed us to compare the best of the best against the bare minimum of fantasy relevance to truly see the difference in data points.
To begin our study, we created an averages chart comparing the Top 10, the 11th-30th, and the 31st-50th place finishers since 2005. From this, a slight trend emerged: Lower Agility Scores correlated with higher fantasy scores. It is important to note that a lower Agility Score indicates a faster time, and therefore better agility. Specifically, in 12 out of the 15 seasons analyzed (80%), the Top 5 fantasy finishers possessed lower (better) Agility Scores than the players finishing in the 31st-50th range. This suggests that at the very top of the food chain, elite fluidity and change-of-direction skills are common traits.
To dig deeper, we segmented the Top 10 finishers since 2005 into rounded 0.1 Agility Score buckets. From this, no trend could be seen as the weight and distribution of both charts is very similar. Both of those charts can be seen next, with the top 10 coming first:
Our ultimate goal was to find an applicable threshold that historically signals top-level consistency while minimizing the appearance of unique outlier players. Essentially, we want to identify an optimal range where consistent top-performers live. To do this, we created a Differences Chart. This chart compares each Agility Score (plus the next 0.3 increment) and subtracts the “Bottom 10” results from the “Top 10” results within that specific group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). From this chart, it appeared that 10.9 and below could be a possible top-performing range, getting us closer to a definitive optimal range.
Next, we made range adjustments in our spreadsheet to ensure we identified the absolute highest-producing range. After testing various numbers close to the range our differences chart initially highlighted, we found that expanding the threshold to 11.6 and below produces a 17.8% higher Top 10 appearance rate than in the Bottom 10. Therefore, 11.6 and below is the optimal range you should hope for in your favorite athletes and will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, Agility Scores could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
Don’t just draft for this year. Gain the knowledge needed to position yourself to secure your future with SPS rookie data.
To verify our findings, we applied standard statistical analysis to test the correlation strength.
In the context of football analytics and fantasy projection, this value demonstrates a strong correlation between Agility Scores and future fantasy production. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when studying world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
So, does it matter? Yes it does. The data confirms that agility is a relevant predictor of success. The 80% rate at which Top 5 TEs beat out lower-tier TEs in agility metrics is a strong signal that non-athletic tight ends rarely reach the fantasy ceiling we chase. When deciding between two players, favoring the one with the better (lower) Agility Score is the statistically safer bet, provided they fall within that optimal range we identified of 11.6 Agility Score and below.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 93 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Speed Scores: Do They Matter? If so, what’s the Speed Score threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
BrainyBallers Buy-Hold-Sell Chart (All Players)
As the 2026 NFL Draft approaches, we are gearing up with our first rookie fantasy football mock draft. In this draft, we
For our now 99-part “Does It Matter?” series we dig deep into all metrics under the sun to find which matter and
For the 98th installment in our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked at one of the most niche statistics for the Tight