The Projected 100.0 SPS QB In The 2026 NFL Draft
11/12/2025
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To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the
For the 85th installment in our “Does It Matter?” series, we tackled the question of whether a tight end’s arm length can help predict their future success in fantasy football. We applied standard statistical analysis to determine if this single physical measurement shows any meaningful correlation with elite-level fantasy production. This information provides a powerful, objective benchmark that can be valuable when trying to decide between two players or simply forming a conclusion on a single prospect. Here are all of our findings.
To start, we examined the top 50 PPR fantasy football finishers at the Tight End position every season since 2003. Throughout this article, you’ll see references to the “top 10” and the “bottom 10.” The “bottom 10” refers specifically to the players who finished between 41st and 50th in fantasy scoring each season.
Why the top 50? To strike a balance between isolating elite success and establishing a meaningful baseline for comparison, we focused on the top 50 tight ends in PPR scoring each season since 2003. Limiting the scope to 50 players allowed us to avoid skewing the data with fringe roster players (who clearly have little chance of cracking the Top 10) while still having enough meaningful data points for statistical analysis. To do this, we needed a comparison group that was statistically distinct from the elite tier. The 41st-50th place finishers provide that clear contrast, allowing us to effectively compare the athletic profiles of top performers against those of lower-tier players.
Our first step was simple: we created an averages chart comparing the arm lengths of the Top 10 finishers, 11th-30th finishers, and the 31st-50th finishers since the 2003 season. From this, no immediate trend emerged suggesting that higher or lower arm lengths had a direct, linear correlation with higher fantasy scores. In fact, the data was counterintuitive. In 12 of 21 seasons (57.1%), the Top 5 overall fantasy finishers at the position actually registered a lower average arm length than the players who finished in the 31st-50th range. This suggested that a broad look at averages may not reveal the predictive power of the metric.
Knowing that overall averages did not prevail any results, we segmented the data by charting all Top 10 finishers since 2003 and placing them into 0.5-inch rounded arm length buckets. A slight trend did begin to appear with this approach, suggesting that higher arm lengths correlated with high fantasy scores more times than not as evidenced by the comparative weight and distribution of the Top 10 vs. Bottom 10 charts. However, even this required some interpolation as it was not clear and obvious. You can see both charts below with the top 10 chart coming first:
To establish a truly applicable threshold, we needed a measurement that historically signaled top-level consistency and minimized the appearance of unique players who succeeded despite their metrics. This would isolate consistent performers from statistical outliers. To do this, we created a differences chart. This chart compared each arm length group (plus the next 1-inch) and subtracted the Bottom 10 results from the Top 10 results within that group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). The initial results suggested that 34 inches and above was a possible top-performing range, getting us closer to a possible threshold, which we will attempt to verify next.
With a possible threshold identified, we conducted quick range adjustments in our spreadsheet to ensure it identified the highest producing and most efficient range possible. After testing various numbers close to the initial finding, we determined that altering the benchmark to 35 inches and above produces a 11.9% higher Top 10 appearance rate than in the Bottom 10. Therefore, the 35 inches and above range is the range you should look for in athletes and will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view seen here:
Due to these findings, Arm Lengths could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
To turn to standard statistical methods, we applied the Pearson correlation coefficient to assess the entire dataset:
Pearson Value: 0.078
This Pearson value confirms a slight positive correlation between arm lengths and future fantasy production when looking at standard statistical methods, though the correlation is not strong enough to be used in isolation. When studying world-class athletes as we are, a Pearson value greater than 0.1 (or less than -0.1) is considered significant. For context, the accompanying Pearson value for QB draft capital – a metric everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting – prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
Next, we compared our findings across the last two decades to spot recent trends and assess how significant our optimal arm length range is for the Top 10, the 11th-40th place finishers, and the Bottom 10. You can see from the decadal differences chart that the statistical significance of this optimal range is a decreasing trend in the most recent decade. This suggests that the evolving nature of the tight end position may be slightly diminishing the necessity of arm length measurements over time from the already questionable significance of it.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 72 | 203 | 73 |
| All 35” and above | 15 | 7 | 1 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 20.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 77 | 216 | 63 |
| All 35” and above | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 9.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% |
While broad statistical methods yielded a low correlation (Pearson: 0.078), if you still wish to use it, look for the following threshold to be met in your Tight End prospects: Tight Ends with arm lengths of 35 inches and above have an 11.9% higher rate of achieving a Top 10 fantasy finish compared to the Bottom 10. Although, the recommendation is to absolutely not use arm lengths in isolation and to only use it if it adds to the predictive ability of a larger analytical model.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 86 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Hand Sizes: Do They Matter? If so, what’s the draft age threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the
Welcome to our now 86-part “Does It Matter?” series dedicated to finding out which metrics matter for fantasy football production. In this
To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the