Updated May 2, 2026.
The 2027 NFL Mock Draft conversation is already louder than the 2027 college football season has any right to make it – and that is mostly because the top of this class is quarterback-rich. Below is our first 2027 NFL Mock Draft of the cycle. The pick order seen below is based on Projected 2026 NFL season win totals, with team needs and public consensus prospect tiers driving who lands where.
To be more clear about the inputs: ESPN’s Jordan Reid mock, PFF’s way-too-early board, CBS Sports’ Cooper Petagna mock, and Bleacher Report’s three-analyst mock all cleared the board on the same handful of names at the top – Arch Manning, Jeremiah Smith, Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, Cam Coleman, Leonard Moore, Colin Simmons, Dylan Stewart, Trevor Goosby, Ellis Robinson IV. Although, where every outlet diverges is on the order. So we built ours from scratch.
Three rules drove the order. First, the picks are decided off the lowest 2026 win totals rather than reverse Super Bowl odds, because over/unders are the cleanest sourced data for projected standings before a snap is ever played. Second, every prospect’s tier comes from agreement across at least two of the four mocks above, not from any single outlet’s board. Third, where outlets diverge sharply on a player’s range, we used team need (current roster, 2026 NFL Draft picks, contract structure) to pick the side. Check out the 2026 NFL Draft First Round Recap, which has the full Round 1 recap from 2026 in Pittsburgh.
Miami opens the board at a 4.5 win total, tied for the lowest in the league with Arizona heading into 2026, and Malik Willis will have a full season to prove himself. Assuming that does not go well, Arch Manning is the consensus favorite to go No. 1 overall. Three of the four mocks we benchmarked (ESPN, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report) have him gone in the top two. None of them sent him to Miami, but the math here is simple: if the Dolphins land at the top of the order, they take whoever their QB1 is.
Dynasty read: Manning lands in Bobby Slowik’s offense – Jeff Hafley’s first-year staff. They will have an uphill battle to build around Manning, with only DeVon Achane as a productive asset.
Arizona’s win total also sits at 4.5 per the win-total projections, and the Cardinals traded Kyler Murray to Minnesota earlier this offseason. They drafted Carson Beck on Day 2 and signed Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew on one-year deals – that is a placeholder room, not a long-term answer. Dante Moore shows up in the top three of every mock we reviewed, which makes him the consensus QB2 of the class. Reid and PFF both had Moore at No. 3 to the Jets; we are routing him one slot earlier to a roster that needs to write the QB plan from scratch.
Dynasty read: A landing spot with Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, Jeremiyah Love, and (at least for now) James Conner is one of the cleanest skill-positions a rookie QB room can land to.
This is our first real divergence from the industry. Every benchmarked mock sent Jeremiah Smith to a top-six AFC team (Dolphins in three of them, Raiders in Bleacher Report at No. 6). With both top quarterbacks off the board, the Jets – who took David Bailey at No. 2, Kenyon Sadiq at No. 16, and Omar Cooper Jr. at No. 30 in the 2026 NFL Draft – have already loaded up on offense around Garrett Wilson without a long-term QB answer. Pairing Smith with Wilson and Cooper could turn New York into the most loaded perimeter trio in the AFC if both of the newcomers produce as NFL players, which is what may make the Jets willing to skip another QB swing in a year they may have to draft one anyway in 2028.
Dynasty read: If this lands, Garrett Wilson’s value goes up, not down. Smith pulls the coverage away; Wilson eats the rest of the coverage.
Cleveland sits at a 6.5 win total per the win-total projections and used the No. 9 pick of the 2026 first round on Spencer Fano at left tackle. The QB room is the unfinished one on this roster, and Julian Sayin is the prospect PFF projects as the No. 1 overall pick in their full mock. We did not put him there, but in a board where Manning, Moore, and Smith are gone, Cleveland gets the Ohio State QB.
Dynasty read: Cleveland landing spots are not historically friendly to rookie QBs, but after taking two WR’s and a Tackle in the first 39 picks in 2026 while rostering Quinshon Judkins, the setup is there for a rookie QB to enter and produce.
The Raiders used the No. 1 overall pick of 2026 on Fernando Mendoza, and the only thing missing from that investment is a true X receiver. Cam Coleman shows up at No. 5 (ESPN), No. 6 (CBS, PFF), and No. 10 (Bleacher Report) across the four mocks – so the consensus tier is locked. The Coleman-to-Raiders connection is the most-cited landing spot in the entire 2027 cycle so far, with PFF, ESPN, and CBS all making the same match.
Dynasty read: Tre Tucker is a complementary piece, not a long-term WR1, and Brock Bowers can handle the Tight End role long term. Coleman in this offense becomes the perimeter threat Mendoza will be missing as a rookie.
Tennessee took Carnell Tate at No. 4 in the 2026 first round, which means the offense is now built around a young perimeter receiver, a recovering offensive line, and whatever Cam Ward becomes in year three. Trevor Goosby slid in at No. 5 in Bleacher Report‘s mock and No. 6 in ESPN‘s mock. He is OT1 in two of the four mocks we looked at.
Dynasty read: Tate and Ward’s 2027 outlook ticks up a notch if Goosby anchors the right tackle spot. Run-game stability also raises the floor on whatever back the Titans are working with at that point.
Atlanta’s edge room is the thinnest of any team picking in the top 10. Colin Simmons went No. 7 to the Saints in PFF‘s mock and No. 8 to the Steelers in Bleacher Report‘s. Atlanta is the more obvious 2027 fit.
Carolina spent its 2026 first-rounder on Monroe Freeling at No. 19, an offensive-line investment that left the corner spot one of the cleanest holes on the roster. Leonard Moore is the consensus CB1 of the 2027 class – PFF had him No. 5 to Tennessee, while ESPN had him at No. 8 to Carolina, the same slot we landed on.
Dynasty read: Bryce Young dynasty managers want to see another offensive piece here, but Carolina’s roster math says defense is the higher-leverage 2027 spend.
Dylan Stewart appears at No. 7 in CBS Sports, No. 7 in Bleacher Report, and No. 9 in ESPN‘s mock. Three of four outlets make the same New Orleans-Stewart match. We agree.
Washington’s 2026 NFL Draft pivoted around Sonny Styles at No. 7, and the secondary still has a CB1 hole. Ellis Robinson IV showed up between picks 9 and 12 across the four mocks (PFF No. 9, Bleacher Report No. 12, ESPN No. 10), which makes him the consensus second corner on the board behind Leonard Moore.
Picks 11-32 can swing on a single injury or coaching change during the 2026 season. Naturally, we will see a lot more variance in these picks from projections. Here is the lightning round, with the team’s projected 2026 win total in parentheses and the most-cited landing spot for that prospect across the four reference mocks.
Four picks above split widely from majority consensus. Manning to the Dolphins at the 1.01 to begin, then the Smith-to-Jets routing is unique to this board – every other outlet sent him to an AFC team that needed an offensive weapon worse than New York does on paper, but New York’s 2026 NFL Draft already bolstered the receiver room around Garrett Wilson, which we think clears Smith for the largest upside-on-arrival role available. The Goosby-to-Tennessee fit at No. 6 is one slot earlier than the next-highest mock had him. And the Atlanta-Simmons match at No. 7 is the cleanest edge-room match in the entire top 10, even if PFF and Bleacher Report had him going to other teams.
While we are talking 2027 prospects, the SPS Rookies page is where every official 2026 SPS grade lives, plus our projected 2027 grades for the names above with 2028 grades before any college tape rolls begins rolling in. Last cycle the SPS was loud on Jaxson Dart, Harold Fannin Jr., and Tyler Warren before consensus caught up, and the SPS is slowly validating an emerging trend that many dynasty managers should be weary of heading into their 2026 and 2027 drafts, plus a clear divergence in the 2026 SPS class from the consensus public big board.
Arch Manning is the favorite. He is followed by Dante Moore, CJ Carr, LaNorris Sellers, and Darian Mensah. Three of the four mocks we benchmarked have Manning No. 1; only PFF has Julian Sayin in the top spot.
The four mocks we used range from three QBs (CBS Sports) to five (ESPN, including QBs in the top 14). Our board has four: Manning, Moore, Sayin, and Sorsby. The 2027 class is the deepest QB tier we will have since the 2024 cycle.
Every reference mock published before the season is built on either projected reverse Super Bowl odds, Vegas win totals, or the analyst’s own gut feeling on prospects. Real draft order will only ‘relatively’ stabilize once 2026 records, midseason injuries, and contract decisions actually settle.
Our 2026 NFL Draft First Round Recap has all 32 first-round picks with dynasty fantasy implications. The full Day 2 and Day 3 winners and losers list lives in our Day 2 + Day 3 winners-losers piece.
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5 veteran losers from the 2026 NFL Draft: Allgeier, Conner, Aiyuk, Ridley, and Wan-Dale Robinson all just had their dynasty floors cracked.
