Linebacker 40 Yard Dash: Does It Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis
12/21/2024
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For part 37 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we attempted to find whether a linebacker’s 40-yard dash time can predict their
In Part 23 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we look into the question of whether weight can be a predictor of success for NFL Tight Ends. By crunching the numbers, we hoped to uncover patterns and trends that could provide valuable insights. Here are all of our findings:
To maintain consistency in our data, we exclusively used NFL Combine numbers. Our dataset was of the top 50 PPR (Points Per Reception) fantasy football finishers annually since 2003.
To begin, we created an averages chart. This would hopefully enable us to visualize the data on a broad level to start to identify any trends. This chart covered average weights for different categories of finishers. Here are the categories we are looking at:
Despite our effort, finding clear trends from this chart was not easy. The data did not show any notable differences in average weight between the top and bottom performers, leading us to dig deeper and segmenting the data out even further, which you will see next.
To seek further insights, we segmented the top 10 finishers by 1-pound increments. This approach will allow us to observe weight distributions more closely among the highest and lowest performers. It was hard to identify a definitive trend, although it does appear that there is a very slight trend of higher weights trending slightly towards higher weights. Here are those charts, with the top 10 chart first:
Our next objective was to pinpoint an applicable weight threshold for NFL Tight Ends where the highest increase in performance occurs while maintaining top-level consistency with fewer unique players. For this, we constructed a differences chart comparing each weight plus the next 5- pounds by subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the desired consistent top level performances we are hoping for. The findings suggest that TEs in the range of 246-270lbs exhibit top performance. This gets us closer to identifying a possible threshold, or range of top performing Tight Ends.
To attempt to validate our hypothesis, we analyzed this weight range among TEs who finished in the bottom 10 since 2003. Out of 204 TEs, 143 were within the 246-270lbs range, accounting for 70.1%. This serves as the baseline for our comparison against top 10 finishers to determine if we identified an average TE weight, or an average top-performing TE weight. That breakdown will be next:
Among all top 10 finishers between 2003-2023, 159 out of 202 were in the 246-270lbs range, accounting for 78.7%. This reflects an 8.6% increase compared to the baseline, indicating a potential identification of the top-performing TE weight. Although this is great, we wanted to fine-tune the range to attempt to find the actual highest producing range, which will be seen next:
To ensure we have the highest producing range, we upgraded our spreadsheet for quick range adjustments. From this, we were able to identify and verify the optimal weight range for top performances. Testing various ranges close to our initial range revealed that 244-266lbs occurs 17.6% more often in the top 10 than the bottom 10. This refined range will be the focus of this study going forward.
For our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, the critical value is simply the threshold at which an outcome change should be expected. We have established critical weight thresholds based on performance thresholds, as seen below:
Due to these findings, 215lbs will be our critical value in our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will attempt to identify successes or busts. Essentially, NFL Tight Ends must have measured in at, or above, 215lbs in order to not be considered a future bust. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2025 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:
To add another layer of statistical analysis to our study, we evaluated the correlation between weight and fantasy performances using standard methods. Those findings are as follows:
A high P-Value (0.795) and a low Rsquared (6.732E-05) indicated no significant correlation. In simple terms, the lower the P-value, the stronger the correlation. 0.05 and below is the threshold which indicates strong correlation. our findings were well above this threshold, indicating no correlation.
Further, the extremely low Rsquared value suggests that only 0.00007% of the variance in fantasy points can be attributed to weight. This means 99.99% of the varieties in fantasy production are influenced by other factors. Ideally, for predictive models looking at world-class athletes, we are hoping for at least a 1.0% Rsquared value. For reference to data which prevailed correlation, part 22 of our “Does It Matter?” series found that Rookie WR Receiving Yards predicts 5.6% of the changes in WR fantasy points. The TE Weight regression chart can be seen below:
By breaking down the data into top 10, 11-40th place, and bottom 10 finishers across the last 2 decades and applying our optimal weight range (244-266lbs), we could spot patterns or shifts. Interestingly, our findings reveal a decrease in the prevalence of TEs within our optimal range in the most recent decade. As you can see, there is a 15.8% drop in the rate at which TEs within this optimal range appeared in the top 10 compared to their presence in the bottom 10, when contrasted with the previous decade.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 98 | 287 | 99 |
| All between 244-266lbs | 96 | 240 | 70 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 98.0% | 83.6% | 70.7% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 96 | 286 | 96 |
| All between 244-266lbs | 81 | 225 | 70 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 84.4% | 78.7% | 72.9% |
We also examined how the 2024 rookie TE class aligns with our identified optimal weight range. This matching provides insight into their potential future success, given our findings.
Our analysis suggests that while weight alone isn’t a definitive predictor of NFL TE success, there is an optimal range that top performers more frequently fell within. That range happens to be 244-266lbs, which indicates a higher potential for future top-performing TEs.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 24 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of TE RAS: Does it matter? If so, what’s the RAS threshold necessary for success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
Everybody Knows Stats Are Cool. But Which Stats Are The Coolest and Mean The Most? Additionally, what are the target benchmarks athletes should aim to achieve in each statistic? That's what this chart answers. Type in your desired position in the "Position" field to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Then, filter the success boost or Pearson value from highest to lowest to see which stats mean the most. Pearson values of 0.1 and higher OR -0.1 or lower indicates correlation. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.49/month!
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For part 37 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we attempted to find whether a linebacker’s 40-yard dash time can predict their
In Part 35 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked to find whether a linebacker’s weight could predict their success in
In the pursuit of finding whether a linebacker’s height plays a critical role in their NFL success, we found a height range
