For our latest 67-part “Does It Matter?” series entry, we looked into the topic of whether a Tight End’s Body Mass Index (BMI) can potentially help forecast their NFL success. Here are all of our findings.
Our analysis began by scrutinizing the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003, utilizing Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy scores. Within this study you will see the term “bottom 10” which refers to players who finished in positions 41st to 50th each season.
Why the top 50? We selected the top 50 to strike a “happy medium.” Including more would have included fringe roster players whom are unlikely to score in the top 10 and therefore would only skew data. Conversely, to compare the worst to the best, we pinpointed the bottom 10 as the “worst” and the top 10 as the best.
Our analyses began by constructing an averages chart which allows for a visualization of the the average BMI for those who finished in the top 5, 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th places since 2003. Surprisingly, there wasn’t a glaring trend, even though a lower BMI’s more times than not ended with better NFL fantasy scores. Specifically, in 13 out of 21 seasons (61.9%), the top 10 finishers boasted lower BMIs than those occupying the 41st-50th brackets in the same season.
We next segmented top and bottom 10 finishers since 2003 out into 0.1 BMI increments. These charts further demonstrated the challenge in pinpointing whether higher or lower BMI is more predictive of success for Tight Ends. By observing the weight and distribution in both of these charts, it is not as easy as it should be to visualize where the higher producing NFL Tight Ends were as far as their BMI. If anything, there is a slightly higher “weight” in the lower BMI’s that resulted in more top 10 appearances than bottom 10.
In our main goal to define the ideal BMI range for predicting Tight End success, we created a detailed differences chart which compares each BMI, plus the next 0.3 BMI, subtracting bottom 10 results from top 10 outcomes. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. This analysis led us to discover that a BMI of 31.7 and below appears to be a promising range for top performance. We will next attempt to verify or debunk this as the top producing threshold.
To ensure we have the best producing range, we conducted a series of alterations to the aforementioned range. After exploring all possible figures near our initial findings, we determined that altering the threshold to a BMI range of 29.3 to 31.4 resulted in a 22.6% higher top 10 appearance rate compared to the bottom 10. This range will now be the focus of our study going forward and is what you should hope for in your favorite athletes.
Due to these findings, BMI could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. Since 28.3 BMI is the lowest BMI seen since 2003 in the top 10, that will be the critical value in the SPS. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profiles. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here.
Using standard statistical methods, we assessed the correlation significance between a NFL Tight End’s BMI (as measured at the NFL combine) and future fantasy production. Here are our key findings:
This value indicates a strong inverse correlation between an NFL Tight End’s BMI and future fantasy success. This means that as BMI gets lower, typically fantasy scores get higher. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
We further compared data across the last two decades to identify whether our optimal BMI range is an emerging or dying trend among the top 10, 11-40th, and bottom 10 finishers. Our decadal differences chart suggests that while the influence of this range is slightly waning, it remains a significant factor in player success.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 77 | 228 | 74 |
| All 29.3 to 31.4 BMI | 47 | 119 | 25 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 61.0% | 52.2% | 33.8% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 88 | 231 | 71 |
| All 29.3 to 31.4 BMI | 76 | 158 | 48 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 86.4% | 68.4% | 67.6% |
What 3 metrics matter the most when scouting a rookie Quarterback? What threshold should Quarterbacks achieve within those metrics to be considered an elite prospect? How much should you value those stats above all other stats? Couldn't answer those questions? Rest easy, we have it handled for you. That's what this chart answers. Sort by importance and/or filter by position. Unlock by signing up with the links provided. $9.99/Year or $24.99 Lifetime access. Cancel anytime.
Our exploration revealed that BMI does have predictive power for helping to predict NFL success for Tight Ends. You should hope for your favorite Tight Ends to be between 29.3 and 31.4 BMI using their NFL Draft Combine data. Use this knowledge to make informed decisions on player evaluation while remembering this as a standalone metric is an aid rather than a definitive tool.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 68 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR): Does it matter? If so, what’s the Y/RR threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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