Jaxson Dart: The Next Household Name Quarterback
05/05/2025
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Jaxson Dart’s journey into the spotlight of the Big Apple began in the town of Kaysville, Utah. Born here, his early years
For our 57th installment of the “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into whether a quarterback’s rookie Yards Per Game (YPG) can be used as a predictor of their future success in fantasy football. By using historical data since 2003, we aimed to identify what the trend is, if any, for predicting future performances and applied our optimal range against the 2024 and 2023 NFL draft classes. Here are all of our findings:
To understand what the future impact of rookie YPG is, we looked at the top 30 quarterbacks each year since 2003. We lined up every players’ yearly Fantasy Football leaderboard finish with their Yards Per Game total in their rookie season. We defined rookie Yards Per Game as the season they started at least 5 games, then we took their yardage total for that season and divided it by how many games they played in. Throughout this study, you will hear the term “bottom 10”, which we define as those finishing 21st to 30th. To ensure rookie-year struggles didn’t skew our results, we deliberately excluded rookie seasons from the Fantasy leaderboards while obviously still taking into account their rookie YPG for their future fantasy leaderboard data entries.
Our analysis began by compiling the average YPG scores for several groups of finishers on a yearly basis since 2003: the top 5, top 10, the 11th-20th, and the 21st-30th place finishers. This data revealed a clear connection between higher rookie YPG and higher fantasy scores. As you can see, 18 out of 21 seasons (85.7%), the top 5 finishers had equal or superior rookie YPG compared to those in the bottom 10 group.
To further understand this trend, we examined top and bottom 10 finishers and sorted them into 10 YPG increments. The distribution of both of these charts showed that quarterbacks with superior rookie YPG typically had better future fantasy football scores. Those charts can be seen below, with the top 10 coming first:
Our main goal was to find a passing yards-per-game threshold where the highest performance increases occur and also which showcases high-performing consistency. To achieve this, we created a differences chart which subtracts the bottom 10 performers’ YPG from the top 10 across each possible 30 YPG segment. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. This analysis indicated that achieving 180 rookie YPG and above consistently correlated with top-level fantasy performances. We will next attempt to verify this as the top producing range.
By testing ranges and thresholds close to what the differences chart revealed to us, we further refined our findings. We determined that 190 and above YPG has a 28.8% increased rate of appearances in the top 10 over the bottom 10. Therefore, and before rounding, 186 and above passing yards per game is what you should look for in a Quarterback who for the first time in their career have 5 games started in a season.
To find the bare minimum that should be expected, we segmented the top 30 fantasy finishers into top 10, 11-20, and 20-30th place groups.
This segmentation identified 100 rookie YPG as a pivotal threshold. This will be the critical threshold for our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will attempt to predict quarterback successes and busts. Essentially, Quarterbacks must have at least 96 (before rounding) Passing yards per game in the first season where they start 5 games minimum to not be considered a surefire future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2026 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:
Applying standard statistical methods to the relationship of rookie ypg and all future fantasy points by the athletes revealed a Pearson correlation value of 0.228, indicating a strong relationship between a quarterback’s rookie YPG and their future fantasy performance. Given our focus on world-class athletes, a Pearson value over 0.1 or under -0.1 is significant for indicating predictive power. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value. This means Rookie YPG to future success means equally as much as draft capital to Running Backs, just in opposite ways.
Nest, we split this range up across the last two decades to see how this trend is evolving. We split it up into different ranges: top 5, 6th-24th place, and bottom 5. As you can see, although the optimal range’s significance is weakening, it still holds significance over all.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 5 | 6 through 24 | Bottom 5 | |
| All count | 49 | 192 | 50 |
| All 190 and above | 46 | 116 | 22 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 93.9% | 60.4% | 44.0% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 5 | 6 through 24 | Bottom 5 | |
| All count | 48 | 197 | 46 |
| All 190 and above | 43 | 160 | 38 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 89.6% | 81.2% | 82.6% |
The final step in our study involved evaluating the 2023 and 2024 Rookie QB NFL classes against our passing yards per game optimal range. These are all of the Quarterbacks who qualify for this metric due to having at least one season where they started a minimum of 5 games.
2023 and 2024 NFL Draft classes in our optimal range (190 Rookie YPG and above):
| Aidan O’connell | 202 Rookie YPG |
| Will Levis | 201 Rookie YPG |
| CJ Stroud | 274 Rookie YPG |
| Bo Nix | 222 Rookie YPG |
| Jayden Daniels | 210 Rookie YPG |
| Caleb Williams | 209 Rookie YPG |
2023 and 2024 NFL Draft classes outside our optimal range (190 rookie YPG and below):
| Anthony Richardson | 165 Rookie YPG |
| Bryce Young | 180 Rookie YPG |
| Drake Maye | 175 Rookie YPG |
Our analysis provided evidence that a quarterback’s rookie passing yards per game is a significant predictor of future fantasy success. We established the 190 YPG threshold as the predictor of more probable top 10 appearances than bottom 10. With standard statistical support, the higher a rookie’s passing yards per game, the better and more likely they are to reach the top 10 past their rookie season.
What metric matters the most when scouting a rookie Running Back? What threshold should Running Backs achieve within that metric to be considered an elite prospect? How much should you value that stat above all other stats? Couldn't answer those questions? Rest easy, we have it handled for you. That's what this chart answers. Sort by importance and/or filter by position. Unlock by signing up with the links provided. $9.99/Year or $24.99 Lifetime access. Cancel anytime.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 58 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Quarterback Rookie TD/G: Does It Matter? If so, what’s the Touchdowns per game threshold necessary for success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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