In fantasy football having foresight to predict situations or player values can be key for forming a dynasty. One player who we think requires having cautious foresight with is Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts. Here’s why it’s best to not move him or to not move for him – whichever may apply to you.
One of the key factors that set Josh Downs apart is the emergence of AD Mitchell on the Colts’ roster. With the arrival of AD, the concern rises of how many targets there may be left for Downs. The Colts boast a crowded offense populated by established stars like Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, and a sleeper Jelani Woods. With the addition of a player like AD Mitchell, who we think is going to be successful, it becomes an even heavier concern for Downs.
When we look at the draft capital invested in the Colts’ receiving corp, Josh Downs is the lowest one at 79th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. In contrast, Michael Pittman was drafted 34th overall in 2020 and Mitchell was taken 52 overall in 2024.
With the emergence of AD Mitchell and the already prominent Michael Pittman, the chance for Downs to end up with a WR3 title is very possible. Pittman, currently under contract for another 3 years, is a valuable asset for the Colts. However, if the Colts view Pittman as expendable after the possible emergence of AD Mitchell, they may consider trading Pittman. After the 2025 NFL season Pittman’s dead cap penalty goes down significantly from $23 million to $5 million. This hypothetical shift could elevate Downs’ fantasy value significantly, making him a player you should consider buying before the 2025 season if that situation is what unfolds.
In his rookie season, Josh Downs showcased his skills by amassing 771 yards and 2 touchdowns. This placed him 43rd in PPR among all WRs. While his rookie stats may not have put him at the top of fantasy leaderboards, these are solid rookie numbers. Downs’ rookie campaign may prove to be a solid foundation for his future success in the league.
In conclusion, Downs has the talent to succeed in the NFL. Although, his situation with the Colts brings major caution signs. Keep a close eye on this situation, and if we begin seeing signs that Pittman is expendable in the Colts eyes such as lower target shares, or if AD Mitchell gets off to a slow start and therefore may be a bust, Downs is a player you should then be buying. Until then, sit tight and wait out this situation. If you hold him currently, don’t sell, as there’s enough possibility for his value to rise. On the other hand, don’t buy him because he might just stay a WR3 for too long, making him not worth the price.
BrainyBallers Buy-Hold-Sell Chart (All Players)
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