NFL Tight Ends: Can Rookie Yardage Seasons Help Predict Future Success?

For our newest 71-part “Does It Matter?” series entry, we analyzed the future implications of an NFL Tight End’s rookie season yardage. Our goal was to determine if this metric can help predict their future success. In this article you will see historical trends being examined and statistical analyses. Here are all of our findings:

Methodology

Our study focused on the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003, specifically using PPR (Points Per Reception) fantasy scores. Throughout this article you will see the term “bottom 10” which is used to refer to players who finished 41st-50th place each season.

Why did we choose only the top 50? We aimed to find a “happy medium.” Extending beyond the top 50 might include fringe roster players who are unlikely to score in the top 10, therefore only skewing the data. Although, we still wanted to compare the best performers with the worst. To do this, we selected players finishing 41st-50th to contrast with the top 10 finishers.

TE Averages Chart

We began our analysis by creating an averages chart. This chart included the average for finishers in various brackets: the top 5, top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th places. This data highlighted a clear trend: higher rookie yardages were generally associated with better future NFL fantasy performances. As you can see, in 20 out of 21 seasons (95.2%), players finishing in the top 10 had significantly higher rookie yardages compared to those finishing between 31st-50th places. This began the strong belief that rookie performances do correlate to future fantasy success.

Segmented Top & Bottom 10 TE Finishers Since 2003

Further analysis involved segmenting the top and bottom 10 finishers since 2003 into 50-yard increments. This approach provided a higher granular insight into the correlation between rookie yardage and fantasy success. By comparing the weight and distribution of performance within both of these charts, the trend we noticed was as follows: NFL Tight Ends with higher rookie yardage seasons typically had greater success in their subsequent years.

Tight End Rookie Yards Differences Chart Analysis

Our main goal was to identify a rookie yardage threshold that correlates to more consistent top-level performances amongst NFL tight ends.

To do this, we developed a differences chart. This compares the top and bottom 10 performances at each yardage, plus the subsequent 200 yards by subtracting the performances of the bottom 10 from the top 10 within those groups. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. This chart suggested that NFL tight ends with 200 yards or more frequently performed at top levels, guiding us closer to finding a definitive range.

Verifying the Optimal TE Rookie Yardage Range

Using our findings from the differences chart, we made adjustments in our spreadsheet to refine this optimal range. After testing various numbers near the indicated range, we established that a threshold of 250 yards and above yields a 49.2% higher top 10 appearance rate compared to the bottom 10. This emerged as the optimal yardage range. Before rounding, this is 226 yards.

Star-Predictor Score (SPS) Predictive Model

Due to these findings, Rookie yardage could play a factor in our Post-Rookie Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profiles. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here.

TE Rookie Yards Pearson Correlation Insights

To solidify our findings, standard statistical analyses were also performed. We looked at the correlation coefficient to affirm or reject there being a relationship between rookie yardages and long-term success. From this, a significant trend was observed. Applying these standard statistical methods, the correlation coefficient was calculated as 0.311. This shows a strong correlation between a tight end’s rookie season yardage and their future fantasy production. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.

Comparing Across Decades

We extended our analysis by comparing data across the last two decades to uncover timely trends in our identified optimal range’s significance. The results illustrated in the decadal differences chart that while the influence of this range has slightly diminished, it remains a significant factor for consistent top 10 performances. That chart can be seen below:

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Conclusion

In conclusion, the identification and validation of the 226-yard mark as an optimal range for predicting top performance consistency among tight ends can be used to enhance talent evaluation. While our findings found a correlation between rookie season yardages and future successes for tight ends, this analysis serves as a tool for informed decision-making rather than a stand-alone future predictor.

More Data Next Week!

Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 72 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Wide Receiver College Yards per Attempt: Does it matter? If so, what’s the Y/A threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!

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