Linebacker 40 Yard Dash: Does It Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis
12/21/2024
No Comments
For part 37 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we attempted to find whether a linebacker’s 40-yard dash time can predict their
For part 22 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into the often debated topic of height and its impact on the success of NFL Tight Ends. By running through our datasets, we attempted to discover whether height could be a reliable predictor of success in fantasy football rankings. Here’s a detailed breakdown of our methodology and findings.
To maintain accuracy and consistency, we strictly used NFL Combine numbers. Further, we analyzed the top 50 fantasy football PPR finishers since 2003. The “bottom 10” was defined by those ranked 41st to 50th each season.
To begin our detailed analysis, we created an averages chart which categorizes NFL Tight Ends into four different groups: top 5, top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th place since 2003. This allowed us to identify trends, if any, and to better understand height’s potential correlation with performance. Although, from this, the height averages chart did not reveal any clear and eye-opening conclusions.
To dig deeper, we segmented the heights of top 10 finishers into 1/8” height increments. This detailed segmentation revealed a more telling pattern: it appeared that higher finishers were more commonly found within higher height ranges. You can see this by comparing the next two charts, which is the segmented top 10 and bottom 10 charts, in that order.
In an attempt to identify the optimal height range for top-performing Tight Ends, we created a differences chart. This compares each height and the next 1 inch, subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the desired consistent top level performances we are hoping for. This got us closer to our optimal range, which from the chart appears to be 6’3-1/8″ to 6’6-7/8″. Next, we will attempt to verify whether this truly is the top performing range or not.
Next, we looked at data from all TEs who finished in the bottom 10 since 2003. Among 204 Tight Ends, 157 fell within our identified range of 6’3-1/8″ to 6’6-7/8″, accounting for 77%. This provided a baseline for comparison to the top 10.
If more than 77% of the top 10 fell within this height range, then we found a top producing Tight End height, not just an average Tight End height. 181 of 202 top finishers fell within our identified range, accounting for 89.6%. This accounted for a 12.6% increase over our baseline. Therefore, we found a top producing height. Although, we wanted to verify this, so we tested several heights close to our identified height range, which you will see next.
As mentioned, we wanted to verify whether this is in fact the top producing range or not. To determine this, we played with the bottom and top end of this range. This was to see what produces the largest top 10 to bottom 10 percentage increase. By adjusting the top and bottom side of this range, we realized that the range of 6’3-1/4″ to 6’6-1/4″ appears 17.0% more often in the top 10 than in the bottom 10. This range will be the subject of this research going forward.
Next, we wanted to identify different critical height thresholds based on different fantasy performance thresholds. We broke it down into five different thresholds, as seen below, with the lowest heights since 2003 seen in the identified threshold:
Due to these findings, 6’1.25” will be our critical value in our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model, which will attempt to identify successes or busts. Essentially, Tight Ends must have measured in at, or above, 6’1.25” in order to not be considered a future bust. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2025 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:
Next, we wanted to use standard statistical methods to see whether they would provide us correlation support. Although, these standard methods revealed no significant correlation between height and TE fantasy production. These findings can be seen below:
The P-value of 0.0531, which is higher than the desired threshold of 0.05, indicates only weak correlation. Additionally, the Rsquared value came in at 0.0037, suggesting that only 0.4% of the variance in fantasy points can be explained by height. This means that 99.6% of the variability in fantasy production is influenced by other factors. These were close, but not good enough numbers to provide correlation support. For reference to data which prevailed correlation, part 13 of our “Does It Matter?” series found that Height predicts 1.4% of the changes in WR fantasy points. The TE height regression chart can be seen below:
To identify prevailing or emerging trends, we examined the heights of players across the last two decades. We focused on three groups: the top 10 finishers, those ranked 11-40, and the bottom 10 finishers. The trend we observed was a noticeable 22.9% decrease in the rate at which players within our identified optimal height range appeared in the top 10 finishers in the most recent decades compared to the earlier decade.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 98 | 287 | 99 |
| All Between 6’3-1/4 and 6’6-1/4” | 88 | 199 | 59 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 89.8% | 69.3% | 59.6% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 96 | 286 | 96 |
| All Between 6’3-1/4 and 6’6-1/4” | 86 | 234 | 79 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 89.6% | 81.8% | 82.3% |
Applying our findings to the rookie Tight End class, we assessed which ones fit within our identified optimal height range. By aligning their height with our optimal range, we could pinpoint those more likely to have successful NFL careers. Those findings are seen below:
These findings highlighted the impactful role of height in NFL Tight End performances. Our research indicated that the height range between 6’3-1/4″ and 6’6-1/4″ is the sweet spot for Tight Ends, where more elite performances occur. Unfortunately, our regression testing was a near miss for supporting a strong correlation between height and fantasy output.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 23 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of TE Weight: Does it matter? If so, what’s the weight threshold necessary for success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
Additionally, what are the target benchmarks athletes should aim to achieve in each statistic? That's what this chart answers. Type in your desired position in the "Position" field to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Then, filter the success boost or Pearson value from highest to lowest to see which stats mean the most. Pearson values of 0.1 and higher OR -0.1 or lower indicates correlation. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $0.49/month!
BrainyBallers Buy-Hold-Sell Chart (All Players)
Make Money on BrainyBallers’ (Or anyone’s) content if it turns out to be incorrect!
For part 37 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we attempted to find whether a linebacker’s 40-yard dash time can predict their
In Part 35 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked to find whether a linebacker’s weight could predict their success in
In the pursuit of finding whether a linebacker’s height plays a critical role in their NFL success, we found a height range
