Tight End ADOT: Can It Help Predict NFL Success?

In our 70-part “Does It Matter?” series, we wanted to understand if a Tight End’s college career Average Depth of Target (ADOT) could help predict their future success in the NFL. With a focus on statistical analysis, our aim was to provide information that could aid in the decision-making process between prospects. Here are all of our findings:

Methodology

The study involved examining the top 50 fantasy football finishers from 2017 onwards using PPR fantasy scores as the scoring system. Throughout this study, you will see the term “bottom 10”, which we define as the 41st-50th place finishers.

Why the top 50? We wanted a “happy medium” to avoid fringe roster players skewing data but to still contrast the top 10 with significantly worse finishers, so we compared them to those ranking 41st-50th.

TE ADOT Averages Chart Analysis

For our first analysis, we calculated the average ADOT’s of different finisher groups so we can possibly see a visual representation of whether higher or lower ADOT’s resulted in higher performances or not. This analysis revealed an interesting trend: a higher ADOT was typically found in the top 10 finishers more frequently than those in the 31st–50th positions. Specifically, 6 out of 7 seasons (85.7%), top-performing Tight Ends possessed higher ADOTs when compared to the average of the 31st-50th place finishers. This finding showcases the potential of ADOT to be a reliable indicator of future success in fantasy football for Tight Ends.

Segmented Top & Bottom 10 TE Finishers Since 2017

To dive deeper into the visual representations, we segmented the top and bottom 10 finishers into 1.0 ADOT increments. This segmentation illustrated further that there possibly is a correlation between higher ADOTs and greater fantasy success. The relationship was evident in the weight and distribution patterns observed in the next two charts, where you will see the top 10 coming first:

Tight End ADOT Differences Chart Analysis

In our main goal of pinpointing a threshold that signals top-level consistency amongst players, we designed a differences chart. This chart compares the Average Depth of Target (ADOT) of top performers against the bottom 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. We calculated each ADOT along with the next 3.0 while subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10 within that group. Results from this indicated that an ADOT of 7 and above was consistently associated with top performances more than the bottom 10, guiding us closer to identifying an optimal range.

Verifying the Optimal TE ADOT Range

Using our spreadsheet, we adjusted our identified and possible optimal range to ensure accuracy in identifying the highest-performing range for this metric. After testing numbers around the initial range identified in our differences chart, we found that setting the threshold at an ADOT of 8 or above increased the top 10 appearance rate by 18.9% compared to the bottom 10. Before rounding, this is an ADOT of 7.6. Therefore, an ADOT of 7.6 and above is the optimal range you should look for in up-and-coming athletes.

Star-Predictor Score (SPS) Predictive Model

Due to these findings, ADOT could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profiles. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here.

TE ADOT Pearson Correlation Insights

Our analysis next employed standard statistical methods, yielding significant findings:

• Pearson Value: 0.189

This value means there is a strong correlation between a tight end’s college ADOT and future fantasy football production. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.

Start Dominating Rookie Drafts!

What 3 metrics matter the most when scouting a rookie Quarterback? What threshold should Quarterbacks achieve within those metrics to be considered an elite prospect? How much should you value those stats above all other stats? Couldn't answer those questions? Rest easy, we have it handled for you. That's what this chart answers. Sort by importance and/or filter by position. Unlock by signing up with the links provided. $2.99/Month, $19.99/Year, or $59.99 Lifetime access. Rookie Star-Predictor Score (SPS) grades included. Cancel anytime.

Conclusion

Our dive into the correlation between college career ADOT and the NFL success of Tight Ends provides another layer of prospect scouting. This study confirmed the relevance of ADOT as a metric that can assist scouts, analysts, and managers in making informed decisions. You should prioritize Tight Ends with a 7.6 and above ADOT in their college career. While this should not be seen as a surefire metric for predicting a player’s career trajectory without any accompanying metrics, it provides insightful data that can enhance decision-making processes when comparing players or concluding evaluations on an individual player.

More Data Next Week!

Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 71 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Rookie Season Yardage: Does it matter? If so, what’s the yardage threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!

Related Content:

BrainyBallers Buy-Hold-Sell Chart (All Players)

Get Your Products 100% Refunded By Predicting The Next SuperBowl Winner!

Gunnar Helm Stats