Welcome to part 88 of our “Does It Matter?” series, where we analyze years of data to find which metrics can genuinely help predict fantasy football success. In this article, we’re looking at the Tight End position and a lesser recognized NFL Combine metric: the 225-pound bench press.
Does a Tight End’s raw strength translate to PPR points? We number-crunched to find out how much it matters and what benchmark – if any – is optimal.
To find our answer, we analyzed the top 50 PPR fantasy finishers at the Tight End position every season since 2003.
Why the top 50? We needed to find a “happy medium.” Going further would include fringe roster players who were never realistic fantasy starters, which would only skew the data. On the other hand, to find a real correlation we need to compare the best to the worst. Therefore, we focused our analysis on comparing the elite fantasy producers (the “Top 10” finishers) against the bottom of the fantasy-relevant pool (the “Bottom 10,” or those finishing 41st negative 50th).
To begin our study, we created an averages chart comparing the Top 10, 11-30th, and 31st-50th place finishers.
From this, a slight trend appeared: higher bench press reps seemed to correlate with higher fantasy scores. Specifically, we found that in 13 of the 21 seasons (61.9%), the Top 5 fantasy finishers had a higher average bench press rep total than the 31st-50th place finishers. This initial data pointed toward “yes, it matters.”
Next, we charted every Top 10 finisher since 2003 and segmented them into buckets based on their quantity of 225lb bench press reps. When looking at the simple frequency and distribution on these charts, it once again appeared as though higher bench press totals once again correlated more with Top 10 fantasy scores. Although, this data was weighed in a way that the trend was not easy to identify. You can see both of these charts next, with the top 10 coming first:
We wanted to find an applicable threshold which has historically signaled top-level consistency and minimizes the appearance of unique players, therefore showcasing consistent top performers. For this, we made a differences chart which compares each bench press total, plus the next 5 reps, subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10 within that group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). From this it appears as though 18 reps and above appears to be a possible top performing range, getting us closer to an optimal range which we will fine-tune next.
We number-crunched to made range adjustments in our spreadsheet to ensure it identifies the highest producing optimal range. After testing various numbers close to the range our differences chart found, we discovered that altering this range to 22 reps and above produces a 9.6% higher top 10 appearance rate than in the bottom 10. Therefore, this will be the optimal range you should hope for in your favorite athletes and will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, Bench Presses could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
Pearson Value: 0.025
This shows no correlation between bench press rep totals and future fantasy production when looking at standard statistical methods. When studying world-class athletes as we are, a Pearson value greater than 0.1 (or less than -0.1) is considered significant. For context, the accompanying Pearson value for QB draft capital – a metric everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting – prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
Next, we compared decades to spot recent trends for how significant our Tight End Bench press optimal range is for the top 10, 11 through 40th place, and bottom 10 finishers. Those are as follows: You can see from the decadal differences chart that this optimal range is a decreasing trend in the most recent decade.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 58 | 204 | 65 |
| All 22 and above | 48 | 112 | 37 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 82.8% | 54.9% | 56.9% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 65 | 186 | 51 |
| All 22 and above | 29 | 87 | 25 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 44.6% | 46.8% | 49.0% |
While elite strength (very high reps) wasn’t a clear predictor and lower reps were common, Tight Ends who fell into the 22 reps and above optimal range had a better chance of landing in the Top 10.
This information is helpful when trying to decide between two players in your draft or when coming to a final conclusion on a prospect. While not a metric that should be used as a stand-alone predictor of success, knowing the ideal strength benchmark for Tight Ends is another valuable tool in your recruiting tool-bag.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 89 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Drop Rate: Does It Matter? If so, what’s the Drop Rate threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
BrainyBallers Buy-Hold-Sell Chart (All Players)
Get Your Products 100% Refunded By Predicting The Next SuperBowl Winner!
In the 90th installment of our “Does It Matter?” series, we are looking specifically at the Tight End position. For the metric
To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the
In Part 89 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we crunched the numbers to determine if a Tight End’s College Drop Rate
