In Part 89 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we crunched the numbers to determine if a Tight End’s College Drop Rate is a valid predictor of future success, how much weight you should give it, and what the ideal benchmark is for an elite fantasy assets. Here are all our findings.
To structure our analysis, we examined the top 50 fantasy football finishers at the Tight End position dating back to 2017. We utilized PPR (Points Per Reception) scoring for fantasy leaderboards. Throughout this analysis, you will see references to the “Top 10” (the elite tier) and the “Bottom 10.” For clarity, our “Bottom 10” refers specifically to those finishing 41st through 50th in scoring each season. All Drop Rate data was provided by PFF.
Why the top 50? We selected the top 50 finishers to find a “happy medium.” Extending our data set beyond the top 50 would introduce fringe roster players — those with limited snaps and targets — whose lack of opportunity would only skew the data. However, simply looking at the top 20 or 30 wouldn’t provide enough variance to spot a trend. By isolating the 41st–50th place finishers to contrast against the Top 10, we can clearly see what statistical traits separate the league winners from the others.
To begin visualizing the impact of drop rates, we created an averages chart which segments the field into three tiers: the Top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th place finishers. From this, a trend emerged: Lower drop rates correlate with higher fantasy scores.
This data suggests that players with lower drop rates are far more consistently likely to finish in the top 10. In fact, in 6 out of the last 7 seasons (85.7%), the Top 5 fantasy finishers had significantly lower drop rates than the 31st–50th place finishers. This began dispelling the notion that “drops don’t matter because good players earn enough targets to overcome them.”
Next, we charted every Top 10 finisher since 2017 and segmented them into rounded 1% drop rate buckets. When analyzing the weight and distribution of these charts, the distribution of Top 10 finishers looks relatively even with the bottom 10. If anything, it appeared as though these charts actually go against the belief that lower drop rates correlate with higher fantasy scores, although there is a lot of testing still to go. Both of these charts can be seen next, with the top 10 coming first:
Our main goal was to find an applicable threshold which has historically signaled top-level consistency. Therefore, we had to minimize the appearance of unique outliers and separate them from the consistent performers. To do this, we created a differences chart. This chart compares each drop rate bucket plus the next 1.0%, subtracting the “Bottom 10” results from the “Top 10” within that specific group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). From this test, it appeared as though 7.0% was a possible top-performing range, giving us a baseline to work from.
Next, we number-crunched further to ensure we identified the highest producing range. After testing various numbers close to the baseline our differences chart showed, we found that altering this range to 9.0% and below produces a 16.7% higher Top 10 appearance rate than in the Bottom 10. Therefore, the 9.0% Drop Rate and below range is the optimal range you should hope for in your favorite athletes and will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, Drop Rates could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
To verify these findings, we applied standard statistical methods to the dataset.
Pearson Value: -0.125
This value confirms the inverse relationship we observed: as drop rates decrease, fantasy production tends to increase. This shows a meaningful correlation between lower drop rates and future fantasy production when looking at standard statistical methods. This reinforces the idea that sure-handedness is a trait of the elite tier. When studying world-class athletes as we are, a Pearson value greater than 0.1 (or less than -0.1) is considered significant. For context, the accompanying Pearson value for QB draft capital – a metric everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting – prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
So, do college Drop Rates matter? Yes they do. While Drop Rate shouldn’t be the only metric you use, it is a critical metric. The historical data from 2017 to present shows a strong correlation where the most successful fantasy Tight Ends had lower drop rates than the lower fantasy scorers.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 90 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Missed Tackles Forced Top Seasons: Do They Matter? If so, what’s the MTF threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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In the 90th installment of our “Does It Matter?” series, we are looking specifically at the Tight End position. For the metric
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