Tight Ends: Can Shuttle Times Help Predict NFL Success?
01/24/2026
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In the 97th installment of our “Does It Matter?” series we’re looking into shuttle times for Tight Ends. For fantasy football purposes,
In the 90th installment of our “Does It Matter?” series, we are looking specifically at the Tight End position. For the metric this week, we are attempting to find whether a Tight End’s best Missed Tackles Forced (MTF) college season can help predict their future NFL fantasy success.
Is the ability to break tackles in college a prerequisite for fantasy success, or is it just a luxury stat? We crunched the numbers to find the ideal benchmark, determine how much weight this metric holds, and to arm you with information to potentially help decide between two players when you’re on the clock.
To ensure our data is structured properly, we examined the top 50 fantasy football finishers at the Tight End position since 2017. For the leaderboard we looked at PPR fantasy scores only. All MTF stats were sourced from PFF. Throughout this article, you will see references to specific tiers:
We focused specifically on each player’s top college season for Missed Tackles Forced to see if their peak collegiate production translates to the pros.
Why the top 50? We targeted the top 50 finishers to find a “happy medium.” Expanding the dataset beyond this risks diluting the findings with fringe players whose lack of opportunity would only skew the numbers. Conversely, restricting the view to just the top 20 or 30 fails to provide enough variance to identify meaningful trends. By analyzing the top 50 we can specifically contrast the 41st–50th place finishers against the Top 10 which isolates the statistical traits that truly separate league winners from the rest.
To begin our analysis, we created an averages chart comparing the Top 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th place finishers since 2017. When looking strictly at the broad averages, a surprising trend emerged: lower MTF top college career seasons actually correlated with higher fantasy scores more times than not.
This initial sweep suggests that pure tackle-breaking volume isn’t the sole driver of elite fantasy production. Here is the full breakdown:
This could suggest that elite fantasy TEs often rely more on other things such as separation, route running, and volume catching rather than the raw physicality required to force missed tackles. However, averages can be easily skewed by outliers, which leads us to our next step.
To dig deeper, we charted the Top 10 finishers since 2017 and segmented them into rounded 1.0 MTF top season buckets. When we view the data this way the narrative shifted. By comparing the weight and distribution of the charts, it began looking like slightly higher MTF top seasons actually correlate more with higher fantasy scores.
Our main goal was to find an applicable threshold that signals top-level consistency while minimizing the noise of unique outlier players. Essentially, we wanted to showcase where the consistent performers live.
To do this, we created a Differences Chart. This compared each MTF top season (plus the next 3.0) and subtracted the “Bottom 10” results from the “Top 10” results within that specific group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). From this analysis, it appeared that 6 MTF and above was a possible top-performing range, getting us closer to identifying an optimal range.
Next, we made range adjustments in our spreadsheet to ensure we identified the absolute highest producing range. After testing various numbers close to what our differences chart showed, we found that widening the scope slightly yielded better results. Altering this range to 4 MTF and above produced a 22.3% higher Top 10 appearance rate than in the Bottom 10. Therefore, 4+ Missed Tackles Forced in a Tight Ends top college season is the optimal benchmark you should hope for in your favorite athletes and will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Despite identifying a useful threshold for probability, we still needed to run standard statistical correlation tests to see if there was a linear relationship across the board. Here is the result to that test:
Translation: This shows no correlation between top MTF college seasons and future fantasy production when looking at standard statistical methods. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
Due to these findings, Missed Tackles Forced could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
Don’t just draft for this year. Gain the knowledge needed to position yourself to secure your future with SPS rookie data.
So, does it matter? Only as a threshold. When you are torn between two prospects and if you believe in this metric, favor the player who clears this 4+ MTF bar. The Pearson value of 0.004 proves that simply racking up broken tackles does not guarantee fantasy points. Therefore, this metric absolutely should never be used in isolation even if you do believe in it.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 91 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Catch Radius: Does It Matter? If so, what’s the Catch Radius threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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