The Projected 100.0 SPS QB In The 2026 NFL Draft
11/12/2025
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To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the
For the 81-part “Does It Matter?” series, we crunched the numbers to answer another question for fantasy football scouting: Can a Tight End’s college Contested Catch Percentage help predict their future success in the NFL? Further, how significant is this metric, and what is the ideal benchmark or range for fantasy managers to look for? We applied standard statistical analysis to test the correlation, and the results provide concrete data that can be instrumental when deciding between two players or reaching a final conclusion on a specific prospect. Here are all of our findings.
To structure our analysis, we needed a data set that included both elite and low-end fantasy production. The Fantasy Football data came from PPR scoring formats, and the college contested catch percentages were sourced directly from PFF.
Why only the top 50? The reason we chose the top 50 yearly fantasy football finishers since 2019 was to find a “happy medium”. Extending the analysis further would have included fringe roster players who would only skew the data. Our primary goal was to compare the very best to the low-end performers. Therefore, we focused on the 41st-50th place finishers each season — which we designated as the “Bottom 10” — to establish a statistically meaningful contrast against the elite Top 10 finishers.
Our first step was to establish baseline averages. We created an averages chart spanning the study’s entire history, averaging the contested catch percentages for four distinct groups: Top 5, Top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th place finishers.
From this look, a clear trend began to emerge: higher contested catch percentages typically correlated with higher fantasy scores. This trend was best exemplified when comparing the most dominant performers to the low-end group. Specifically, the Top 5 fantasy finishers had a higher average college contested catch percentage than the 31st-50th place finishers in 5 out of 6 seasons.
Next, we charted the Top 10 finishers since 2019 and segmented their college Contested Catch Percentages into 10.0 rounded percentage buckets (e.g., 50.0%-59.9%, 60.0%-69.9%, etc.). A slight but definite trend appeared: higher contested catch percentages correlated with higher fantasy scores more often than not. You can come to this conclusion by comparing both charts below, with the top 10 coming first:
Our next goal was to find an applicable threshold which has historically signaled top-level consistency and minimizes the appearance of outlier players, therefore showcasing a consistent top performing range. To zero in on this number, we constructed our Differences Chart. This chart compared the difference between the Top 10 and Bottom 10 appearance rates within each 10.0% contested catch percentage bucket. By subtracting the Bottom 10 results from the Top 10, we could identify where the greatest positive difference lays. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). From this, it appeared that 50.0% and above represented the possible top-performing range for tight ends, bringing us closer to an optimal range.
After making range adjustments in our spreadsheet, we were able to ensure the highest producing range was identified. We found that altering this range slightly to 46.0 and above produces a 27.5% higher appearance rate in the Top 10 finishers than in the Bottom 10 since 2019. This 46.0+ range is the optimal target you should hope for in your favorite athletes and will be the subject of our study going forward. This range will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view seen here:
Due to these findings, Contested Catch Percentages could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
To validate our findings further, we applied the Pearson correlation coefficient to the raw data:
Pearson value: 0.184
This value shows a strong correlation between a tight end’s college contested catch percentage and their future fantasy production when looking at standard statistical methods. When studying world-class athletes as we are, a Pearson value greater than 0.1 (or less than -0.1) is considered significant. For context, the accompanying Pearson value for QB draft capital – a metric everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting – prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value. This comparison reinforces that Contested Catch Percentage is a genuinely significant metric.
This extensive analysis provides fantasy managers with a powerful, data-driven metric to help assess draft prospects and solidify their conclusions on a player’s long-term success potential. The 46.0% Contested Catch Percentage threshold is now a proven filter for elite-level production.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 82 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Draft Age: Does It Matter? If so, what’s the draft age threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the
Welcome to our now 86-part “Does It Matter?” series dedicated to finding out which metrics matter for fantasy football production. In this
To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the