For the 79th installment of our “Does It Matter?” series, we investigated a key college metric for Tight Ends: their single-season best PFF Receiving Grade. Can this collegiate data point help predict future NFL success? We dove into the data to find if there’s a correlation, how much it matters, and what benchmark fantasy managers should look for. Here are all of our findings.
To begin our research, we established a clear methodology. We analyzed the top 50 PPR fantasy football finishers at the tight end position every season from 2016 to the present day, with all college receiving grades sourced from Pro Football Focus (PFF). Throughout this article, we compare the “Top 10” finishers against the “Bottom 10,” which refers to those who finished as the TE41 through TE50 in a given season.
Why only the top 50? We chose this range to find a “happy medium.” Expanding the dataset further would have included fringe roster players who rarely have top-10 potential, which would only skew the data. Conversely, to truly measure the difference between the best and the rest, we needed a grouping of players statistically different from the elite top 10. The 41st-50th place finishers provided that ideal comparison point.
Our first step was to create an averages chart comparing the top college PFF receiving grade for different tiers of finishers: the top 5, top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th. From this, A distinct trend quickly emerged. We found that a higher receiving grade in college generally correlated with higher fantasy finishes in the NFL. The evidence was consistent: in 100% of the seasons analyzed (6/6 seasons), the top 5 fantasy tight ends possessed a higher average top college receiving grade than the tight ends who finished between 31st and 50th. This initial finding confirmed we were on the right track and that the connection was worth exploring deeper.
Next, we drilled down further by charting the top 10 finishers since 2016 and segmenting them into buckets based on every 5.0-point increment of top PFF receiving grades. This closer look revealed again that higher receiving grades correlated with high fantasy scores more times than not, as was clear from the weight and distribution of the data. You can see those two charts next, with the top 10 coming first:
With a general trend established, our next goal was to find an applicable threshold which has historically signaled top-level consistency while minimizing the appearance of unique, one-off players. To do this, we created a “differences chart” which compares the appearance rates of top-10 finishers versus bottom-10 finishers within specific PFF grade brackets. We took each top college PFF Receiving Grade season (and the next 5.0 points) and subtracted the quantity of bottom-10 finishers from the quantity of top-10 finishers within those groups. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This method showed that a grade of 75.0 and above was a potential top-performing range, which we will look deeper into next to verify.
To refine this further, we made quick range adjustments in our spreadsheet to identify the highest-producing bracket. After testing various numbers, we found our optimal range: a top college PFF receiving grade season of 80.6 or higher. This range produces a 40.8% higher top-10 appearance rate than in the bottom 10. Therefore, this benchmark will be the range you should look for in your favorite athletes and will be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, Receiving Grades could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL – some of which are proprietary to BrainyBallers – providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
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To validate our findings, we applied standard statistical methods. This analysis yielded a Pearson Value of 0.266 between top PFF Receiving Grade seasons and fantasy points. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation of -0.1 or lower when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value. Therefore, our result of 0.266 shows a strong positive correlation between a Tight End’s top PFF Receiving Grade season in college and their future fantasy production.
Based on our analysis, a tight end’s best single-season college PFF Receiving Grade is a valuable metric in projecting their future fantasy success. The data indicates that players who achieved a top receiving grade of 80.6 or higher in college have a significantly greater chance of becoming a top-10 fantasy tight end.
While this metric should not be the only tool you use, it is a powerful tiebreaker. When you’re debating between two prospects, use their college receiving grade as a key piece of evidence. It provides a data-driven look at a player’s proven ability to perform at a high level, which, as we’ve found, translates to the pros.
Our analysis revealed a clear and useful connection. We found a specific range of PFF receiving grades that appeared at a much higher rate among elite fantasy tight ends compared to their lower-performing counterparts. This metric can be a powerful tool when you’re on the clock, trying to decide between two promising prospects or seeking a final piece of evidence to solidify your opinion on a player.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 80 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Top PFF Run Blocking Grade Seasons: Do They Matter? If so, what’s the RBLK Grade threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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