For the next installment into our 80-part “Does It Matter?” series, we crunched the numbers to uncover whether a Tight End’s single-best college season PFF Run Block (RBLK) grade can help predict their NFL success. All our questions were whether this metric matters, how much it matters, and benchmarks within it which have indicated top level success historically. Let’s dive in.
For this analysis, we examined the top 50 PPR fantasy football finishers at the Tight End position every season since 2016. All college run block grades were sourced from Pro Football Focus (PFF). Every grade seen was a Tight End’s top PFF RBLK grade, not just their senior or last season. To create a clear comparison, we established a “bottom 10” group, which refers to the players who finished 41st-50th in fantasy scoring each season.
Why only the top 50? Our selection of the top 50 finishers was to find a “happy medium”. Extending the sample size further would include fringe roster players, whose low scores would inevitably skew the data and obscure meaningful trends. Conversely, to establish a clear distinction between elite and underperforming players, we needed a reliable comparison group. The 41st-50th place finishers provided this contrast, allowing for a thorough analysis against the top 10 performers.
To begin, we created a chart which averages the single-best college PFF RBLK grades for different tiers of finishers: the top 5, top 10, 11-30th, and 31st-50th. A distinct pattern quickly emerged from this: higher-end fantasy producers consistently posted better RBLK grades in college.
Specifically, in 100% of the seasons analyzed, the top 5 fantasy TEs had a higher average college RBLK grade than those who finished in the 31st-50th range. This initial finding suggests a strong, positive relationship between college run-blocking grades and professional fantasy output.
Next, we narrowed our focus to the top 10 finishers since 2016 by charting them into 5.0-point buckets based on their best college season RBLK grade. From this it was difficult to come to any conclusions. Although, there appears to be a slightly higher distribution of elite fantasy TEs with higher RBLK grades in the top 10 when compared to the bottom 10. You can see those two charts next, with the top 10 coming first:
Our main goal was to find an applicable threshold which has historically signaled top-level consistency while minimizing the appearance of one-hit wonders, showcasing consistently reliable performers. To do this, we created a “differences chart.” This chart compares the rate of top-10 fantasy finishers to bottom-10 finishers within each RBLK grade bucket while adding the next 5.0 points. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). From this analysis, it appeared that a grade of 65.0 and above was a potential range for top performers. We will next attempt to pinpoint the highest-producing threshold or verify this range as such.
After testing various numbers, we found the optimal range to be 69.6 and above. This specific range produces a 17.7% higher top-10 appearance rate than it does for the bottom-10. Therefore, this benchmark will be the range you should look for in your favorite athletes and will be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, Run Block Grades could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL – some of which are proprietary to BrainyBallers – providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
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To validate our findings, we applied standard statistical methods. The results were telling:
Pearson Value: 0.128
This value shows a strong correlation between high PFF RBLK Grade seasons and future fantasy production. When studying world-class athletes as we are in this series, a Pearson value greater than 0.1 (or less than -0.1) is considered significant. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
So, does a Tight End’s top college PFF Run Block grade matter? The data indicates that it absolutely does. A strong positive correlation exists, and we’ve identified a key benchmark: a top college RBLK grade of 69.6 or higher. This metric is invaluable when deciding between two prospects or confirming an existing evaluation of a player. When you see a tight end prospect who has hit this mark, it’s a statistically-backed indicator of their potential for future fantasy success.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 81 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Contested Catch Percentage: Does It Matter? If so, what’s the contested catch percentage threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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