For our now 99-part “Does It Matter?” series we dig deep into all metrics under the sun to find which matter and which don’t. One statistic we haven’t looked into yet for Tight Ends is their QB Rating When Targeted (PFF). Can a high QB rating when targeted for a Tight End actually predict future fantasy dominance, or is it just a byproduct of good quarterback play? After analyzing all data available since 2015, we have our answer. This analysis provides a framework to help you decide between two players or to determine if a specific player’s breakout is sustainable. Here are all our findings.
To conduct this study, we analyzed the top 50 fantasy football finishers (PPR scoring) at the Tight End position for every season since 2015 – which is when PFF began tracking this metric.
Why the top 50? We chose this range to establish a “happy medium.” If we expanded the data set further, we would move into the territory of fringe roster players who aren’t viable fantasy starters and who therefore would naturally just skew the data. Conversely, we needed a distinct group to compare against the elite. By looking at the “Bottom 10” (those finishing 41st–50th), we created a clear contrast against the Top 10 to see which metrics actually differentiate the stars from the benchwarmers.
Our initial step was creating an averages chart spanning from 2015 to the present, segmenting players into the Top 5, Top 10, 11th–30th, and 31st–50th finishers. The results from this were clear: higher QB Ratings When Targeted consistently aligned with higher fantasy finishes. In 100% of the seasons studied (6/6), the Top 5 finishers had higher QB Ratings When Targeted than the finishers in the 31st–50th range. This suggests that QB Ratings when targeted could be a prerequisite for elite fantasy production.
To further visualize this trend, we charted Top 10 finishers since 2015 and segmented them into every rounded 1.0 QB Rating bucket. This allowed us to look past simple averages and examine the “weight” of the data.
Although, comparing the distribution of these buckets between top and bottom finishers did not prevail any obvious trends like the averages chart did. You can compare both charts next, with the top 10 coming first:
To find an applicable threshold that signals top-level consistency and filters out the “one-hit wonders,” we developed a Differences Chart. This compared each QB Rating plus a rolling window of the next 3.0 QB Ratings, subtracting the Bottom 10 results from the Top 10 results within that specific group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). The goal was to minimize the appearance of unique, outlier players and instead highlight those who consistently perform at a high level. Unfortunately, the initial look from this did not easily prevail an optimal range like it typically does, although we next will utilize iterative testing to find the exact “optimal range” for fantasy success.
We performed a series of range adjustments in our dataset to verify which specific number identified the highest concentration of elite producers. While 97 was a strong indicator, our testing revealed that a QB Rating of 98 and above is the true “optimal range.” Tight Ends who hit the 98+ mark appeared in the Top 10 at a 28.3% higher rate than those in the Bottom 10. This is significant as it represents the threshold where efficiency reliably translates into elite fantasy scoring. When evaluating players, 98+ therefore is what you should look for in prospects and will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, QB Ratings When Targeted could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL – some of which are proprietary to BrainyBallers – providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
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To ensure these findings weren’t just anecdotal, we applied standard statistical methods to the data.
In the context of fantasy football’s high variance, this value demonstrates a strong correlation between college QB Ratings When Targeted and future fantasy production. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when studying world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value – meaning earlier drafted QB’s perform better.
When you are stuck between two Tight Ends or looking at a possible waiver wire addition, this metric can be your tiebreaker.
This data-driven approach helps remove the guesswork, allowing you to invest in efficiency that translates to points on the board.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 100 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Breakout Age: Does It Matter? If so, what’s the Breakout Age threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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