Welcome to another installment of our 87-part “Does It Matter?” series, where we crunch numbers to find out which athletic and production metrics help predict fantasy football success. Today, we’re looking at one of the less recognized measurable for pass-catchers: wingspan.
The theory is simple: a player with a longer wingspan has a wider catch radius, giving them an advantage in contested catches and making them a bigger target for quarterbacks. But does this theory hold up when we look at the data? We dug in to find out if a Tight End’s wingspan can help predict future success, how much it really matters, and if there’s an ideal benchmark to target.
To get our answers, we compiled a massive dataset of the top 50 PPR fantasy football finishers at the Tight End position every season from 2013 to the present. We then segmented this data into tiers to see where the elite producers separated themselves. For this study, we paid special attention to the 41st-50th place finishers to create a clear “hit vs. miss” comparison. We refer to this group throughout this study as the “bottom 10”.
Why the top 50? We needed to find a “happy medium.” Analyzing only the top 20 or 30 finishers might prevail too similar of fantasy finishers without distinct differences since all are relatively successful players. Conversely, expanding the dataset to the top 100 would include fringe roster players and those who are likely to score minimal points, which would only skew the data. Our goal was to compare the best against the worst, meaning we needed a sample of players who were consistently on rosters but performed significantly worse than the Top 10. The 41st-50th place finishers represented this baseline perfectly, allowing us to isolate the metrics that separate elite producers from the rest.
At first glance, the data seemed to point in an unexpected direction. We created an averages chart comparing the Top 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th place finishers. A slight, counter-intuitive trend emerged: lower wingspans appeared to correlate with higher fantasy scores. In fact, in 7 of the 9 most recent seasons with data (a 77.8% rate), the top 5 fantasy Tight Ends actually had a lower average wingspan than the 31st-50th place finishers. This suggested that perhaps length wasn’t the key, and maybe Tight Ends with shorter arms were quicker or better route-runners.
To test this, we charted all top-10 finishers since 2013 and segmented them into 1/4” rounded wingspan “buckets.” This is where our initial theory fell apart. There was no clear trend at all. The distribution of elite wingspans was all over the map, proving that a simple “higher is better” or “lower is better” correlation didn’t exist. You can compare the weight and distribution of both the top and bottom 10 charts next, with the top 10 coming first:
Since a simple linear trend wasn’t there, we pivoted our analysis. We wanted to find an applicable threshold that has historically signaled top-level consistency while minimizing the appearance of “one-hit wonder” unique players. The goal was to find a range that showcases consistent top level performances.
To do this, we created a “differences chart.” This chart compares each Tight End wingspan measurement (plus the next 1″) by subtracting the percentage of Bottom 10 finishers from the percentage of Top 10 finishers within that specific group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). From this analysis, a clear trend emerged. It appeared as though 78.5 inches and below was a possible top-performing range, getting us much closer to a defined “sweet spot.”
The differences chart gave us a great starting point. We then went back to our spreadsheet and made quick range adjustments, number-crunching various thresholds to ensure we identified the highest-producing range possible.
After testing various numbers close to the 78.5″ range our chart indicated, we found the optimal cutoff. Altering this range slightly to 77.5 inches and below produces a 11.5% higher Top 10 appearance rate than in the Bottom 10. This range proved to be the sweet spot that best capturing elite producers while filtering out the bottom-tier finishers. Therefore, this range will be the optimal one you should hope for in your favorite athletes and will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, Wingspans could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
It’s important to note that while we found a predictive range, standard statistical methods that look for a simple linear correlation came up empty.
This value is too close to zero, showing no meaningful correlation between wingspan and future fantasy production. This confirms our earlier finding: you can’t just say “a longer wingspan is good” or “a shorter wingspan is good.” The relationship isn’t linear. The value is in identifying the specific benchmark that separates the hits from the misses. When studying world-class athletes as we are, a Pearson value greater than 0.1 (or less than -0.1) is considered significant. For context, the accompanying Pearson value for QB draft capital – a metric everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting – prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
So, does wingspan matter? No, but it can matter in a very specific way.
It is not a silver bullet, and the Pearson value proves it’s not a simple 1-to-1 relationship. A player with a 80-inch wingspan isn’t a guaranteed star, and a player with a 75-inch wingspan isn’t doomed to fail (though our data likes his odds better). However, our findings are clear: Tight Ends with a wingspan of 77.5 inches or less have appeared in the Top 10 at a 11.5% higher rate than in the Bottom 10. It’s one more piece of evidence to add to your conclusion, helping you tilt the odds of drafting a hit just a little bit more in your favor. Wingspan should not be used in isolation.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 88 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Bench Presses: Do They Matter? If so, what’s the draft age threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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