Intro:
5 of the last 6. That is how many draft picks the Eagles have put into their defense between the 1st and 2nd round from 2022-2024. It’s not the sexy thing to do in the modern NFL. A league where the increasing emphasis has been on generating more offense for almost 20 years. But that investment is about to see its return tonight.
The Long Grind
Despite having the best QB in the NFL, season long the chiefs offense has lacked explosion seen from previous years. Instead finding favor in more methodical and patient approaches. This can be shown by no better stat than that of KC leading the NFL in plays per drive. The evolution (or de-evolution depending on how you view it) through the 2024 regular season, has seen the Chiefs rank 8th overall in 12 personnel usage (1RBs, 2TEs, 3WR’s).
While only 23rd in 11 personnel usage (1RB, 1TE, 3 WR’s), this is up in the former and down in the latter category almost 8% year over year. This personnel grouping, while unspectacular, has been what the Chiefs have made their living on all year.
Even though the Chiefs offense fucked the Bills defense up and down the field in the AFC championship game, there still exists a significant downside for Kansas City in this matchup.
Leviathan
The biggest roadblock being the Philly defense has thrived against multi-RB and multi-TE personnel groupings all year. Against the teams on their schedule that use 12, 13 and 22 personnel the most, the Eagles surrendered an average of 14.6ppg and 3.86 Yards Per Carry. Giving up a high of 19 points on the road against Baltimore in week 13.
The most simple, but not always the most straight-forward answer is that the Eagles have the talent and defensive structure to completely neutralize and win the interior defense battles. Even against a VERY good Chiefs OL, the same can be possible.
Not – So- Secret Sauce
This is done by answering perhaps one of footballs oldest questions… How to you handle the +1/-1 problem?
Offensive coaches are always looking for ways to create the ‘+1’. That is, to have an extra body in the play structure that the defense simply does not have the numbers to account for. Conversely, defensive coaches are always looking for ways to create the ‘-1’. That is, how can they play gap sound football up front, while not consistently yielding a numbers advantage at the 2nd and 3rd level to the offense.
The Bills defensive coaching staff, like so many others, help to remove the +1 offensive advantage by involving their 2nd level defenders – LB’s and DB’s. When you combine that with the subpar interior defensive line play the Bills had shown at times this season, it gave the Chiefs an opportunity to bait and anticipate the Bills defenders aggressively attacking to fill that extra gap. K.C. did so with their creative and routine use of their various RPO and motion-to RPO passing designs. Something they’ve used on average 8-10% of their total snaps the last 5 seasons.
What’s the Difference Between Me and You?
The difference between Houston and Buffalo is that Philly uses a great deal odd fronts for their “base” personnel. Relying on Jordan Davis to 2 gap, regardless of playing the ‘0’ (heads up on the center) or a shade (off center). This invites a natural double team that opposing offenses have struggled
to consistently beat all year. There’s that magic word – consistently. What Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter and Milton Williams do, beyond tying up an extra gap and body with 3 defenders, further allows the Eagles defense remain in their 2 high shell ‘umbrella’ coverages. That means the 2nd and 3rd level
defenders are able to *MUCH* less aggressively attack downhill into gaps off those same RPO looks that terrorized the Bills.
It’s a powerful, patient, yet flexible scheme that clogs the interior, pushes the pocket and helps keep 2nd level defenders squeaky clean from too much OL contact.
How Does this Look?
How these fronts work against the various groupings.
In the above play, Philly shows their Odd front with a strong side shade from the Jordan Davis. This example of the 1st and 2nd level of the defense working in sync to get ahead of a weakside zone from Pittsburgh. Nakobe Dean triggers into the playside A-gap, preventing any attempt at a double team on the playside 3 tech (Williams).
As a result, the LG cannot ‘cross the face’ of Milton, get his zone step and block integrity set. This frees Zach Baun to play ‘Cloudy vs Clear’, which is why Najee Harris is forced to run into a car wreck of bodies. The fundamental thing this Philly defense does so well up front – getting off initial blocks. When you’re facing a veteran OL like the Chiefs, who don’t draw a lot of holding calls, this might be the most vital aspect of their game.
Against the Northman
This is one of the best examples of their singular talent I’ve found. In this play, Baltimore attempts to use strong-side power (pulling the backside guard) to create/steal a gap. The LG fails to downblock and wash the massive body that Jordan Davis is. Who, surprisingly, shows a great knack for rolling off contact at times for a player of his size. Milton Williams shows a great swipe and over move on the attempted block from the LT. With both IDL winning their reps, the backside pull cannot cleanly reach the front. Causing great disruption to the timing and execution of of this play. Davis rolls in back the wiff for the clean up and the entire thing is nuked before it even gets going.
What makes this play extra special of the 3 I’m going to show you, is that Baltimore is playing a 6th-OL in this formation. Even with the extra beef and pulling the backside guard, the play is still being blown up all while Philly is playing 1:1 up front, maintaining their 3 over 2 integrity on the Ravens receivers.
Lagniappe
3rd and final, against New Orleans. A bit of a different look for Philly, because they’re in an even front (4 DL down) but playing ‘closed’ at both ends. Meaning that the DL is playing to the interior eye/shoulder of the End Man On the LOS at both sides. In this case it only further highlights the defensive
flexibility I speak of with Philly. 4 DL in single gaps means a ‘spill’ to their overhang defender to the field and to their strong side LB (Baun) against runs to the edge.
This is another weakside zone completely blown up because the Center cannot reach block Jalen Carter in time before he gets lateral separation on top of upfield penetration. The receiver motion to strength can be safely looked off by Nakobe Dean staying home. The eye discipline and coverage the Eagles are in allows the DB’s to match on motion backside from those 2 high ‘umbrella’ looks. Included in this ‘zone-away’ rep, Baun not only acts as the backside edge fit, but 2nd level curl to flat
defender protecting from a QB boot and/or a TE leak on said boot action.
It’s a beautiful defensive rep that highlights the defensive flexability, the talent up front, but the sound, disciplined play from the LB’s to go with their processing and understanding on how their defensive scheme at the 2nd and 3rd levels adjust to motions pre-snap and routes post-snap.
There is a commonality to all 3 of these prime examples I’m giving that you may not have picked up on.
Each one of these defensive reps was played with a +1/-1 win from the defense. +1 win on the backend along with a -1 win on the front end. That is, not surrendering a body in the secondary while winning on the defensive front at similar or less numbers as the opposing offense.
In the reps vs the Steelers and Saints, both defensive secondary calls were from the 2 high shell designs that can be anything from cover 4, cover 5, cover 6, cover 9, etc etc. Beyond just drawing neutral up front while using fewer bodies, the Eagles defense creates pressure, generates TFL, sacks and QB hits all while being able to maintain their numbers integrity in the secondary and defensive front.
Devil in the Details.
What does this means for Kansas City? Their RPO success, which created horizontal stress and assignment conflicts against both of their AFC opponents, especially Buffalo, will require significant re-tooling in a short amount of time. Andy Reid is an offensive genius and future HoF’er. However, I know he has lost sleep working to solve this issue on paper. The natural response would be to run the ball off those same RPO looks against 2nd level defenders who are slow playing the ball action.
There is substance to backup this assumption as well. In the NFC, AFC titles and Superbowl, Andy Reid’s RB’s have either matched or beaten their season averages for carries in a game almost every time. That classic ‘pass to setup the run’ line. Only difference for the SuperBowl is that you’ll be running at a 3 man brick wall that Reid has rarely seen in his coaching career before. It will be up to the Eagles defenders to match KC’s need for patience with their own.
Conclusion and Closing
This is where I re-emphasize a common occurance in football; Yes, offense WILL sell tickets, it will bring eyes, ads, media attention and win games. But quality defense and sound run fits will be what wins you championships. If your defensive talent and structure allows you to play lighter box counts on defense,
control gaps, pressure the QB, and not surrender numbers on the backend, then you have something great. It finally feels like the Eagles have the defensive compliment equal to that of their offense.
Ultimately I’m a fan and a passionately devoted student of the game of football, first and foremost. I want to see a good game that will have me thinking, talking about, analyzing and digesting it for weeks. The Chiefs coaching staff is keenly aware of not only what I’ve shown you here, but exponentially more. That said, despite their adjustments and game-plans, tonight the entire City of Philadelphia will be singing Fly Birds Fly! until their lungs give out. Only I believe they’ll be doing it with a 2nd Lombardi Trophy in the case.
Sign off!
Thanks for reading! I’m sorry about the gaps between content. Sadly time is the most needed currency to develop these sorts of things. A currency I’m currently lacking a great deal of. It’s been a fun 2024, the SuperBowl is the bow on top and the final page before we close this particular chapter. I’m looking forward, literally, to 2025 and all that the game of football brings with it. I’m also looking forward for those who follow both Run The 9 and Brainy Ballers to see what we’ve been working on behind the scenes. We’ve got a plate full ranging from NFL rookie reviews to 2025 Draft Prospect evals and rankings. So sit tight, enjoy, and we hope you love reading what we offer as much as we love doing it!
