Updated May 8, 2026
Tyler Warren caught 76 balls for 817 yards across 17 games as a rookie in a season which resulted in him making the Pro Bowl. This total was the most receiving yards by any rookie tight end in 2025. The Tyler Warren 2026 dynasty outlook starts there: a Year 1 floor that already cleared most veteran TEs, with a Year 2 leap baked into the price.
The numbers are clean. 76 receptions on 112 targets, 817 yards, 4 receiving touchdowns, plus 6 carries for 8 yards and a rushing score. He played 899 of the Colts’ 1,075 offensive snaps – 6th-most on the roster, more than double the next-highest tight end. That volume set the Colts franchise record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end.
The Pro Bowl nod sealed it. Warren replaced an injured Brock Bowers as the 18th rookie tight end in NFL history to make the game and the second in Colts history behind John Mackey in 1963.
The film backed the box score. Brian Baldinger logged a Baldy Breakdown on Warren’s Week 3 usage here:
Michael Pittman left. Other than that, not much. That is the bull case.
Shane Steichen returns as head coach and play-caller. Daniel Jones is the listed QB1, with the departing Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard behind him. Mo Alie-Cox is still TE2 and Will Mallory is TE3 – neither poses a target threat. The Colts kept Alec Pierce and Josh Downs, but with the departure of Pittman the target competition is only looking better compared to in October when Warren was already averaging 7+ targets a game.
Steichen praised the role. “Any time you can have a tight end with his ability to run the routes and block the way he blocks is huge,” Steichen said via Colts.com. “He’s an old-school throwback. I like to call him that. Tough, physical, can run all the routes.” That quote is the offensive design map. Warren keeps the every-down job. Chris Ballard added in the same piece: “He’s going to get better, and that’s the exciting thing.” Adding to it, it appears he has bulked up:
Regarding the QB situation, Daniel Jones (Achilles) is on track per Steichen’s April updates. The worst situation for Warren would be relying on Riley Leonard for his targets, which is the biggest risk for his outlook. Although, Riley Leonard has his upside case as well.
The volume case is straightforward. Warren had 112 targets as a rookie. It’s well within reason to assume Year 2 Tight Ends with a returning play-caller, returning starting role, a lost alpha receiver, and Pro Bowl trajectory will only gain targets, not lose them. A 120 target season is the realistic ceiling. At his 10.8 YPR, that is 1,000-1,100 receiving yards.
The touchdown line is the variable. 4 receiving scores on 112 targets is a 3.5% TD rate – below the position average for high-volume tight ends. Positive regression alone gets him to 6-7 receiving touchdowns. Add in the goal-line wildcat package (he already has a rushing TD) and 8 total scores is in the realm of possible outcomes for 2026 with a floor of 70-800-5.
Warren’s PPR ADP currently sits at 60 overall, the TE4 behind Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Colston Loveland (per fantasy nerds). That is the cleanest dynasty asset on the board for a 23-year-old who already produced TE1 numbers as a rookie and has the second-longest production runway of the four. McBride and Bowers are appropriately ahead. Loveland ahead of Warren is the spot the market has wrong. The floor is a top-10 TE, ceiling is a top-3 TE for the next five years.
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