For our 75-part “Does It Matter?” series, we went on a comprehensive analysis to discern whether a wide receiver’s catch radius is a predictor of their future success in the NFL. By evaluating data since 2003, we looked to determine the significance of this metric and establish a benchmark that correlates with high performances. Here is all of our findings:
Our research focused on the top 50 fantasy football finishers from 2003 onward, utilizing PPR (Points Per Reception) fantasy scores. The “bottom 10”, defined as finishers 41st-50th each season, provided a reference point for lower-performing players. All catch radius data was collected from PlayerProfiler.
Why the top 50? We selected the top 50 players to strike a “happy medium.” Including more players would include fringe roster players, which would skew the data, as these players are unlikely to ever achieve top 10 status. Although, we aimed to compare the best with the worst, necessitating a range of players distinctly different from the top 10. Therefore, we used the 41st-50th place finishers to serve as a comparison group against the top 10.
To begin looking for trends, we created averages for top 5, top 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th place finishers from 2008 onwards. Upon analyzing this data, a trend emerged which suggested that players with larger catch radii often achieved higher fantasy scores. In 12 of the 16 seasons studied, the top 10 finishers boasted greater average catch radii compared to those in the 31st-50th places. This was a subtle, yet not definitive, trend that we will look further into next.
Next, we segmented the top and bottom 10 finishers’ catch radii since 2003 into increments of 0.1. This analysis showcased no tendency for either higher or lower catch radii correlating with higher fantasy performances. By contrasting the weight and distribution of catch radius across both of these charts, you can see no correlation between extended or lower catch radius and higher successes. You can see these charts below, with the top 10 coming first:
To pinpoint the ideal catch radius, we constructed a differences chart. This chart compared each catch radius increment, plus the next 0.3 catch radii, by subtracting the bottom 10 performers’ results from the top 10 within that group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. This analysis suggested that a range of 10.4 to 11.5 in catch radius might signal higher performance. We will next verify whether that signal is true or not.
To ensure this range accurately identifies the highest producing players, we made adjustments in our spreadsheet to verify this range as the top producing one. After testing various ranges close to our initial findings, we discovered that adjusting the range to 10.6 to 11.4 catch radius resulted in a 12.0% higher rate of top 10 appearances compared to the bottom 10. Therefore, this refined range is now our optimal range and will be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, catch radius could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL – some of which are proprietary to BrainyBallers – providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
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To find how much it matters, our analysis also incorporated standard statistical methods, which those findings are as follows:
This value indicates no significant correlation between a wide receiver’s catch radius and future fantasy production based on standard statistical methods. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
Next, we compared the last two decades to spot trends regarding our optimal catch radius range and its significance for top 10, 11-40th place finishers, and bottom 10 performers. This chart showed that this optimal range, already with minimal prevalence, appeared even less prevalent in the most recent decade, signaling an even further decline in its importance.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 46 | 150 | 37 |
| All 10.6 to 11.4 | 42 | 124 | 27 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 91.3% | 82.7% | 73.0% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 87 | 235 | 78 |
| All 10.6 to 11.4 | 80 | 186 | 64 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 92.0% | 79.1% | 82.1% |
While our findings on catch radius offer interesting insights, they fall short of what would be known as significant insights. Scouts should consider this metric as part of a larger assessment strategy. A Wide Receivers Catch Radius should only complement other metrics in determining a wide receiver’s potential for success in the NFL and catch radius should never be looked at alone.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 76 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Wide Receiver PlayerProfiler Agility Scores: Does it matter? If so, what’s the agility score threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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